001Jenkins, your fellow board members. Thank you'all so much for having me. It's a pleasure to be here. I don't know if I mentioned this last uh time I was here, but um I come from a long family of public educators. My sister is a um EC program coordinator, Edgecom County high schools. My wife is a teacher in Wake County Public Schools. My dad was a teacher and a AP and a retired principal. So, thank you for your service. Um it's again, it's a pleasure to be here today. I'm going to talk to you since I was here last. as you know that we are now we're really happy to be working with y'all more closely and a more formal um a more formal way to do your student population forecasting and that's what I'm going
002to present to you today some preliminary results preliminary is the key word um but before I do for new folks I know that we have some uh at least one new board member um I'm going to uh tell you a little bit just about who we are um so Carolina Demography is the applied demography unit of the Carolina Population Center which is just down the road Um, we are a nonpartisan team of population scientists working for the people of North Carolina. Our mission is really to help people understand a changing North Carolina so that they can make informed decisions. Um, people exactly like yourselves. Um, we do we do that in three primary ways. We help groups find and collect data. So, we work with you to determine uh the questions that you want to
003ask, the data that you need, where and how to get that data. um you know that we're we live in a world where we're swimming in data, but it can sometimes be inaccessible if you don't have the special training and experience to access it. Um so that's one of the key things that we do. One free service that we provide for everybody are free data consultations. So if you or your um your team members are working on a proposal on XY or Z and you need data about your community, please reach out to us and we do free data consultations. Um we also um nine times out of 10 we just send you the data that you need. Um other times it's more in depth and so we also help clean, analyze and interpret data.
004We use rigorous methods to translate data and provide meaningful context. And then finally and perhaps most importantly we help communicate data and engage stakeholders. We kind of specialize in high level infographics where decision makers can walk away and understand what the data is telling us and equally important what it's not telling us. Um as you know uh we are with for the student population forecasting we partner with our longtime partners demographic analytics advisors. Uh you saw my colleague Chris Dick who's the president and CEO of Demographic Analytics Advisor's name on the on the title slide. He couldn't be here today, but I do want to uh to just tell y'all about who they are and what we've partnered with them on all of our student population forecasting projects. Um they have decades of experience. This
005is you see his beautiful uh face here. Um they have decades of experience doing this doing this type of population forecasting and we work with them with Wake County Public Schools with all of DPI with several school districts across the state. Lots of experience years and years of experience doing this type of work and they know the ins and outs and the intricacies of ADM changes in North Carolina as well as anybody. Um so what do we know going into this project? So, I'm going to briefly recap some of the things that I presented at the board meeting last October. Um, Chapville car Chapel Hill Carver City Schools ADM has steadily declined since the 201920 school year. As we know, that's where we were then. Uh, one year later and the one year later, we
006dropped 540 students to 11764. The next year we dropped another 353 students. The next year that that that that um decline abated but picked back up the following year. Following year still about 145 students we lost between 23 2425 and then between 2425 to 2526 we lost another 332 students and as this is based on principles monthly report two I will say this says 10759 it's really 10758 that's a rounding issue so since the pandemic the school district has lost 1545 students So, where have we seen the biggest declines? So, for these next slides, I'm just going to show you a couple years out from the pandemic. That was where we saw those that that that huge drop. Um, and this is no, this should be no secret. I presented this last year. The largest
007ADM losses since the pandemic were in our lower elementary grades with the biggest losses in kindergarten. You can see between the 201920 to the uh 2023 24 school year, you lost uh 240 kindergarteners about 28% decline in kindergarten. Um high school and this is uh an interesting um phenomenon. Um high school saw modest gains during this period and I'm going to talk about what what what that means moving forward. So how do we impro approach an enrollment forecast? It's really important to understand how we do this. So I want to talk to you briefly about what a forecast is and equally important what it's not. Um so what it is, it's a scientific most likely scenario based on our data inputs. Okay? And I'm going to talk about what those are. And it can be
