001for all right well welcome everyone I'd like to call this meeting to order we tonight will be discussing the demographic study performed by Dr McKibben and um to discuss future growth of our school corporation which impacts the whole Township Welcome to our partners and throughout our community and with that I'll hand it over to Dr thank you very much uh yes appreciate Dr McKibben and his work as the board knows we have had demographic studies completed three different times prior to this our last one was in 2021 but that was before we had the 2020 census data so this is really the first demographic study that we have completed with the updated census data and then we also wanted to time this as the board knows we're heading into in efforts as we plan for
002our reconfiguration of schools to K5 Elementary 68 middle schools and we felt like updated demog Ace dat us as atate Dr mck and his work to prepare us for tonight we are live streaming this and also recording it so it can be on oursite access to our interested um I'd also like to add that Mrs Woodward is joining us via Zoom she's a little under the weather so she thought was best that she join us via Zoom but she will be able to take part in this conversation as well and so we're grateful for technology and I'm sure Dr mbid will introduce himself a little bit but he has been very involved in many School District while this is his first in graphic study with involved thank you very much uh thank you for all
003for coming this evening uh two things I want to go over before I um get into the details of the uh results of the population nor forecast um number one uh these are forecasts that are not projections a projection is where you take a variable usually year to years survivorship second to third third to fourth in your grades for the last five years create an algorithm and use that to literally project in the future quick easy simple cheap up until the mid 1990s about all you had in the way of school uh enrollment research the problem with the projection is is they're almost always wrong because the only way a projection can be correct is what's happened the last five years replicates itself over the next five or 10 and I don't know about anybody
004out there I don't want to see The Last Five Years again in my lifetime these are forecasts they're two-step procedure first thing we do is a full population forecast for each one of the elementary tenant areas build a fertility mortality migration model specific to demographic characteristics and dynamics of each area um looking at Census Data uh birth new home uh sales existing home sales much more important um household size um age distribution and we lay our hands on to build these models the results of the U pop forecast then drives the enrollment forecast so it's not your current or past demographic Trends or enrollment trends that dictate it it's your current and future demographic Dynamics and composition uh second thing don't let Spanish Fort Alabama fool you I was born raised in Fort Wayne um
005worked in Indiana demographics for 35 years my doctoral dissertation was on Indiana demographics um as before mentioned we've done over a 100 Indiana school districts and over 2,000 around the country been doing this for about 35 years anytime you're doing a forecast you have to have assumptions these are broad socioeconomic and demographic parameters that we use to build the forecast models and I have them all listed here they're in the report but I want to go through the what I call the big four and these are the four assumptions that have the highest probability or possibility of having error in them what we call systematic error um and random error in any kind of a forecast and of course the most important one is B the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stays between 5.5 and 7.5
006for the 10 years the forecast um couple three months ago was about 7.4 this morning it was about 6.4 they're coming down which is good it's not going to doing to help this this Summer's um home sales but this it's moving in the right direction why is this so important it dictates your home sales okay and um you you got to have a house to move into the district and that right now with the mortgage rat so high remember most people you know their lifetimes have not seen anything above three or 4% the last 10 15 years 7.4 was a great shock to them we're seeing them come down a little bit uh the other problem there is Supply you know they already aren't moving but that's a that's a factor but we're pretty confident
007we probably might get back down to that 5.5 sometime next year particularly if Drome pile starts cutting rates this next month uh but I firmly believe the days of three and a half four four and a half% 30-year fixed mortgage rates are are long behind us uh the second one I want to go over is I This is Indiana Indiana is the only state in the country that has interdistrict transfers Charters virtual and um uh vouchers going on all at the same time okay we saw a bit of a shock last year all districts did in Indiana they raised the minimum income level for voucher qualifications to $226,000 a year 96% of all households with kids not qualified for vouchers and had an impact so um we have the last seven years of the uh
008transfer reports downloaded to our computer and we have to hold as an assumption so we assume in these forecasts that the district will have a net student transfer of negative 1, 1300 per year over the next 10 years now you have about 135 coming in last year 6 uh 79 public going out and then another 714 nonpublic the non-public transfer rates are number went up about 200 students last year and again the before mentioned change in the voucher law we don't look for that to happen again this year you really they can't make it any more open than it is now so we don't think it's going to go up like it has been the last four or five years so we're going to hold constant 1300 net transfers um if the district changes their
