001Stephanie Yoder man? Yes. Randy Heitman? Here. Chuck Speer? Here. Tom Moore? Here. Thank you. We will move next to the Pledge of Allegiance. I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the republic for which it stands, one nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all. All right. This is a meeting of the Brainerd School Board and it's being conducted in accordance with Minnesota Statutes 13D.02. This meeting is being recorded. Access to the recording is available on the district's YouTube channel. We will move to the approval of the agenda for this special meeting as presented. So moved. Second. All right. We've got a motion by Director Ward and a second by Director Dandalinger. Any discussion? If not, all those in favor signify by saying I. I. Oppose the
002same? Motion passes. Public input, due to this being a special school board meeting, we'll have the regular meeting after this one where there will be opportunity for public input. There will be no public input allowed during this meeting. We have one item for action um or under new business at least and that is a presentation of the residential survey results presented by Peter Leatherman. Welcome, Peter. Thanks for being with us today. Thank you. It's a pleasure to be here with you. I want to do this cuz I accidentally burned up two. I got like that Oh, you have one too. I think it came. It's right here. help. Oh, well. So, let me try to start from the beginning. There we go. All right, just review with everybody what we undertook for the district. We
003spoke with 500 randomly selected residents across the school district. Uh 500 samples projectable always to plus or minus 4 and 1/2% in 95 out of 100 cases. So, a 500 sample in the district in the state is always going to be plus or minus 4 and 1/2%. Average interview time was 10 minutes. Non-response rate was 6%. Um these interviews were conducted uh back in February and March between the 24th and March 7th. Um there is obviously April 2nd came along at the national level with uh tariff discussion and that kind of tipped everything up and down uh because I think I believe when I was up here talking to you about the survey, one of the big factors going on right now over the last two election cycles for school districts is the economic situation
004of the household. Um so, I'm going to talk about that a little bit in a few moments. Uh cell phone only households were 53% landline only, they still exist, uh 12% of households and then both landline and cell phones were 35%. If we look at demographics and the purpose of the demographics are twofold. First off, we want to look at uh to validate the sample against updated census information and if whether we're in the margin of error of key factors like households with seniors, households with children, homeowners versus renters, those sorts of factors. Uh the second is I can look at differences in the data between how do parents feel uh versus non-parents? What do homeowners feel? Uh so, the first set of bars looks at how long has the person lived in the school
005district? 29% have been in the district for 10 years or less, while 27% have been in the district for over 30 years. The typical resident has lived in the district for about 18 years. 13% are have a preschooler or an infant in their household. 26% have a child attending the Brainerd School District, and then 70% are empty nesters. And now, empty nest does not imply an age. It's lack of presence of a child. So, there could be a 23-year-old in the sample. If they don't have a child, they're classified as an empty nester. So, three out of there one out of four are your primary constituents in the district. 19% are renters. Uh and you can see the self-assessed home value. 33% under 250, 32% over 250, and then 16% over 300,000. If we continue
006with the demographics, the typical resident has some college experience, albeit short of college graduation. So, 42% are college graduates. That includes postgraduate degrees. Well, 24% are high school graduates or less. The financially stressed you were right at the norm, and we continue to see it being the norm right now in Minnesota, uh as we get into May of this year, is 45%. Um we did not get a bump. I was expecting it in the data with all the surveys I've run since April 2nd. Um but everything that's happened, I don't know if it's, you know, looking at the stock market is different than your day-to-day purchases at the grocery store, where you're going to feel the impact of inflation. Uh but we have about uh just under 50% financially stressed. It's come down from where
007we were. The high was back in first half of 2023 when we got to about 60% indicating they're financially stressed. Um so, it's moving in the right direction. It's still, though, almost 20 points higher than where we were pre-pandemic. Really? Um yeah, we're about 26% uh indicating financially stressed. Um, and so how that plays out in school district elections, the higher that number is, you have more people that would support something, they can't afford to support something. It's not a question or a judgment on the schools. They simply don't have the money in their pocket and that's how it's played out. Like last year, only 41% of school districts were successful. Um, you can see the geographic distribution based on registered voter counts. Uh, the city of Brainerd, 27%. 20% in Baxter, 6% in Nisswa,
008and then 47% in the remaining portions of the district. Uh, last set of slides on demographics, uh 20% are 18 to 34-year-olds, while 40% are over the age of 55. Uh, typical resident comes in right at about 50 years old and women outnumber men by 2%. I typically stop at this point and ask any questions on methodology demographics before we get into survey results. Is this a pretty normal breakdown? It I mean, it will vary from community to community. Uh, but in looking at your census data with demographics, um, nothing that strikes me. Actually, the the uh, you know, especially the households with children, typically when you get outside the seven-county metro, um, it kind of reflects the second ring of the metro with about 25% households with children. All right. Survey says. First off,
009we're going to look at atmospherics. Um, and the first question we always start with is how do they rate the quality of education? 87% rated it favorably. Um, that is a comparatively strong rating right now. Um, the rating on the quality of education has dropped across Minnesota. We're now down to about 78% favorable. Um, pre-pandemic, it was about 90%. So, it's been a significant uh drop. It's also been a shift in the enthusiastic rating, the excellent rating. Um, as Minnesotans know, it's difficult to get us excited about anything, to say anything's excellent. Um, and so, what we've seen is it got dropped to about 11% in the excellent rating. Um, so, you're better by about 10 points on the overall and about a 2.5 factor on the on the intense, excellent quality of the schools.
