001e e e right we have one public comment this evening I like to call it sorry it's pretty I had two suggestions for the board um one is to provide information for the community to pre before the meeting so that we can come is this better thank you all right um I had two comments for the board one is to provide materials to the community members um before the meeting so we can pre them and come prepared to ask uh substantive questions and then the second thing is to have the common period after the formal presentation so that we could actually address the things that were presented thank you on information items this evening we have robp assciates en all right good evening um pleasure to be here tonight um first thank you for accommodating
002my schedule I have three kids in college so trying to get them this time of year is kind of fun but also trying to get you the information that you guys need so you can make a good decision is what tonight is about so as we begin this um Journey this evening there's a lot of information to cover and so let me talk a little bit about my team because we have a lot of people here who may be interested what what are the credentials of RSP so I'm Rob Schwarz I'm the owner of RSP founded the company a little over 20 years ago my background is a planner um from being a school planner being a planner for one of the fastest growing school districts in the state of Kansas um for 20 years
003doing the planning prior to that I was a city and county planner prior to that um a 98 Charlie military Tech analyst with the United States Army so a lot of my background is in Intel data analytics trying to make sense of information um think about it as Intel what we're talking about tonight is how can we make a good decision based on data RSP is more than just Rob there are other team members that have dis iines in the areas of planning statistics GIS which is mapping and then we also have former Educators that assist us when we get into um facilitation that's key because the information that I'm presenting to you tonight is going to come at you in many different facets some of them will be visuals with bars um graphs tables
004but most assuredly some maps um what we're trying to demonstrate to you tonight is that we've tried to look at every possible data point to help you understand what's going to happen with our future growth of students as we see some changes that are happening with our demographics on the number of people and the type of students is is very different in what we look at in the future we're also going to try to help illustrate that there is development that's coming it's it's in the pipeline and we have to plan for that and how do we plan for that in a sustainable way that your community is paying the the most efficient use of their tax dollars I've listed off a lot of different projects we do a lot of work um up here
005in the west side of the Chicago burb area and it'll range from enrollment analysis to Capacity Analysis um to facility Master plans and Boundary areas so tonight's meeting is a little bit different um it's just presenting to you information the board you asked for um some data some information to understand what's happening with enrollments demographic developments and then trying to understand capacity from a perspective that RSP calls functional capacity so we're going to talk about a lot of things and I know you may have many questions and so we're going to try to allow for that to happen this evening so that was a little bit about RSP in this final report um there's lots of things that that can be gleaned um from Individual pages so we've tried to make this where it's it's
006somewhat understandable with some of the technical terms that we use as planners or or analysts or geographers um but the point is that we want to leave you something that when you look at each of these Pages you understand what it could mean so there are some helpful hints when you look through this presentation that our team feels May assist you in understanding some of the information when it gets time to understand what do we think about population or what do we think about the development and how does this transfer over into the decisions you a board um need to make to accommodate the student learning experiences so the first thing is when you see a star on some of those pages we think that is like a signature page that helps you understand a
007whole bunch of information when you see a plus or a minus it's going to indicate where it is something that we're indicating it's a increase or a decrease with something that's happening in your community trust me there's not a lot of decrease um elements that we have in here most of it's increasing but again this is some some narration to help understand the report in general um there really are um five parts of this this is a typo on um each of the parts but they're broken down in these key categories so if you want to find some information from this report part one is the enrollment and demographics part two is going to get into the development and population part three is the capacity part four is the enrollment projections and then part five
008is the next steps so this this gives you that Synergy of how we build towards what potentially next steps are I also want to State when I talk about next steps these are considerations probably even more than just saying it's a recommendation things that we're gleaning as as planning experts for the last 20 years what have we seen other districts do when you're growing and and how do you think about those elements as you go through the understanding of this information so let's talk a little bit about um the enrollment and demographics so um I'd like to start out page six is kind of the the executive summary of what we're seeing in your report so it's broken in three key areas so when we look at your enrollments um you ask for a 10e
009projection and so as we're looking 10 years out you'll see what that growth expectation is over the next 10 years in this report I'll get into the details of how do we build towards understanding some of those yield rates and and existing units and the future units that are going to be built um but quite a bit of enrollment growth that's happening here when we look at the middle portion this is the capacity elements when we look at functional capacity of your buildings when we did that audit how does that start to relate to where we're going to have pinch points stresses in your buildings this is from a number standpoint what I have had conversations with your superintendent about is we didn't do a qualitative analyst of your buildings meaning that I was not