009transfer policy you would have to add or subtract the impact of that from the forecast results but we're going to hold it at negative 1300 the other two is q and R um R we assume that dist will have at least Le 240 new single family housing units constructed per year over the next 10 years that includes Apartments town houses condos and the like but more important 820 existing home sales and this is where people get a little confused on the housing market um during covid and most people who downsize are in their 60s or 70s the elderly just stopped moving during Co and they haven't picked it back up up again okay um if you talk to any realtor out there they'll tell you the the supply of homes in the market the last
010couple years has been at a 20 30 40y year low that's what's causing the uh the shortage in Supply the Realtors seeing the opportunity are pushing everything they've got on the board plus trying to go through but even with that in virtually every school district not only in in the state but the country um existing home sales make up 80 to 85% of your housing market new home construction is only about 15 or 20% at best even at um uh Westfield Washington we just finished a study for them probably the fastest growing District in the state their new home construction still only 30% of their housing market and there's there's no way that 10 or 20% of your housing market can make up for a 20% shortfall in your existing home sales uh there was
011a great piece on Bloomberg several months ago they looked at the 200 largest metropolitan areas in the country uh looked at their 2023 total home sales versus 2019 and then only eight of those 200 were they back up the 2019 levels Indianapolis was not one of them okay so the the issue here is you see where the the average person on the streets you this building boom Going On they're building to beat the band but total home sales are still below what they were five years ago I pulled up I've got your latest Zillow report right next to me here you got 110 on the market right now you sold about 700 so far this year so you might make the 820 I I've have the forecast but it's going to be close but that's
012the true backbone of your housing market the new home construction will have like immediate impact in a specific attendance area but for the overall District if you're looking at the the overall Trends what your existing home sales like and they're just barely making that 820 right now so those are the numbers we'll be real careful on maybe we see a little bump here with the interest rates coming back down here in the fall but most people with kids move between April and August makes sense kids are of school and we're beyond that now so we've probably seen the bulk of households with kids moving uh in the district over the U for this year the number one predictive variable for population enrollment change is not birth it's not death it's not even migration yes what's
013the age structure of your population how is your population distributed across the life course now this is um the district total for the 2020 census pretty easy to read 0er to four that's your preschool 5 to n is roughly Elementary 10 to 14 middle 15 to 19 is your high school 20 to 34 are the ages where most people have kids 80% of all births occur to wom between the ages of 20 and 34 years old um you can have a total fertility rate of nine if you want if you can but if you don't have women in prime childbearing age you're not going to have that many births 35 to 54 are the ages where you have most people have kids in school there are some exceptions of that but you know that the
014vast majority 55 to 69 is what we referred to as the empty nest households these are the households and this is where kind of throws off people too you got the Smith family down the road in the same house for for 15 years 10 years ago there was Mom Dad and two kids in there but the kids grown up graduated high school move away so it's Mom and Dad's it so the household size went from four to two same owners but small household size 70 and plus what we call the turnover ages these are the ages where most people start downsizing some will start doing it in their 60s but the bulk of them don't do it till their 70s all right now when you look at this you can just kind of move it
015forward 10 years you can see a couple things happening and there's several key points points here you'll notice where the zero to four bar is smaller than 5 to n this is very very common in suburban school districts because you have very few people in your 20s Prime fertility ages if nobody moved in or moved out of the Avon School District you just left your own demographic devices your Elementary enrollment would probably drop by about four to 500 students because the cohorts coming in are smaller so over the next five years you're going to have people moving in bringing kids and all that and people would like to just add it to what they already have for enrollment not realizing those preschool cohorts coming in are smaller once you build up the size that 0o
016to four cohort by the time they're 5 to nine you need about 400 kids moving in just to break even when you do have households move in the vast majority of them are homeowners mostly in their 30s and you'll see that in migration you see your your largest adult age cohorts 40 to 44 that's going to move again that's your in migration flow but you you also look here at your 50 to 54 as they move forward you're going to have larger and larger cohorts aging into the empty nest ages and at the same time you're going to have larger and larger cohorts aging into the turnover ages in the 70s the problem for for Avon right now is the growth of your empty nest households is going up faster than your turnover households and
017it's probably going to uh when it's all said and done when you do add in the new households moving in it's just about Break Even okay now these are the district level Trends and you'll see um I've got the ones for the attendance areas coming up and you'll see that none of them exactly match the district some might come close but they all have their own unique demographic characteristics okay uh Cedar great example here um mostly um uh homeowners Hickory in the same situation A a much smaller number of people in the 20s though so a bigger deficit the 0o to4 maple has a more even distribution of their population the one reason for that is there's more Apartments there you don't come out of college and buy a house you come out of college