010What do they value? What do they like most about the district? What leads the list is teachers at 21%. If we combine a couple categories, though, a couple other things rise up. If we look at high achievement scores, good academics, that becomes a category of 23%. And then, broad curriculum, variety of programming at 16%. So, your folks are prioritizing who's teaching, the teachers, the quality of the teaching, and then what they're teaching just a little bit lower. But, it's all basically all three are statistical tie. Now, how does this compare? Districts are very idiosyncratic on this. Some districts highly value programming and curriculum. Some, it's all about the high touch, the teachers. Some, it's about academic quality. Um, but you have a statistical tie about what folks are valuing. And it's important, and we'll talk
011about it when we talk about a potential operating levy uh and looking it back to the programs and the curriculum and the educational quality uh that will be able to be um maintained uh with the funding uh potentially from our operating levy. Now, if we ask what they like most, we always follow up. Yes, sir. So, um, I I understand, I'm sure nothing on like most, but what's the scattered category? What what's the All sorts of oddities, uh that don't account to 2%. So, I collapse them down. Um you know, it could be, you know, a the parking lot got fixed. It could be the playground at the elementary school. Um all sorts of things any sort of things that just don't account to more than 2% to break them out. Thank you. Yep. What's
012the most serious issue facing the district? You have the same issue that it leads the list in every district, and that is lack of funding. We've actually seen this go up uh over the last couple months, especially keeping in mind your time frame is end of February, first part of March. Well, the the legislature just started doing their work, which they're not going to finish uh next week. Um and so, it's heightened people's concern on funding. Throw in the discussion from the federal government and the Department of Education. So, you were at the norm of about 20% uh couple months ago. We're now seeing this up to about 26% in a lot of school districts. Um everything else is single digits. Uh lack of discipline, traditionally right around 10%. You're low as a top-of-the-mind on
013high taxes at 7%. We're going to dive in depth into taxes in just a a few slides. Um but that's typically around 15%. And then we have a variety of things in single digits. The other thing I would point to is down at the bottom, the nothings. Those are boosters. It'll be news to you, but they see no problems in the school district whatsoever. Um and they are positive throughout, whether it's from the quality of education to the governance and administration to an operating levy. So, it's about two times the norm of what we call the boosters that a typical school district has. It's starting to come back. There was a point in '23 where the booster core across Minnesota was about 5%. Uh we're now to about 10%. It's growing but it has not
014come back to where we were pre-pandemic. How does the district do on meeting the learning needs of all students, most, only some, or very few? First off, you have a majority saying you're meeting the learning needs of all students, which is a stringent standard. The norm on this right now is about 45%. So that's that's a very good result. And we follow up with those that say most, only some, and very few, that 47% and ask is there a type of student whose learning needs are not is not being met. That's what's the rate in the upper left-hand part of the chart. And you can see it's the theme that we see everywhere in Minnesota. It's the struggling student, the average student, and special education. This is over my 30 years of doing this this
015is ebbed and flowed. In the 90s it was not enough for gifted and talented and that sort of thing but this is where we've ended up. Uh five years post-pandemic with really the concern are those students average to below average and how they're managing to keep up post-pandemic. How do they think the quality is compared to four years ago? I talked about the overall rating on the quality of education. Yours was strong. But there a lot of districts we have that drop into the mid-70s. You still though have a sense that even if there is a concern that things are moving in the right direction in a very strong result. 50% say it's better, only 3% say it's worse. So it's a 17 to one ratio of saying better than worse. The norm on this
016right now is about four or five to one. So there is a sense of positive momentum in the school district. Are they concerned about learning loss since the pandemic? This is a very common theme that comes up. You hear it in a lot of places. And this is really consistent. It doesn't matter if I'm doing a survey in Edina or Brainerd. It's about 50% of residents are concerned, 50% of residents are not concerned. And you're right at that number, 50 to 49. And if you look at it intensely, 9% are very concerned, 15% are not too concerned. A couple more big picture questions. When they think of a high-quality education, what's the most important indicator to them? What leads your list is the broad curriculum serving all. 30%. Followed by the number of college graduates