010there when the students are passing and whatnot but walking through this building or just being in this space you can't fit everybody into this Auditorium right and so there there's some pinch points that are happening in your buildings that also need to be a part of your decisions of what you do with certain buildings of how programs operate the number of kids that can be in classrooms all of those really cool things I'll talk more about that when we get to the function capacity because that that is an important Nuance to this the bottom part of this executive summary gets into the Outlook with developments um we've had a great advantage of some of the conversations um specifically with the city of Elgen on what's happening with growth um in K County some of the
011road projects infrastructure projects all of those have been melted into our analysis to understand a potential component of the timing of when some of these projects come online again I'll talk more in detail about some of those development this key page more people more capacity challenges and development is happening in your community so all potentially good or bad depending on your lens so then as I I move into some of the the cool things in the report there's visuals so I'm a I'm a visual person I imagine there's some people in the audience that are visual too and this map makes absolutely no sense if you look at the purple line right that purple line is is the District boundary these were set back in the 1960s and that's the geography that we have to
012work with with the students that reside in your District on this particular page we're showing you the cities or Villages that are potentially either in your boundary or just outside your boundaries so you get a sense of the geography of our our purple line and then how does that relate to these cities and villages we then looked at your Elementary attendance areas and so um you can see all these different colors representing your current Elementary attendance areas obviously we have one Middle School one high school two middle schools with different grade configurations right but one high school we further break your District into some known geographies that I as a planner I'm I'm interested in because I want to know some things specifically from the Census we just had the 2020 um denial census and
013so there's some really cool data that we can break down into these census blocks this map on page nine shows you the yellow lines which are census blocks you'll see they don't coincide very well with your District boundaries but I also show you on this map is what we call planning areas so we try to further break those census blocks into smaller known units that might be single family units mobile homes apartments duplexes Apartments whatever that could be to a level where we statistically can analyze what's happening so certain number of units certain number of kids that's important because everything that we do for understanding your future enrollment is tied to statistics so a sophisticated forecast model it's statistics it's regression I've listed off a lot of the variables that go into each of the
014ways in which we look at what's happening to the planning areas generally speaking with this formula there's a formula that gets into where a subdivision is completely built out what does that mean for a subdivision life cycle um so there's times where there's been a lot of kids then there's fewer kids then there might be more kids the bottom formula gets into a statistical analysis of areas that are emerging so new areas and how does this relate so the big difference is a timing component of what we would call a building permit allocation model that's built into this so if you think about any subdivision there's a certain number of units that have been built and so when we look information um that get into the economic cycle um that looks at who the builders
015are is it a DR Horton development versus something that's more of a local Builder how how does that transition into a certain number of kids that would be Elementary age middle school or high school so that's kind of a little bit into the modeling um page 11 really helps you understand if you say I don't believe or I think or I was drinking coffee with my church friends and they said XYZ was happening maybe some of those things will happen um we we do pretty darn well with our projections sort of covid we're typically 97 to 100% accurate in our five-year projections when we get 10 years out there's a lot of things that get into variance and so if you think about 10 years ago nobody even knew about covid nobody thought about some
016of these developments that we have out here on the West side of Elgen that are have aren't even built right so lots of things have changed what I want everyone to understand on page 11 is when you see our projections we're giving you a likely projection we don't give you a low mid High we give you a likely projection and to understand that if we under forecast your enrollments what are some of the variables that might have influenced us to under forecast so you can come here to page 11 and you look at the areas with the orange background those are some things that possibly happens um all of this is tied back to our modeling and the the beautiful thing about this by us creating a modeling like this let's say in two years
017or three years you want to do another study like this we can come back and look at what were our assumptions for how each development would build and how did it actually build out how did it generate a certain number of students another way to look at this information think about mortgage interest rates so if you remember if you're like me my interest rate on my house is 3% um right now it's about 7% that impacts what you can afford for a house every city when you sit down and talk to the the administrators or the people that serve on the boards they're trying to find the ability to have lowincome housing that that's a fight we're all trying to to get at right so when the interest rates go up what is Affordable changes
