001Hi, I'm Sarah Kemp from the Applied Population Laboratory. I'd like to share with you the highlights from the enrollment projections report that was provided to the district. And what I'd like to do first is share with you an evaluation of last year's projections. I'll go through the background information regarding enrollment, kindergarten population, um what what are your birth trends, um and just some general information about population and housing in the district. I then will uh talk about the methodology methodology that will be used uh to to project future students and then we'll look at the actual projections. So to begin with, we if we look at um the projections from last year and compare it to your current school year, um we can see that the baseline model was the most accurate of the four
002models uh that we provided last year. Very close at only u a8% error rate. If we look at the grade groupings and we look first at the elementary grades, the five-year trend was the most accurate. Um for the middle school, the baseline model again was the most accurate. It was the exact count of your enrollment. And then the high school um we saw that the kindergarten trend was the closest um which was u at 5% uh or 5% error. So, uh, just to keep these this in mind, um, looking at the the projections, um, going forward, uh, we would say that the baseline was probably the most accurate of the four models. Um, I'd also like to point out that we did a 2-year trend last year. Um, and I've returned back to a three-year
003trend this year. So, what is the background information required to um to to inform the projections going forward? We want to look first at the uh total enrollment both at 4K to 12 and 5K to 12. Um you have seen an increase although the last couple of years there has been a slowing of enrollment increase. Um if we look at the uh student enrollment by grade grouping, you actually have seen a slight decline in your elementary grades which is that top line. Um if we go down two lines to that gray line, we see that the middle school has been increasing as well as the high school which is that middle uh line between that green line um showing an increase in in high school. Um and then you can see uh for your 4K
004enrollment at the bottom of the of the graph um where we have seen a decline in the 4K enrollment. So, if we look at kindergarten enrollment, this is important to look at for future students. Um, we see a 10-year trend, which is that red line. We we are showing a a decrease in in that uh number of kindergarteners are trending downward in the long term. But if we look at the most recent trend, which is the last 5 years, um you see an increasing trend in kindergarten enrollment. And that um that trend will be used in the kindergarten trend model that I will show later in the presentation. Um so just keep in mind that that is trending upward that you are seeing an increase in your kindergarten enrollments. If we look at the births
005for the municipalities within the school district, remember that we do not include any of the um Madison births here, but we have the city of uh Sun Prairie in addition to the the three towns that surround the the city. we see a overall long-term trend of steady steady births to a slight decline but pretty much a steady uh number of births going forward for the long term. But if we look at a more recent trend of the last 9 years, we can see that those uh bursts have been trending upwards slightly. um you did see an increase up until uh 2021 and since 2021 we are seeing another decline in births over the last couple of years but the overall 9-year trend is increasing. If we look at then just um some additional information that's
006provided in your report, you have some information about your population within these municipalities. Um as well as the school district um the uh US census uh counts for 2010 and 2020 Shan saw an increase in all grade groupings. I'm sorry, all age categories have increased um from 2010 to 2020. uh especially um in the older ages. Um and then if we look at the population as individually uh you can see the estimates as well as the census data here in table three. Um and you also again are seeing growth in the population especially in the city of Sun Prairie. And then in addition to the h population uh data, we also provide you the housing start information from the last 10 years. There is a table in the in the report that shows it by
007municipality. Um and we see that there has been an increase in housing. This um figure here is showing you the multifamilies and the single families. how how many uh units have been constructed um in this 10-year window from 2015 to 2024. You've seen the most increase percentage-wise um in multifamilies at 64% single families. um you've seen about 2,000 new homes uh which is about 33% of the of the uh total home construction um in in the school district in the municipalities within the school district. So what is the methodology that we um use to project future students? We we use a method called the grade progression ratio method. This is looking at each annual grade progression ratio. It's calculated for each grade pair as you can see from this table. And then each of those
008um pairs are we look at the average of those ratios. We take a 10-year average, a 5-year average, and a three-year average to determine those ratios to project future students. So to give you an example, if we look at that 5-year trend, we look at 5K to first grade, that ratio is 1.010. So that is multiplied by the current kindergarten enrollment. And that will determine then our first grade enrollment for next school year. And we do this, of course, for all of the grades. So this um this figure shows those those ratios in a graphical format. So you can see that most of your ratios are above one. So this indicates that you have an in migration of students from grade to grade. There are a few that are below one but for the majority