017going on for further education, and then a tie between the reasonable number in classrooms and standardized test scores. Standardized test scores have come back up. In the '90s, there was an insatiable demand. And then President Bush came along, W, and instituted No Child Left Behind, and 10 years later everybody was exhausted by test scores. What we have seen post-pandemic, though, is a higher reliance on them being an an indicator. It is a touch point, especially for non-parents into schools, what's happening in their school district. So, you know, 8 years ago, that number would have been half of what it is. So, it has come back as an important indicator in a high quality of education. Now, that's what they value. How do they rate the Brainerd School District on each of those indicators? Very highly.
018The number one was broad curriculum serving all, 84 to 15. Going on for further education, 82 to 16. Then on standardized test scores, it was 83% favorable. Even the reasonable number in class of classrooms in in the classrooms because reasonable what's reasonable to you might not be reasonable to me. So it is a value. You still have 79% rating that positively in the Brainerd School District. And then tech it's not an important indicator and people are the the importance of technology has grown right now in Minnesota. I think a lot of people fear that technology is a way to keep kids out of the classroom. But even though it that being the case, they rate the opportunities strongly here. Concerns about curriculum. Obviously the discussions have been going on over the past basically that was
019before the pandemic. 76% indicate no they do not have any concern. It's typically what we see about three-quarters of folks say they do not have a concern about 25% indicate that they do. Which is the same number as have kids in the school. One out of four. Yes, but it's not an over it's actually equally say it was. I just mean it's just kind of convenient that it is the same. It is interesting. The narrative that I've heard and we do it in we test it in our statewide surveys that I share with I call them all the education acronyms. And we break it out it go in depth on curriculum. And I think a lot of school districts think that it's a lot of non-parents concerned about it. It's not the case actually. It's
020pretty evenly divided. It's parents and non-parents feeling strongly about it. But it's still about one in four that voice concerns. Okay. Yeah. Overall assessment of job performance ratings on the school board 7425. Normal on this right now is about 58 to 40. Uh the superintendent and administration, 68 to 29. On this one I was looking at ratio. Uh two to one is the norm. Uh two year two and a half to one. Um and you can see that the the ratings of governance and administration basically line up. Uh which tells me a pretty well-functioning school district. I can always tell that there's issues if the board's here and the administration's down here or vice versa. This is kind of like a hand in glove. The community sees you all as one entity. Um and then
021the closer you get to the kids, typically more positive. Uh your teachers are very well regarded. Uh teachers have taken a hit over the course of the pandemic on their ratings. The norm has dropped down to about 80%. Yours were rated favorably favorably by 87%. Overall assessment then of financial management, 62% favorable. Norm on this right now is about 52 or 53%. So on all of these financial uh questions, uh very strong ratings. Uh when we uh the you have financial stewardship and credibility in the minds of residents. Property ta- Did I skip a chart? I did. I was going to say, "Okay, why my thumb moved too fast?" Let's go back to this one. This is really especially the bottom question is very important. First off, does the district spend taxpayers' money effectively and
022efficiently? 71% agree with that statement. Norm on that right now is about 60%. Do they see a good value for their investment in the Brainerd schools? Absolutely. Almost 90%. Have you spent past referendum funds responsibly? 74%. Do you ask for a tax increase only as a last resort? 65% agree with that. Does the district do a good job of involving the community uh in decisions? The empowerment question. 74% agree with that, about five points higher than the norm. And then the bottom question is the schools are a good investment and I would support a property tax increase to protect that investment. The key on this question is the no. Uh because as the question is phrased, it doesn't talk about an operating levy or a bond referendum. It doesn't talk about a dollar amount. It
023fleshes out the core no. They're against anything in the school district. We want that number to be under 33% at the outset. And you can see and that doesn't mean that everything automatically passes. It's just the lower the number that the lower the that number is, uh the more willingness there is for a discussion for additional funding. So, we did that. Property taxes. Um after economic in- the economic situation of the household, the next biggest issue facing school districts is property tax hostility across the state. It has increased greatly over the past 3 years. You are one of the few districts though that is actually under 50% in the very high and somewhat high category. That's the threshold I use to classify a district as property tax hostile. We're out now up to a norm