018quite a bit on the the amount of square footage the size of lot and whatnot so we' tried to factor some of those things in as we look in this tenuous time of a election year um there's some unknowns and that doesn't matter how um crazy it might feel right now it's this way every four years when we get to election years when I'm looking at uh developments and and what may happen so one of our next Landing points with understanding what's happening in your district is vierse and this has become really um a critical part in our modeling um more than um it has let's say 15 years ago when we were doing this and the reason is is we've started to pick up on a trend going back to 2018 um across the
019Midwest where we were starting to see fewer Live Verse so let's talk a little bit about this visual you see before you tonight um we're showing you the live birs based on the mother's address from 2009 through 2021 ideally would have 2022 2023 but that data is not with the source that we have been released but we look at some other things with hospital um information that's released and we don't see something that's that's changing dramatically from what you see here let me explain this data so we have the number of live births if you go back in King County in 2009 we had over 7700 live births come down to 2021 5600 um so one of the things that has proven out is when we have a pandemic we don't have children they just
020don't happen right we're living in a district where there's a lot of building happening so some of the stuff I'm sharing with you on live burst is morphed by the development we'll talk about that in a moment as you move across this table what we start to understand is what's the market number of kindergarteners that we potentially have five years later so when I track across in 2018 there was a little over 6300 live bursts come across that Row in 23 24 we had 309 k gers now one of the things that is not so nice about this data is if babies were born in September October November and December the chance of them being kindergarteners five years later pretty low right um the other thing that this doesn't fully account for is people that
021have moved into your community remember I talked about development so we had to to bridge some things with what we see specifically to the planning areas and what's being built what we then give you in those last three rows is what a potential poal range could be just with this variable of the number of kindergarteners that we could see if our market share stayed similar to what it has been over the last three to five years here's the rub on this with all of the new building we should start to track if the demographics come in and we'll share some of this here in a moment more towards the high side or potentially exceed the high side this is just one variable we start to tweak things out a little bit differently um when we
022look at things down to that planning area so as live burst just to kind of understand what's what's happening there what's going on with the people in your community number of kids that we potentially have five years later we then started to analyze what's happening with your enrollment by grade and so this goes back from the student date of the district Senus from 20145 school year through 2324 you see the number of students by grade and then to the right you see what the total is um for that pre2 number and then what that enrollment change has been year to year um one of the things that we talk about with a lot of districts is coming out of that pandemic year is what was covid recovery of our enrollment because we saw things where
023maybe it was stable or increasing and then it decreased right we saw about a 90 student decrease um we fully come back from from whatever that was and probably differently than some of our neighboring districts that we work with here um so again that's something that's that's unique to your district and it has a whole bunch of different variables that probably are influencing why we see that some other things that we started to look at with your enrollment is to get a sense of what's Happening as these students move through the system so do they grow do they decline do they stay the same so we started to look at that with that data on page 13 a little bit differently on page 14 so what is happening as those students cohort forward the way
024our team looks at this is two ways I look across the row to understand what's happened in any given school year but then I look up The Columns to understand is there a trend that we're seeing where there's an enrollment increase or decrease that we can try to track back to some of the data as it relates to any of the planing areas throughout your District to know hey we're going to see either a bounce up big bounce or maybe it's a small bounce and so when we look um from 8th to 9th grade we see that we um consistently have had increases sometimes double digits sometimes single digit so again you get a sense of what's happening with just your enrollment the next stopping point generally with your enrollment was was migration and so
025when I talk about migration this is with new students to the district or students that were receiving services and then the next year they're not receiving services from the district we're showing you here on page 15 um the last three school years and we show up by each of the grade bands of elementary middle school and high school you're typically going to see some similar colors if you're not color challenged you'll see um red is Elementary blue is Middle School Green is high school the green parts of the bars represent students that the previous school year were receiving services and then in the following school year they were not here receiving Services the orange part of the bar represents students the previous year they were not receiving services but they are in the school year
026that we're analyzing what we're trying to get a sense of with this migration is how quick is population changing for your students and we have a lot of new kiddos in the district the last three years have all been positive the first two if we go three years back two years back a much bigger gain than what we've seen some of that's related to our exiting senior class so I want to go back a couple slides and talk about another Point here when we look at generally your population when I examine your senior class I look at how does that compare to the incoming kindergarten class the following year so if we go back to the 2022 23 school year we had 335 seniors we come to last year's kindergarten class 309 so if that