008an extremely useful planning tool if used correctly and questioned. You should I encourage you to be critical consumers of the forecast. What it is not it is not a magic ball. It's not a magic solution that can I can tell you with complete accuracy what your enrollment is going to be in 10 years. Right? And it's nor is it a random and wild guess at what enrollment will be in 10 years. Okay. Um so it's important that we're all up we're all on the same page about what the forecast is and what it's not. So what are what are our key considerations? What are our inputs? The most important thing we look at historical enrollment patterns and again this is based on PMR2. I know that funding and rears is based on best one of
009two. Our forecast is based on PMR2 and we need that consistency and nine times out of 10 PMR2 is going to be higher than PMR1. Um so historical enrollment patterns. We also look at school capacity and attendance zones. We also look at demographic processes that are completely out out of the control of the school district. Births number one, migration in and out. We also look at age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin trends. Um, but we're not going to present any of that material today. Um, finally, we also look at the built environment. We look at we look at building permits um approved and proposed developments, how many units, and then we uh estimate uh out how many school age children we anticipate being in those units. And um what another thing that we do, we
010don't just take the u approved and proposed development data at face value. We actually go ground truth it and go see okay, how far along is this development? Is it built out? When do we expect occupancy? And so we we will we'll build that into the model. Um we also take up some socioeconomic um factors and co of course um special considerations the impact of the opportunity scholarship expansion program in North Carolina opportunity scholarship program expansion um private school vouchers right we take that into account we take uh into account charter school proliferation and I should mention here I should add this to the slide homeschool right um and so that what I collectively refer to this as educational market share. Okay, so that we take those into account as well. So the methodology and
011assumptions. Um so key considerations for our forecast, what we've done here, uh the what's in bold is what we've done. What's in italics is what we need to do until we to finish the work. Um so we begin with what we call a weighted grade progression methodology. And so we look by school and feeder school patterns at the ratio of students that were in the grade prior grade last year versus the current grade this year. A ratio larger than one implies that there's movement in movement into the district either from geographically outside the district or from non-public options, right? Um lower than one means attrition or out movement out migration. So, we forecast this ratio into the future. And so, we've tested several different waiting regimes and we finalized with a 10-year weighted average. And
012we waited with the waiting of those grade progression r ratios skewed slightly towards the more recent data, if that makes sense. Um, what we still need to do before we we finalize our forecast, adjust for changes in market share. We haven't built that fully into this model yet. We're still waiting on some data. add in our housing that I was talking about, housing based growth by attendant zone, and we'll compare differences based on grade progression ratios versus housing growth. And then finally, we'll add in additional students based on that housing growth. Okay? So again, a forecast is only as good as the assumptions that go into it. And so I want to be very clear about the assumptions that we've made with this forecast. Um we anticipate we have assumed that births uh to residents
013of Chapel Hill Car Chapel Hill and Carborough will continue to decline but that that growth will slow. Okay. We've also we have looked at current market we're we're assuming right now that current market share patterns will continue with increased incre with a continued increases in non-public options but at a slowing rate. Um, we've also assumed that students will continue their current patterns of returning to public school, especially in high school in the high school years either from out of district or from non-public options. And that's what we've seen. We've seen high school we've seen those modest gains in high school. And what we assumed is that people may be choosing charter homes or privates in those earlier grades but coming back to or for the first time to Chapel Hill Carbur Chapel Hill Carbur City
014Schools in high school. Um, we also assume that changes in immigration will not impact enrollment any more than they have this year. Um, that what does that mean? Okay. Um, again, I just want to reiterate this is an initial model. It's a preliminary model. We're going to be updating the forecast with development impacts and a few other things and we'll provide that in the full report to the county in in the spring. Um, also um utilization is based on the district provided capacity figures that y'all provided to us. Here's one note. Uh, currently Phoenix Academy we've held constant in this forecast. Um, and that was just for some method methodological reasons for these preliminary results, but it doesn't really impact your overall ADM that much. >> Yes, ma'am. >> Did you consider how federal immigration