024uh in 2025 of about 62% in the high category. Um it it's just the last two assessments of value of homes and then opening of property tax statements on November 15th has caused this to go up. But interestingly, it follows the same pattern everywhere. If you look at their perception of school taxes, it drops from 49 to 40. Which tells us that if they are upset about property taxes, their concern is not focused at the school district. It's focused at the city or the county. I always say back when I started doing this, we used to ask who do you blame? And then cities and counties got upset with us. So, we don't ask it that way anymore. We ask it this way so we can kind of come in the back door on on
025this. Um that's the good news is it's not focused here. But, as you know, um you're really the only show in town that has to go to voters for an approval. Cities and counties um can raise the the levy without a a vote of the citizens. So, it's kind of a you know two a double-edged sword on this. Um but the the real good news here is though you don't have the level of hostility elsewhere. The highest level I have in 2025 is a school district that's at 77% in the very high and somewhat high category. That's a very I mean you just have a reflexive no, I don't want to have a discussion about this. My taxes are already too high. Is the district adequately funded? Nobody in Minnesota knows on this. I mean
026this is almost like a constant of pie. 47% say yes, 49% say no, and 4% are honest and say I have no idea. Um this is abs and flows. The high we had is after Governor Walz did the victory lap in 2021 and talked about the largest increase of funding in the history of Minnesota, we got up to 75% saying their local school district's adequately funded. Well, the governor said so. Um now people don't understand because they hear they're getting money from the state, but then they see districts making cuts all over uh the the state of Minnesota. So, they really don't know where their sensibilities lie on this. If they heard the district was going to ask for a property tax increase? Are they against all, for all, or are they persuadable? You start
027out at a dead tie. Core support to core yes, 28% each. You also start out, just like where this is the current state that we live in, uh with over half the people have made up their minds with no information. Because we haven't told them what the funding's for. But 28% are against everything and 28% are for everything. Um you know, this is how you know, in the '90s, we used to have 80% persuadable. And they would say, "I don't know. What's the money going to be used for?" Um now 44% are persuadable. That's obviously going to be the key swing in any sort of uh potential funding request from the district. On our let's make a deal question, first off, 30% said nothing. We want that under 35%. So, you were there. 20% say
028$6 a month, 22% say 12, and 22% say 18 or more. So, the typical resident comes in at the outset at roughly 150 bucks a year at the outset. Now, that number can go up or down depending on what's being asked for. And so, what we told folks, and we tested a $5.5 million operating levy, and we told them that if the funds were approved, they would be used to maintain class sizes, programs, and avoid future budget cuts. So, nothing's being added. It's basically a maintenance operating levy. They were told on a median value $340,000 home, the monthly property tax increase would be $18 per month or $218 per year. So, it's about 50% higher than the tolerance. But because it's they value what is being asked for, 59% support, 35% oppose. Um there's not
029a lot of intensity. 24% feel strongly one way or the other, and they split evenly between strong support and strong opposition. Now, I'm going to finish the presentation. I'll come back and have a discussion about what overall what this telling us in an operating levy. What's the reason for their position on the levy? Well, education's important. The cost is reasonable. 8% save children in the district, and 7% say it's needed. Now, over the course of a campaign, uh where you have a vote yes and probably a vote no, um you know, this will ebb and flow. But, what needs to be at the top is the need reason for support. That's what drives people to the polls, especially in an off-year election. There's something at stake here. Uh when you talk about, you know, districts
030sharing logical consequences. If this fails, these things are going to happen. What are the reasons for opposition? No children, poor district spending. Every district has between 8 and 12% that will oppose anything uh because of poor district spending. And like, the Bloomington still has people opposing that because they closed uh Lincoln High School in the '70s. Um and so, those decisions can linger. Um And then you get down, 8% say my taxes are too high. 5% say the cost is too high, need more information. Only 2% say it's not needed. Um so, really, you know, the opposition is not solely focused on taxes and cost, um where we see in many other school districts. Part of it is mitigated because you don't have the level of property tax hostility that other districts do. And finally,
031where are folks getting their information? 28% say mailings or newsletter, 21% the website. Uh word of mouth is not what I would expect it to be. Um and I think part of it is I'm assuming that's the local newspaper. Uh you still have a local newspaper uh at 10%. Um what we've seen in a lot of school districts is um you know, like in the Southwest Metro, the Chanhassen Villager, the Chaska Herald, the Prior Lake American all are gone. They no longer cover the school district. And what we've seen is a real explosion in the grapevine because the key the key members of the grapevine are typically young parents surrounding, you know, ECFE programs, youth sports associations, those sorts of things. Uh but with the newspapers disappearing, um it's the over 55-year-olds that would typically