027class is larger graduating than the incoming we have to make up the potential for growth in other ways that's explained by some of this migration there's there's things happening as as these students cohort into um a new school year year in and year out so was migration we then looked at what was potentially occurring with your out of District population and your out of District population when we geocode your students so match that address that's in your student database to a known address in um the county and City files there's students that would have an address that's not in your District when we go back to 201920 here to 23 24 you see that's significantly declined I think this is one important aspect to your District that may be different than some districts we work
028with with out of District students the out of District District students aren't driving the challenges you have with capacity what's driving your challenges is students that reside in your District boundary then the next Landing point that we had was to understand what the movement was between your Elementary buildings and basically it's it's negligible from a statistical s standpoint understanding this table the left side represents the school that the student student would actually reside in and as you move across the columns those would be the schools where the student actually was attending some of that might be from the parent choice some of that might be where programming is or is not um where I'm saying it's negligible is when we get to that far right column of net change very minor all single digits right
029all less than five student change when I read down the column that indicates where those were attending where where were they actually residing so you get that inout perspective on this particular table so again understanding some of the movement between the buildings um as we delve back into the planning areas um these next few pages provide a visual of what we're seeing as it relates to those planning areas this particular map with the planning areas we're trying to understand from five years ago what has changed with our student population or areas represent an increase green areas represent a decrease this changes year-to year and it's dependent on a lot of the things like when the housing product was built what the value of the housing product is um gets into the transiency or or uh
030what is the turnover rate of housing product in these areas so again just giving you a sense of where we're seeing change um here on this map we're illustrating with the student data where are the students students right so no surprise they're on the the east side of your District so this is a density map showing all your prek 12 students red represents the greatest density of students right we we we know this right where the housing is that's where we're going to see kids so some of this I'm just preaching to the choir you guys know what's happening in your District so really the the big thing that we saw um as a summary of this section was related that there are a couple things that could lead towards a negative uh meaning a
031decline um the first was liers the other was that if the senior classes continue to be similar or larger than the incoming kindergarten you have to rely on some of that cohort change um year to year to make up that difference some years it may be greater than others for the increases um there's a lot of just typical cohort growth that's happening and then with the migration those two elements start to say just from that enrollment standpoint there there's some some growth um that's going to continue happening in the district so that was enrollment I want to stop there for the board do we have any questions about just enrollment portions or you want to save your questions till we get to the end all right perfect we'll wait till the end all right perfect
032um so then then we transitioned in so so um I did a tour of your District driving around um I can't wait for the roundabout to go in on 20 I about wrecked my car um sure that's not a first for for anyone here um but so driving around your community there's lots of infrastructure there's lots of gaps in the infrastructure right and so being someone new to the area um that took me a while to get acclimated I imagine your bus drivers have a lot of fun with the interconnections and different road construction projects right so one of our stopping points with trying to understand development is shown on this page so I show three variables here and I want you to see how they have some sort of impact or correlation with each
033other so the green line represents census population as it relates to your District boundary and we had a denal census there's always adjustments and in almost every place that we work it's it declines a little bit as far as what the growth potential is but when you look at the last two years with that census population it shows it's just going up a lot higher than what we've seen in previous years that doesn't surprised me when we started to look at what's happening with the development the Blue Line represents your certificate of occupancies now I want to tell you there's a difference between building permits and certificate of occupancies we look at the building permits so we get a sense of what's in the queue we're more focused on the certificate of occupants because that's
034when households actually move into that housing product that's when we get kids it's different with the type of building that's occurring here there's some of your developments where it may take seven eight months to build that house others where it might be closer to four months so that's why it's important we under we look at the building permits but we're really trying to focus on what that certificate of occupancy is so we can see it's been pretty robust um over the last few years of greater than 100 units um in some years almost 250 units the red line represents our change in enrollment year to year so the first thing we're trying to understand is okay what's happening with population so we know it's increasing we know there's building activity that's occurring in your community