015policies might change immigration locally? >> That is a very good question. Um, as of yet, no, we have not. Um I will say so um do uh Ronnie Dossi um what what what she's referring to here is that there have been changes in of course federal immigration policy. We have observed declines in the foreignb born population sharp declines for the first time in 50 years. Um we as of yet don't quite know how that's going to impact North Carolina. And so we're still we're still working that out. But that's a great question. Thank you for asking that. um what we know now and how we got there. All right. Okay, let's start with enrollment. Okay, so this is total district enrollment. What you see here in the in the in the solid line is what
016we have observed going back to the 2015 2016 school year up to this year's 2526 PMR2 right um what you see in the dotted line here is what we are forecasting. So we are forecasting that we will drop to 10,99 total uh average daily membership by 2030 and that we will drop to 9,448 by 2035. That's is overall district enrollment. ADM losses across all grades we project but we also uh predict that the biggest losses will be in kindergarten and among elementary grades the biggest losses will be in kindergarten. Um with out to 20 from 2019 out to 2035 which is in your far right we project that there will be a loss of 252 total students from the start of the pandemic to 2035 a drop of about 30% kindergartens. Um if you'll note
017six, seventh and eighth is also going to going to experience some sharp declines. the middle school. We're anticipating middle school to see some sharp declines as those cohorts go through the system. So, this is district elementary enrollment. Again, the solid line is observed. The dotted line is forecasted. Um, you're at 4,293 a.m. right now in elementary schools. uh we we forecast you to be at 4,66 by 2030 and 3,968 by 2035. This is elementary enrollment by year and change by by school. Uh looking at from 2019 20 to now and then also 2019 to 20 out to 2035 36. what you and this is colored by the the the percent change. This kind of oranges right here is are declines of 10% or greater. Um this lighter orange here is uh declines of 2.5% to
0189.99%. Um and when we get into the gray we start increasing. So you can see we've got just I'm not going to read up this to you because you can see it and you're also going to get a copy of this. Um, North Side, Rashus, Scrogs, Seawwell, we all are forecasting to drop to to decrease by more than 10%. And I should say also Carbor Elementary. This is middle school enrollment. Currently, you're at 2581. I apologize for the small numbers there. I'm I need glasses myself. Um, 2581 now. um 2311 middle school enrollment by 2030 and dropping to 2,185 middle school enrollment by 2035. Every single middle school is going to be declining in enrollment. Um that's what we're that's what we're forecasting here with McDougall and Phillips to seeing the largest decreases and actually
019out to 2035 all of them are going to be declining by 10% or greater. high school. High school is a different beast. Okay. Um we we are forecasting some declines. Uh currently you're at 3,00 sorry 3,885. Um I gota we got to work on that. Uh is what we're forecasting out to 2030. And we're forecasting you to be at 3,295 high school enrollment by 2035. You could see here and I mentioned to you before whereas elementary school saw start uh sharp declines uh following the pandemic, high school actually saw modest gains. And again what this is is people returning back or coming for the first time or returning um after going to either a charter, a home or a private and then coming back to high school. So, it's both people coming from non-public options
020and also potentially people moving into the district. That's an empirical question that we can answer by following students over time. Um, but so we we are projecting you to to to still continue to decline out to 3,295 high school students by 2035. Um, all out to 2035, we anticipate all high school students are all high schools are going to decline by more than 10%. Again, just just to reiterate, we've held Phoenix Academy high for for our purposes now or we've held it constant for our purposes now. So, what you're seeing here, so I told you we saw the biggest decreases in kindergarten during COVID, right? That was where we saw the biggest declines districtwide. This yellow is that cohort aging through the system, right? So, the decline is driven by a couple of factors. drops
021in births and this is not birth rate necessarily. This is total number of births. Um drops in births mean lower level of students entering kindergarten even if birth to kindergarten ratios aren't necessarily declining. And what a birth to kindergarten ratio is is we look at how many people were born in X year and then we look at how many students showed up in kindergarten 5 years later. Right? A kindergarten ratio under below one suggests that there's been out migration. Above one suggests that there's been some inmigration. Um so births are births matter. Um enrollment drops. What what else is is driving this decline? Enrollment drops around the CO 19 pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 and 2122 were most significant again in the elementary school ages. these cohorts are now aging through the whole system