032read the newspaper, they're not going to go to the website um to get information. They're not going to go to social media. And so we've seen this growth of the grapevine. But you do not have it here. Um and then email, district staff, social media down the list. That's how they get it. How do they prefer to receive it? First off, it matches up pretty well with how they're getting it. Uh but if you just look at this print versus electronic, do they want to hold something in their hand? 37% say a mailed newsletter, 10% say the local newspaper. So you have almost a majority saying print. On the flip side, 20% say the website, 10% email, 5% social media, 5% e-newsletter. So you have about 40% preferring electronic. So you have very dependent and
033their demographics, it's households with children are highly highly reliant on electronic especially since uh the pandemic. They they came to live and die with the daily email about whether school is in session. And now it's just become that is the routine, their preference of getting information. But both of those sources, either the push or pull communications, needs to be done well. So, the atmospherics in the district look really good. There's nothing that I would classify as a red flag. And by a red flag, it means something that people will walk into the voting booth and make a symbolic no vote, okay? The property tax hostility is not at levels that we see elsewhere. Um you have a willingness for this discussion, okay? If but people will need to understand what's at stake. What are those
034logical consequences if this fails? And so, I would suggest though you are at 59% on the operating levy. Now, this may be really, really minuscule, but it's it is a difference to me. It's a distinction that makes a difference. If you look historically, um as I mentioned earlier, this is a pristine environment. There's been no vote yes, there's been no vote no. This is typically as good as it gets. If I have 10 clients run a campaign, two will run an outstanding vote yes. They will have a an outstanding group of volunteers that does the vote yes. They will be able to maintain that number in early survey for planning purposes. The other eight, the typical regression is eight points, which makes it a coin flip then. And so, I always use 60% as a
035threshold at this point in time. Um and so, it would suggest this has a good chance of success, but if it was scaled back a bit to get closer to that $150 a month, that would be helpful, I think, on the edges with the persuadable. Um and because also, you know, the problem is surveys are snapshots in time. Superintendent asked me long ago, when's the best time to do a survey? And I said the Monday before the Tuesday. Um but for planning purposes, that's not possible. You have two factors completely out of your control. What's the economy going to be? What's the stock market going to be? Um and then also, what are your cities and counties going to do when they announce their preliminary tax uh assessment in September? Um that will impact It
036impacted last year. Um the city of Rochester announced almost a 10% tax levy increase at the same time the school district had the operating levy on the ballot that if it failed, they were going to close schools. And so, the school district had to basically spar with the city and say, do not hold us responsible because they can do this. Um if you want to hold them responsible, vote them out when they run for council again. Um but where we have to go and it worked. Um and so, those two factors in play um that are completely out of your control, I think, are something to be added into the mix into the decision-making process. So, I'd be happy to answer any questions you have. You had said $150 a month. I think you meant
037150 a year. Oh goodness gracious, did I say 150 a month? I meant 150 a year. I heard you say $218 a year. Did you say $218 a year? That was what we tested. Yeah. That was So, which one of that of is $218 a year? No, the 218 That 18 bucks a month? Uh it would be roughly Yeah, 240 about 19 bucks a month. Is what we tested. So, all everybody So, I don't understand how you come up with your numbers because everybody on this side is below that. going to go here. It's all the pluses. Right. So, I It's nothing, the six, the 12, the 18. I take out the nothing. Okay. Because the they're not going to support anything. What I'm looking for is what's the tolerance of those willing to see
038their taxes increased. I'll say you're saying 57%. Correct. Got you. Yep. Yeah, I think you had mentioned earlier that 150 per year was kind of a sweet spot. Yeah, it it it it's Typically it it's a little bit on the higher side. Right right now the typical tolerance is about $10 a month. Um so, you're a little bit higher than that at the outset, but it is it's it's completely flexible. I mean, I've tested um in some districts you know, two to three times the tax tolerance. Um but because things are highly supported, it will raise it up. Um if you put on though like on a bond referendum, if you test an indoor activity center or a hockey arena, uh people would support 50 cents. So, it really is it really matters what's included.