009of of these ratios um we see an in a number that is higher than one. We also look at the kindergarten projections um separately from the four 4K and 5K are are are handled separately. Um we provide you that birth to 4K and the 4K to 5K ratios here in table 7. Um you can see that um on average you have had if we average those three trends um you have about 85% of your births entering 4year-old kindergarten. Um and so that um that gives you some indication of of how many uh students have are attending your 4K 4K uh program. Uh the 4K to 5K um is just provided to you but is not used in any of the models. And what we'll be doing to determine the fouryear-old kindergarteners when we look at
010the projections later, keep in mind that um those those um ratios that are going to be used is that 5-year average. So that 84 will be used to project future four-year-old kindergarteners um going forward. And that will be for all of the models. So let's take a look at both what models are provided and then we'll look at the actual projections. So if we look here um at the four models that are provided, we use again that baseline model taking those 10-year grade progression ratios uh to determine future students and then we use that long-term birth trend which if you remember was steady uh to project future kindergarteners. And then the five-year and the three-year trend, those those two models use the recent birth trends to project future kindergarteners. And if you remember th that
011that trend is increasing over time. So um the the uh kindergarteners will be determined using race recent births trends. And then the 5-year grade progression ratios are used for the 5-year trend model. And then the three-year uh grade progression ratios are used for the three-year trend model. The kindergarten trend is provided um separately from these other three models in that we do not use uh births to determine future kindergarteners, but we use that recent kindergarten trend to project future kindergarteners. And then for the remaining grades, grades 1 through 12, we use the ratios from the five-year trend model um to to project future students. So if we look at the overall trend uh for the um the district as a whole, we are providing you the uh PK to 12 here. um you have full
012tables in your report that give you the the actual numbers. But this graph is showing you how your enrollment is um is increasing over the next 5 years. But if we look longterm, especially when we look at the base model, we are showing some decline in enrollment. But again, that is a very long term and that's projecting future students that aren't even in the schools. So um the next five years again just a slight increase going forward. If we look at the uh grade groupings we can see that the elementary grades um are also increasing slightly in the next 5 years. The kindergarten trend uh dips a little bit but then increases uh going forward. And then the other models that use um birth trends are are fairly similar a steady to slightly increasing enrollment
013um for the trend the birth for the b baseline 5year and threeyear trend. If we look at the middle school uh we see that your current enrollment um is about 1,900 students in middle school. We're seeing um as those smaller cohorts of elementary move to middle school, we are likely to see a decrease over the next couple of years um in middle school. And then finally, if we look at um the high school projections, about 2,700 currently, 2,800 um we see a slight dip next year, but then an increasing um number of of high schoolers going forward um in the next uh uh two to five years. So in summary, um I would like to share that in the next five years, the the three-year trend model projects the greatest increase while the baseline model
014projects um the a little bit of a decrease going forward. If we look at um just in in the next five years um we see actually the uh baseline will be showing an increase in the near term but in the in the longer term it will be a decrease. Um so if we look at um PK to 12 the enrollment is um projected to change anywhere between um less than um as few losing as many as 200 uh students or gaining as many as 160 students. So, we're looking at a percent change of either a minus3 to a plus two depending again on what model you're looking at. If we look at um the elementary classes, um we see that you'll be uh showing a a project a projected increase of anywhere between 4 and
01544 students. Um, and that would mean either a a slight increase of.1% to a 1.3% increase. So, a small increase in your elementary grades. Middle school classes um is projected to decline. As I mentioned, as those smaller cohorts of the elementary grades move, uh, through to the middle school, we see anywhere between 300 and 150 fewer students um, in middle school. in the next 5 years in five 5 years from now anywhere between 15 and 8%. And then finally the high school classes um are projected to change again either losing around 30 students up and gain gaining up to uh 250 students um and that's a a decrease of 1% to an increase of about 9%. So overall, you're probably going to see um some growth in the district in the near term, although some
016of the models do point to slowing to even a slight decrease in your enrollment going forward five years out. So, thank you for uh your attention and have a great day.