022and that's creating additional losses in those other grades. Um, one of the unknowns, this is what we three is something that we don't know yet and this is something that we're going to be considering. Will students come back to high school at an even greater rate starting next year? Right? We don't know that. We can't know that. So, we're going to be monitoring that and and update as as as necessary. or will historical ratios hold and increase losses at high school ages? We don't know the answer to that. So utilization, this is your capacity and enrollment table for elementary. Um well, I'm not going to go through this in its entirety, but you can see um so your capacity is in the far left. Um and then we see enrollment in 25, enrollment 2030, and
023enrollment in 2035, right? Um, you can see capacity at Carbor Elementary Elementary is estimated at 518 students. By 2035, we anticipate you being at 386. Um, another example is um, but it's not all. Uh, Glenwood Elementary is actually we anticipate being right right at capacity by 2035 if you'll note. Um but Sewell for example, Sewell inter elementary of capacity of 450 we anticipate being 319 by 2035. So this is a capacity enrollment utilization table for your elementary. Again, this is kind of the same information that I just walked through. We can see uh by 2030 we actually anticipate Glennwood Elementary being slightly over capacity um and many of the other schools uh being at 75 to 100% of their capacity. And we'll walk through this with district administration in greater detail as we as we
024find after we finalize the data. This is middle school. Same thing. Um we anticipate middle schools being well under capacity. Um most of them being 75 to 100 uh between 75 and to 100% and then um with uh Colbreth am I pronouncing that correct? the Culbr being at 60 to 75% 2020 20 it already is there um and uh by 2030 and by 2035 high school same thing the Carbor High currently uh according to the capacity numbers that we have is slightly over capacity um but we anticipate it being dropping to 96 uh 96% capacity by 2030 84% capacity by Uh, East Chapel Hill High we anticipate being at 78% capacity by 2035. And Phoenix Academy, again, that's kind of a an outlier there. >> How do those numbers square with the fact that a
025few slides back, question number three in italics was we don't know about the high school? >> Oh, we're just making the assumption right now. We're holding it constant right now. We're we're it is an unknown. So, we just want to we I want to be clear about >> this is like worst case scenario. This is if they don't if they don't come back. >> This is what we're we're we're right now what we're doing is assuming historical trends. So yes, I I I I'm not comfortable saying worst case, but it's what we're it's what we're it's what we're assuming the historical trends, but it is it is like it is possible that more kids could come back and that's what we don't know. And I that's why I'm say it's impossible for us to know
026that. But what we do when we normally get in a cadence with a district is we update this on an annual basis based on updated data. And that's what we really recommend. Um, so what's happening? I've already walked through this demographic components of this population change. There's changes in fertility and you got migration. You got people moving out. You got people moving in. And then number two, shifts in educational market share. In other words, loss of student population to charter schools, private schools, and home schools. So to give you walk you through this a little bit. So again, the solid line is observed. The uh dash line is uh is forecasted. Bursts have continued to decline, but we do anticipate them kind of leveling off. Um which is what we normally see demographically. Um but
027they're still still continuing to decline. You had 697 births born to resident mothers of Chapel Hiller Carbor in 2015. In 2025, it was 550. It's a big drop. So that's necessarily unless a lot of people move into the district lot necessarily fewer kids in kindergarten five years later. Kindergarten to birth ratios again this is what we look at. We look at kids number of kids born and then how many show up in in and kindergarten five years later. um ratios over one indicate that there is in migration of families with young children, but that has declined as I told you back in October of last year. Has declined since 2019 2020. It's not negative yet. It's not below one yet, but it has it has declined. Population age 5 to 17, as I mentioned to
028you uh last time I was here, has been decreasing over the last several years. If you could see this little dip right here, since the pandemic, we've seen the overall population 5 to 17 has has decreased in in Chapel Hill and Carbborough pointing to net out migration and lower births. Both of those things at the same yes and so diversa diversification of market share. This is the share of 5 to 17 year olds who live within the district and are attending Chapel Carver City Schools that has declined since the pandemic with a slight uptick in 2022 and slowed decline since charter school enrollment. This is your charter the regardless of how one feels about charter schools. The good news the good thing for people like me with charter schools is that they build directly to