039Uh can elevate people's support, potential tolerance on the property tax increase, or it can definitely diminish it. Peter, do you think for going back to the Rochester scenario if Mayo Clinic hadn't given them 10 million? Yep. Would they gotten a no vote, do you think, or would that that just helped support those who are on the bubble. Um it definitely helped. Especially though the but the Mayo the message from Mayo was this is a one-time gift. We're we're not going to subsidize it to the two to ten million dollars uh every year in order to keep the schools open. It it what I mean what it showed was and we didn't work with them on that on the first one that failed. They did not First off they did a tech levy. And the rationale
040for a tech levy yes it it it makes sense because it frees up funds in the operations when it's dedicated. But that's a step. I mean Did it pass? The first one failed the tech levy the tech levy. Because you really couldn't tie the consequences to it. You can't say if I don't get a tech levy I'm going to close the school. Uh residents go th- th- this doesn't make sense. If you go straight operating you can say um and that's and that's where the message got mixed in the Mayo donation um put those logical consequences on the table um and made the community aware truly what was at stake. People have to understand um that there's something at stake or else they're not going to raise their property taxes. Um especially in this environment.
041And you know districts I I always say you you need to be some school boards um get nervous and they say we're threatening the community. It's not a threat it's a logical consequence. There has to be something that happens if the funding doesn't happen. Whether it's you can't provide the service or now we're not into the point of enhancements we're into the point of maintenance. Um but you have to do so in a way um first off, you have to be willing to do it. You can't do what Robbinsdale did about 15 years ago where they went out to the community and said, "If we don't get this, we're going to do these things." And then it failed and they didn't do those things. So then that's a threat. You didn't follow through. Um and
042they didn't pass anything for I think 5 or 6 years because it eroded trust. You also can't go to the level and the example is Osseo School District 25 years ago. They came out and said, and we didn't work with them on this one cuz I had to stop this. Um if this fails, and now Osseo, half of it's Brooklyn Park, half is Maple Grove. If this fails, we're going to close a school in Brooklyn Park. Well, all the parents in Maple Grove skipped to the polls because they knew they could vote no, their taxes wouldn't go up, and their kids weren't going to be impacted because the school was going to be closed in the other community. The discussion is things on the table. We will have to look at closing a school or
043what whatever those things are. It's it's when you get some sometimes districts like one district, we're going to eliminate fifth grade music. Okay, I'm a junior high parent or a high school parent. Why do I care fifth grade music? It it is there you this level of specificity. But you have to just make it broad. Class sizes would be impacted. Electives would be diminished. Um you know, one district I was at last week, if it fails, they're going to eliminate one period at the middle and high school. Um and look at the the general result, you know, they'll evaluate what's which electives that will be, but that's what you're talking about is the substantial schedule change uh and the opportunities offered to to, uh, students. So, what about the This is really good information. Appreciate
044it. Um, what about the mode of the election or the, um, type of election? You know, what What makes a successful election? In other words, you know, phone calling, um, door knocking, mailers, um, you know, do you have any feeling on that? Do you have any feeling that you know, here's what here's what successful elections uh, contain or the activities? A successful elections contain strong communications that share logical consequences and focus on your most likely supporter is your least likely voter in an off year and that's parents. Parents have underrepresented since 2013. I I mean, I literally can draw a line in our data where it happened. Before then, if you have you have roughly 25% parents. So, in a special election, parents would overrepresent by 10%. They'd be 35% of the electorate. Since 2013,
045parents are lucky to represent their actual numbers. Um, one district, uh, that called after they failed last year, um, and they went into their database and they ran those who voted versus their parent list. Uh, parents underrepresented by a third. Um, and I've done surveys, uh, for districts. We call them autopsies, uh, where we go in after the fact and find out why the patient died. And we talk with parents who didn't vote. And you ask them, why didn't you vote? I was too busy. I forgot. Um, the kids had sports that night. Um they don't prioritize. It's I don't understand it. I really don't. And so um a lot of the vote yes efforts um that uh the volunteers have undertaken have focused on parents and a lot of digital. Um and a focus