035but we know that doesn't always translate to the same number of students with either the population or the building Trend this gets into some of the nuances of who's having children what what's happening specifically with the Millennials um I don't plan on having any more children I already told you have three in college um so if you think about the cycle of life um who's having the children gen xers we shouldn't be having children anymore um it's the Millennials what we know about the Millennials they're waiting longer and they're having fewer children that means that as we look at our housing product that's not going to be a linear um thing that you can say we have 1,000 units and we're going to get this number of kids we show you some of that in
036the linear perspective to understand what we're getting for yield rates but it's definitely going to be a little bit different um as we see some of the choices the Millennials are making for how many and how long the next few pages are some of that demographic data that you get from how we're extracting from the Census or specifically one of our business partners ezri which is the largest mapping um company in the world and so we use a lot of their um data sets that correlate with census data so you get a sense of what our population is or income or housing or Workforce um again who's who's here some of this information that I'm talking about will be helpful in Grants that you all WR um because you'll be able to get some of
037this data a little bit easier at your um disposal than trying to to work through some of um the ACs or or census data sets we give you a couple comparatives um with the district um a neighboring District district and then what it relates um with uh things with the city or the county so you understand what it means with total population or some of the ethnicity components and who's who's here in our district um an infographic that starts to break down that population um so you can again understand what is our ability to have students I I want to give you a myriad of options that when you look at the data you can say with definitive understanding understanding yes we have a population that's moving here that's that's going to have children and
038we have to start providing whatever educational capacity that is needed at each of the different levels we even give you some of the census employment Outlook um so you get a sense of based on um the niic codes of who has jobs what are those jobs that live here and we show what their transportation to work is probably multiply that by two some days right um but you get a sense of like what what's happening in your community then I started to transition into yield rates and what does that mean when we're thinking about different types of housing that's that's in your community and I usually focus on Elementary because this really sets the window of what we can expect in future years I believe in the update that we have of this presentation in
039the appendix we also includeed where you can see the middle school and the high school but as we focus on the elementary K5 I'm simply stated with this table the bottom row is the district average of K5 units um for uh residential units how many students do we get for every 100 units and in 20145 that was 27 you can see some years it went up to 29 here in the last school year it dropped back down to 27 but in this time period we built almost 1,700 units so even when it goes down one unit for every 100 units we've built so many units we just have a lot of kids other things that you see on this table the green represents where it's three lower than what the district average is the orange
040represents where it's more than three from that District average so greater than and so to show you that there's differences between um each of our our elementary buildings average year buil so when we looked at the um King County data sets um with where product is um with each of the parcels the year that it was built um this gives us a sense of how old that housing product is and the color ramp in the legend helps you know what um specific time period that represents so the older time period is going to be in the purplish and then as you move to the blue the green the orange and the red becomes um newer housing product we look at the median home values um again some of this looks really skewed when we look
041at our planning areas and they're large and so it looks like hey we have all this very expensive Agland right I know there's a lot of corn and soybeans um out in areas that are red but there's probably a housing product with the assessed value you um that jumped up that planning area to say Hey look it's really expensive I know it's soybeans and corn right we we all drive around and I'm just when I was up here I had to be behind several tractors so um that happens again understanding what the age of the housing inventory and then what the cost is for the inventory impacts what we may see for the number of students in each of those planning areas we then with the yearbuilt data tried to understand where the cluster ing
042of units have been built Over The Last 5 Years we're zoomed out so you can see a greater extent of this east side of the district and also as an explanation almost every map is going to have an inset off to the bottom left we don't want anyone to think that I'm out here where we are in Burlington that there there's like nothing here there's stuff here but we're focusing on where do we see the development where do we see the kids when we zoom into um the east side of your District another way to look at all this development here on page 31 is to understand what's been built decade after decade so this visual when I get to the 1940s and moving forward the blue part of the bars represent the number of
043units that were available at the start of the decade the orange represents the units that were built in that decade except for the last column we only have basically three years of data and when you look at what's been built in three years of about 850 units um with what's planned to be built um we're going to blow out of the water likely our fastest decade which was the decade of 2000 to