029you. So we know exactly how many students go to charter schools. We know where they are. Um so this is you had 166 residents students who were residents of your district in 202021 attending charter schools that has increased to 231 in 2425. This is uh enrollment in private schools and home schools. And I I think I mentioned this last time as it currently stands. So the blue line is private school enrollment. The orange line is homeschool enrollment. the these are somewhat limited. The home school is a little bit better. The private schools only refer to the number of students who attend private school that are physically located inside uh Orange County, right? So, these are limited. We we we'd have to pour through transcript data and and and other data to know exactly how many
030of those people were attending Chapel Carbor City previously and then went to private school. Nonetheless, we know that it's increasing, right? Um, you can see the big uptick in uh in homeschool enrollment during the pandemic. That has since declined, but it's still well above pre- pandemic numbers. In 2024, there were 714 um students that were attending home schools compared to 616 in 2019. Um, private school enrollment 544 in 2019 up to 662 in in 2024. these what we're going to be adjusting um more intently as we move forward in the next in the coming weeks with the model. Um yes ma'am >> sorry can you just repeat what you said before? So the 662 in private school that number is simply people who live in our district or in Orange County but that go to
031and go to school in Orange County >> people that go to a private school in Orange County. So it does not so it does not include people in our district who go to school in Durham County for example. >> No, that's right. That's exactly right. >> A lot of schools are in Durham County. >> That is a big limitation of how private school data is currently available to us. >> Okay. Thank you. I just want to make sure I understood that number. >> Right. That's right. >> Can I ask another clarifying question? But that also could mean that a very small number of this 662 actually lives in Orange County as well. >> It could also mean that. That's correct. All right. >> That's correct. Nonetheless, we know that it's affecting Chapel Carpet City Schools,
032right? Homeschool enrollment, I've just walked you through this. I mean, that surged during the pandemic. Um, it has now has come down substantially, but it's still well above prepandemic numbers. 61% increase between 18 and 21, 30% drop. Private school enrollment has been steadily increasing since 2021. Um it's 24 24% increase between 21 and 24 and we assume that that's going to continue to increase especially with the expansion of private school vouchers. Wrapping up again just to reiterate the decline is driven by a couple of factors is births it's uh we anticipate births will continue to decline. E and even if birth to kindergarten ratios aren't declining that will be fewer children in kindergarten the enro that that COVID cohort kindergarten cohort is now aging through and will be aging through the whole entire system as
033we round out to 2030 into 2035. As a matter of fact they'll be entering n high school in 2029 2030 if I'm not mistaken. And so [snorts] that's that could potentially affect mean lower numbers in high school and that's what we don't know. Are are we going to see more people coming back? We don't know that yet, right? Um that's that's the thing that we're hoping to continuously monitor and update as as we progress through this process. All right. With that, we'll open it up for questions. >> Or members, do you have any questions? Ronnie, go ahead. >> Thank you for the presentation. I was wondering about um economic trends like mortgage rates like I have a suspicion that we are not seeing more students in Chapel Hill right now because a lot of population
034are aging in place because my mortgage I got at 3% and now it's 7%. So how did I'm assuming you just assume uh included constant data from over time so no assumptions about changes in economic policies >> right? We do not assume changes in that policy. >> Um but we >> So as that changes, we might see that trend shift if if more families with younger children can afford to live in cover. >> It absolutely could, right? We have to base this on historical trends. Uh but you're absolutely correct that there is I mean demographic forecasts are not destiny, right? I'm not saying that there's nothing that could there's there's it's impossible for the ADM trends to reverse. What I'm saying is based on what we know, it's not likely. But it could it could
035happen absolutely. But we don't look at mortgage rates necessarily. But um we do look at migration and we look at uh the age of the population and that's kind of baked in, right? But that's a those are great questions. Yes sir. >> So um based on some of the projections that you've shared through 2035, it appears that perhaps the decline in enrollment is not as sharp as what we've experienced between the pandemic and say, you know, this year. >> Oh, absolutely. Now there's a little of flattening that we can see in the data. Is that >> that's what we're that's what we're that's what we're forecasting right now. Yes, we assume that we will continue to decline, but that that that that that line will will will abate that that those sharp declines that you