046on early voting. Take away the excuse of I was running late for basketball. Um so I went to drop the kid off instead of going to vote. Um those sorts of strategies uh focused on parents, absolutely. Peter, you talked about the factors that you tested with this group when you were talking about what you know, voting yes meant or you know, what that money would be used for. Could you just remind me kind of generically what those were? Oh, what the what the funds would be used for? Yeah, it was it was maintenance. I can read it specifically for you. If additional funds were approved, they would be used to maintain class sizes and programs and avoid future budget cuts. Thank you. I I think it's also um important we did we because your years
047are kind of future discussions on cuts coming up. Um I've tested in at least half a dozen school districts now just over the past few weeks that have already done cuts and asked residents, are you aware of the cuts being made that have been made? There's not a majority in any school district of residents saying, yeah, they're already aware of those cuts. Um and interesting you follow up those those are aware of the cuts, do they think it's had a negative impact on the education? Less than half say it's had an impact. Um and so I think a discussion, you know, about the future, about the past, on the budget, and you have to because there who knows what's going to happen in St. Paul and Washington, D.C. Realistically, they're not going to do four
048and four or two and two or whatever they've done the last few years. Um people need to understand the funding that comes from the state and what it means for this school district. Not the billion or or whatever the number is. What does it mean for their local school district? Um and put it in a and then especially put it up against cost of living and inflation because there'll be a gap. You're not going to get that increase in school district funding even to maintain uh with cost of living indicators. You mean with what they're going to do this year? Yeah. Well, even with the historic funding they get. it's a little fuzzy math there, Peter. You better stay out of that for a minute. Yeah. Pull it up for you if you'd like to
049see. It's a little We're we're we're we're all pace of inflation. It Bringing our school district for the last 30 years. across the state, yeah. And this school district? In this school district, yeah. And probably all the rest. We're not quite as bad as the rest of the state. Yeah. You know, you said parents were critical. Obviously as a group, I'm sure there's staff, so is, you know, whomever. I mean, there's different groups. And since parents are so critical, when I look at the demographics and then, empty nesters are at 70 Is it 70% right? Yes. So, that's a little concerning to me since we have parents as a main group for success, but we have 70% empty nesters. How do you How do you address that? Well, parents a successful election coalition 80% of
050parents will support. So, they because they come in at such a high level. What's hurt school districts over the last 2 years is the the group that has been impacted most by inflation, cost of living, and property taxes are younger families. So, that's why school districts have had such a hard time because they can't get to the 80% threshold because more parents are in that category of I would support something, I can't afford it. It's not a question of do I have the $100 to give you, they don't have the $100. And that's why it's become difficult to overcome um you know, to get to that 80% threshold when you're only 1/4 of the population. Peter, do you have any data about empty nesters who had children in school and no longer do as far
051as do they still support schools or not? They are more supportive than uh an over 55-year-old person with no connection to the school district. They still you have what's called the grandparent effect. Um if they have um grandchildren in the district, if you're over 65, the the difficult group is the one I'm headed into, the 55-to-64-year-olds. Um they're worried about retirement. Their kids just left, they're exhausted. Um, that's the most difficult group. Uh, but you do after 65, they get into retirement, they've got grandkids, they'll they'll split at a 45-50% level in support, where my new demographic coming up is about a 30-70 opposition. Really? Yeah. And that's been consistent over 30 years. Really? Yeah. Those are getting to the starting to worry about it. Yep. They're they're worried about it and they're exhausted. The
052kids are gone and all all all those factors come into play. Any additional questions for Peter? What would you do if you were sitting in my chair? I've never been asked that. I would I would vote to authorize an operating levy um, at a little bit lower amount as long as it could you would be able to provide the financial stability um, to maintain programs and class sizes. Thank you. Will you chair yes committee here? So, it's a long commute even though I love the golf courses up here. If I came up, I just want to golf. They can take your golf, too. I'll get you on any golf course you want next week. I'll be 45 and raining. Yeah. Yeah. Yes. Yes. Uh, I I have one last question and I know your company