036saw uh and those years following COVID, you were not going to see that level of decline moving forward. >> But even between last year and this year, I mean, it was about 350 kids. That's pretty pretty sharp. >> That's correct. But it looks like there's an average of I don't know maybe 150 over per year over the next 10 years or so, >> right? >> Okay. >> Because we're expecting those births to decline, but we're expecting them to level off, right? And then you you year over year, you see people coming back in high school. Your grade progression ratios in high school, I don't want to get into the nitty-gritty with this tonight. It was I don't want to get too in the weeds, but your grade progression ratios in high school are above one,
037right? So you got people moving back in or coming in in high school. And so those are the thing that's what in in many respects that is keeping keeping you from the sharp declines. >> Excuse me. >> Yes. >> No. With the data that we're using, it's only K through 12. There's no um consideration of preK or Head Start here. >> Not those numbers. >> Not in these forecasts. No. >> Okay. So, if just and I'm just out there now, if we're find ourselves in a position where we can get more numbers and Lord knows be able to find some universal prek and head start for students, we would be very appealing to bring people in for something that's definitely a need. >> I'm always an advocate for expanding access to early early care and
038education. Absolutely. >> Yes, sir. >> Thanks. Thanks, Nate, for the data. Um, is is there anything unique about Orange County andor Chapel Hill, Carbborough compared to Durham, Wake Chadam that you've worked with that or are we just looking like everybody else and we need to kind of know that too? >> That's a great question. Um, compared to you are unique. I mean, you're not the same as Wake or Durham. We don't do Durham's forecasting, but I've looked at their ADM numbers. We do do Wakes. Um, so Orange County has not experienced the levels of inmigration of working age people that Wake County has and it's just the size. It's an urbanicity issue. It's a, you know, along the rural urban continuum, Wake County is exponentially more urban. And so most of our in migration and
039so I to give you an example since 2020 North Carolina has added about 605,000 new residents. Third fastest growth in the country behind only Texas and Florida. 95% of that growth has been from in migration net migration. There's people moving out but there's more people moving in. Most of those people move to our urban cores and and Orange County has not experienced that level of inmigration that Wake and Durham have. That is unique. Um and most people that move worldwide, not everybody, but most people move for purposes of work. And so they're in those prime working ages, which also overlap with prime childbearing ages. And so it's not that in migrants, whether they're moving from another state or another country or another county necessarily have more children, but they're the most likely to have children.
040And so um Wake Orange Orange hasn't experienced that to the levels that Wake and Durham have. Also, um I would say that uh Orange is perhaps the most well- educated um among the most well highly educated uh school districts in in the country in ter if you look at the population 25 and older by educational attainment. More the more education people have the fewer children they often have and then the more they delay child birth. And so that is unique as well. Yes, >> Dr. Dollarer. I work for Dr. Trice and the board in communicating this information. And for the past several months, based on last year's presentation, >> we've been communicating the enrollment on somewhat of a district-wide level, overall numbers. >> This evening, for the first time, we see names of schools on
041the screen, which I think when we communicate this information again will resonate with a lot of people in our community. So I guess for now my question is is there anything we need to keep in mind when we see schools on a screen out of context? What do we need to remember that these are preliminary findings or that things can change? I I heard you mention it several times, but I'm wondering if you can help consolidate our thoughts in terms of how do we interpret or how do we uh understand or comprehend what we're seeing on the screen at this moment in time. >> That's a great question. Thanks Andy. Um so again, they are preliminary. So, we're going to we're going to uh have a full report that is going to be presented to
042the Orange County uh board of commissioners. Um and you all get your own copy, of course. Um but so, uh without the contact, so number one, elementary is dropping, right? So, you really need to be paying attention to that elementary school enrollment by capacity. Then you have to think about what that means moving forward. As you well know, ADM is important because that is what your funding from DPI is tied to. Fewer kids, fewer lower PMR2 or I know it's best one or two now. Lower ADM means fewer dollars, right? Um and so but that doesn't change the operational cost of operating a school necessarily. That stays largely the same regardless of the kids in many respects, right? Um, so I think that you're going to have to be looking at when you look at
043the enrollment, that's not all you need to take into consideration. And I know that Dr. Trice and his team are thinking through this. You got to think about what it makes the most sense. And that's when you have to start looking at um cost of operating the school, the age of the facility, things like that. Yeah, >> I think you hit on this with the age 2 through 17 slide, but what would be helpful I think for me is also the bigger picture of the mix of the community here beyond the two through 17 because you just >> 5 through 17. Yes, >> 5 through 17. But I think also seeing like what is the demographic trends across all age groups here because you're right if if we don't see a growth in that 18
044to 40 or 50 age group or whatever then that might give us an indication as well of well we don't have as many younger people living here and we start seeing a growth of older community members the likelihood of us increasing significantly. Birth rates also get smaller and smaller too or could >> well people don't have kids. >> Well yeah >> that is true right >> they can adopt well some old >> they can they can but generally old people are not likely to have that many children. So you're right and I don't have the data in front of me right now but Orange County has gotten older compared to its other triangle peers. >> That's right. >> Um uh that that that that Dr. Griffin was referring to a minute ago. Um, and we
045we we can certainly show you that what the growth in the 65 and and by age brackets and we we are we can certainly do that and that'll give you a better idea of what you're dealing with. >> That's right. Because if that continues to grow over time, even if we don't see it yet with, you know, school age kids, we could probably guess that we're going to see it at some point, >> right? And I think this gets to um uh board member Dossi's comment about people not selling their homes, people staying here, aging in place, which you want people to have to be able to age in place, too. That's not necessarily the school district's uh issue, right? You want people to age in place and age with dignity and all of those
046things. But if people are staying in their houses and they're not there's they're not selling their houses, that means that younger people aren't necessarily moving in. And if there's no other alternative options for them, then that could be a barrier to in migration as as as I think you were making that point. >> Yeah. My question is actually kind of attuned to what board member Dossi was asking. So we know that as we as we look at uh inefficiencies, the the organization of our district with what is trending as a population decline, we do have communities where there is an aging population and for whatever reason they're choosing to stay. But we also know that neighborhoods have I'll call it life cycles where they regenerate over time. Interest rates may be the reason why people
047are holding on to their homes. They're not moving to as a possibility. How are you able as we look at the projections and planning so that we don't um overcorrect uh over adjust? How do we keep that in mind where what data do you have access to to be able to say these are communities that if the timing is right and certain conditions change, you have a greater propensity to have that turnover to where it may turn around or and I would imagine that would be partnering with our two respective towns >> what their their long-term planning is. How do you incorporate that so that you don't overcorrect correct or make an assumption and then find that in six years that school that possibly had declining enrollment and we we guess that it's because of
048aging population, it then turns around and possibly we redistrict or did changes to balance our schools and then we find wh it's changed again. >> Yeah, that's a great question. So, yes, we work with planning departments in your in your municipalities and the county. um we we we're going to pour through all the approved and proposed developments. We also look at your historical um residential locations of your student population so we know where those people are and where and how they move as the as they're as they age through Chapel Car City Schools. And so we know which areas of the city you have the most of your student population and how that has changed over time. Now we don't have we we go back about 10 years. um we we haven't gone back that
049far. Um but we do take those those things into account. We work closely with the planning departments and what I was mentioning earlier is we drop we actually ground truth. We don't just assume you can get an approved project and we've known this working with other districts where there's there's lots of development. Just because a development is approved doesn't mean that the shovel ever meets the ground. And so we'll go out and and and ground ground truth and look and and and lay eyes on it and see okay they have they they've run water lines here. they've they've got foundations built. We can anticipate this. Sometimes the town the towns themselves or the municipalities or the counties actually have anticipated occupancy. Sometimes they don't. Um so we're going to be working with with your municipalities