053does thousands of these, and you have a plethora of data and information. Just maybe over the last 2 years or so, is there one critical factor that can swing no or yes that you have come across and just go, "This is something that is new, but it's critical." Um it's it's not new. It has come back. And that is if we go back to 2008, 2009, the start of the recession. And over the last 2 years now, the greatest determinant on success, because it can overcome economic insecurity, property tax hostility, is the clear delineation in the minds of residents of want versus need. And and prioritizing it that way as you look at it. Um And and that's not to say that you know, but you don't have a conversation in the current climate just
054like you didn't back then about improvements or enhancements. Um I just presented at a suburban city last week. Property tax hostility really high, and we just asked two simple questions. Would you support a property tax to increase to maintain services? 75% said yes. Everything they know it costs more to maintain what you have. Would you support a property tax tax increase to improve or enhance services? 21% said yes. It's just in inverse. And so, I think the districts that do the best job of prioritization on needs, focused at what residents value, and you know from yours, it's the academic quality, it's the programming and curriculum, it's the staff. Um that's that's the where folks are prioritizing it. Um it's just more of a spotlight on that needs versus wants discussion. I know Peter said that
055would be the last question. Yeah. But I have one more. Um you know, looking through this, it looks very positive to us, but you probably seen so many of these. What I mean, you can't guarantee success if we go to the polls. But what would you say other schools that have worked with you and have seen this that have gone to the polls, what kind of success have they seen? Uh traditionally, it's over 90%. Um if they follow advice, um shall we say. Uh last year was more difficult, but still we're 41% passed across the state of Minnesota. Districts that worked with us were at 81%. So, it it part of it is they they knew the prioritization of the needs and the wants. Uh where a lot of districts um so, I mean, it
056helps focus. It helps give you a clear picture of where people are at and what their tolerance is, um instead of just guessing. So, when you when you say 90%, that's using this these data points. Yes. Okay. Well, how come you said that normally people drop back 8% and that would regress to 51%, which you said would be a coin flip. That would be the that would be the typical regression from an early But you said it's down to a coin flip, and now you're saying it's 90%, which is it? No, no, no, no. Not a quite No, you two two two things. First, the survey results versus the actual election results. So, the typical if they start at 60% and the typical regresses to 52%, it's still a win. It it it it sets
057but so to maintain that number or go above it is very unusual over the course of a campaign because there has been no discussion whatsoever right now. You don't have yard signs. You don't have door knocking. You don't have any of those digital ads and that just heightens everybody's um focus on the school district. It also um you know keep in mind in an off year election the day before election day 30% of people have no idea there's an election. Um it's just amazing. Um Yeah. It's the way it is. Yeah. It's the way it is a big election so far. Oh you could get Never asked the question where you were where you're voting on the presidential election. I wish people would you know the last few years people said oh I wish they
058just want the ads to go away by August so but no I It it's it it it's typically you have that regression but that's why in districts if they plan properly you can overcome um that regression. 51% you think we can hold that? Yeah. All things being equal. If the stock market's at 10,000 nothing will last. You you you said to Sarah that um if you follow if they follow advice they've been successful. So do you continue on with you know with us through this process or whose advice? I I I always say I'm here from takeoff to landing and I don't charge by the hour. Okay. So I'll have superintendents call me you know however often they want when questions come up. It's too much work to charge by the hour so I don't
059bother. Yeah. Hm. Okay. Yeah. I have my own way. left. Yes. We've got 5 minutes till our next meeting, so any final questions for Peter? If not, we are planning to discuss this Wednesday morning at our retreat a little bit as a group. Um and we can talk more then. Thank you, Peter. Appreciate your time. Super. Thanks, Peter. Thank you, Peter. You did great work. Thank you. All right. Um we'll entertain a motion to adjourn this meeting. So moved. Second. Got a motion by Director Heineman and a second by Director Dondalinger. Do we have to approve the Oh. Approve the Yeah. Yeah, you should. Yeah, we should do that. Okay. Thank you, Kelly. Now, let's do that. Yeah, sorry about that. My fault. Um we do have one action item, so we should approve the
060results. So, I'll make a motion we approve the 2025 residential survey result as presented. Is there a second? Thank you, Stephanie. So, we've got a motion by Director Brekken and a second by Director Edelman to approve the residential survey results as presented. Any discussion? All those in favor, please say aye. Aye. Opposed the same? Great. And then we'll go back to our motion to adjourn. Motion by Director Heineman, second by Director Dondalinger. Any discussion? All those in favor? Aye. Opposed the same? Motion