050and the and the county government on those issues, too. >> Yes. >> I I think this is implicit, but I guess it's worth saying. So that I share Andy's concern about the fact that there's schools up there now and it feels like it's just a different step that we're taking and that those are tentative and preliminary and they also assume no redistricting, right? I mean the way you have the declines assumes that the lines that we have for each school are the same. >> Absolutely. That's a great question. That is correct. >> But the one school you had one school that's going to projected to go up, one elementary school. And I guess why? What's explain what explains that? I've got to look at and that that has to be because of Yeah, I have
051to look at that. I I can get back to you on that. Thank you. >> Yes, Dr. Fric. >> I'm sorry. >> Well, I was actually going to ask something similar to what Barb just asked, but could you go back to the slide that has the elementary schools listed? So you had mentioned I think specifically Glenwood was the one. So that's curious to me because Glenwood is not a community school. It's a magnet school. So like how if you're not looking at actual neighborhoods and capacity and all of that like how how do those numbers come to be especially because at least two of our schools draw from all over the district. >> Right. So, this was based on uh the historical patterns and what we anticipate from the feeders. Um I I have to
052look back through the model and see exactly what's going on there. I can get back to you on that, but that's what we're um Let me Can I get back to you on the specifics of that school? >> Yeah. So, in our last retreat, I remember you sharing that, you know, births were down not only in our community but in North Carolina. It was a global phenomena. I think you you were you were mentioning >> Birth rates. Yeah. >> Right. First, not necessarily, but >> here, right? Um and I believe it was Kern Huey, a reporter for the NN O, um reported today that 105 out of the 115 districts are experiencing declining enrollment. You know, perhaps birth rates, uh you mentioned vouchers. Are you able to tell by community or by district the impact
053that vouchers are having on that community? I mean, I know we've talked about private schools, home schools, charter schools, but are we able to tell, you know, within our district, you know, what is the impact of of vouchers? Um, >> as the currently the data that we have available don't allow us to do that as well as I would like to. So what we really need um and and it's possible that this data may become available um is um we need the LEA of residents LEA the school district of residents of the recipient of the voucher. That's the only way that we can know currently. That's not how that data are publicly reported. But that's what we really need to incorporate that and and know beyond the shadow of a doubt what the effect of
054the vouchers are on X school district. Um I will say um I haven't looked at the most updated data in the first couple years as we everyone anticipated most of the recipients were people who were already attending private school. So it did not have a huge effect. We do know that in in subsequent years the applications have far exceeded and so it's necessarily going to mean fewer students. Now for what district where is that going to impact? We don't have the answer to that yet but that's yeah that's what we need. We need the LEA of residents of the students of the recipients. >> Yes. >> Um so there was a circus yesterday that Dr. Trice and Dr. Griffin were invited to speak at um in Raleigh. And there was a report on that today
055and an article in the NNO that um was written by somebody who had previously written an op-ed on the topic and has some obvious political leanings, but he was saying, "Oh, there's now a narrative that birth rates are down and there's a narrative that housing costs are high and kind of like that's a woke explanation for why um enrollment is down." And the real reason is whatever. But I guess have you found widespread resistance to the idea that like there are facts about demographics. I mean I'm just trying to I think that's a really sinister. >> I have not >> like narrative and and I just am wondering how if it's just one person's like fever dream. >> I have not um and I speak to groups. I was telling Dr. Griffin I've given over
05640 presentations almost from Murphy Mano this year. Um, this is my last one of the calendar year and I'm taking some time off in a few weeks. Um, no, I speak to groups. I speak to chambers of commerce. I speak to uh boards of trustees of community colleges and people of all political persuasions and we are by character a nonpartisan group, right? in my experience. Now, they may talk about me when I leave the room, but people are very receptive to the the demographic data and socioeconomic and data that would that that that we present and are want it. There's a huge appetite for it. People want it for planning and for and for and for and for making strategic decisions. In my experience, regardless of political affiliation, I don't get that. Um, so not
057in my experience. I know that we are in desperate need of foster parents in Orange County. Do you all have numbers that of students between the age of five and 17 that we're losing in Orange County due to them having to be educated and housed outside of the county? >> Oh, that is a good question. And the answer to that is currently no. I do not have access to that data right now, but that's a great question. That's something that we can um we can look into. Thank you, Dr. Dollar. >> Thank you'all so much.