018you rent an apartment and then start your family there and then they usually most people don't want to raise kids in the apartment they'll move out to a home in suburban area a lot of times the same school district pine tree same situation much more even distribution the population little little dip in the early 20s and also the zero to four but also a higher proportion going into the empty nest ages River Burch again closer to the district model um you know a lack of people in their 20s and pretty good size deficit in the zero to four and Sycamore not quite as bad but still the same general Trend at that point next slide is looking at the household characteristics and you know a what the district's like can be how each attendance area
019is different you'll notice um only 38% of your households have under 18 population that includes preschooler so probably it's closer to like maybe a third uh of your households in the district have schoolage kids there is not a school district in this country where households with school aged kids make up a majority the last ones was in Utah about 20 years ago okay and this number is slowly declining and has been declining a little bit since 2010 um on the far right column we have persons per household now a very crude measurement here Mom Dad whatever the point is is kids so when you see changes in household size is disproportionately affects the under 18 population Avon like most areas of the country saw a drop in their household size the last 10 years um
020Avon uh dropped from 2.81 in 2010 to 2.75 now 0.006 doesn't sound like a lot until you multiply it by 20,000 housing units if the household size had stayed the same in 2020 as it was in 2010 there would have been about 1,200 more people counted the vast majority of those would have been under 18 population so again and think again this matches Metropolitan Indianapolis Indiana Midwest Nationwide Trends we're seeing a drop in household size and course corresponding one reason for that been the drop in birth all through the country the last 15 years home owners 35 to 54 about 42% this two is dropping as you have a larger proportion of housing units age into the emptiness ages the good news is 65 plus is at 22 and slowly Rising but look at the
021range in there you've got pine tree at 25 River Birch at 25 sickamore is at 18 okay and see a correlation on that same thing with uh home ownership rates um Hickory is at 91% Maple pine tree are down the mid 60s you know different Dynamics between homeowners and um uh renters renters on average tend to be younger still form in their families moving average every two two and a half years homeowners as a rule tend to have completed their family formation um then be a little wealthier and move in average every 14 years so two different complete Dynamics so the proportion of homeowners versus renters very key key variable here single person households about 20% not surprisingly the higher proportions are in the areas that have the more rental areas but the single over
02260 and these are the ones that are probably going to start turning over relatively quickly in this this decade probably the next five years you see pine tree is far above the the the district average now this is my favorite data from 2020 sentences we can look at individual year of age by attendance area and we could do two things here one we look at rail to relative cohort size I draw your attention to to Hickory six olds in 2010 125 drops to 79 pops back up to 103 so you look at the year-to-year changes oh we had this big drop this year of this big increase it must be growth or decline I'm going n it's probably just a small or large cohort going through and you could track those over time um these
0235-year-olds in 2010 those were your kindergarteners six-year-olds was first grade seven was second grade but now in in we up the fall of 2023 um those twoy olds are now five years old that's your kindergarten three-year-old is first second third so you can track um what the cohorts coming in are district total at the bottom notice in for the five-year-olds 756 the six-year olds were 804 you see the size of relative cohorts coming in and it drops off to 751 695 598 this tells us how many kids born in each age cohort need to move in just to break even as you can see your under one population which was born in 2019 is over 200 smaller than your first grade enrollment was or cohort was in 2020 so this is pretty sizable deficit that
024needs to have in migration and we do this for all levels but the district level we track this over time and we compare your actual enrollment with what you had for Census count the numbers in R of the first grade enrollment for the each year so in 2020 you had 726 first graders compared to an 803 cohort size count census that's about 90% that's about normal for your average um suburban area and then you can see going up you uh it goes up 87 down 87 then 80 93 and then 97 but if you go up the column you know the six-year olds in uh 2021 now first graders they're second graders in 22 they're third graders in 23 notice how the proportions go up 9 2 95 99 that's how we can measure the
025immigration rate by Birth Cohort so you can see it's it's going up in versally all the columns you know of course you're coming off the depth of covid but still a pretty healthy inmigration flow all right so we're there's clearly lots of people with with children moving into the district and showing up in your numbers but look at the kindergarten ones and that's your far left hand on each of the road 79 89 92 101% you know 703 the problem is is that cohort it's it's 101% of 695 so yeah the number is increasing over time but it's still much lower numerically than the first grade was four year five years earlier so it's saying this immigration flow is is enough to make up for for your uh deficit of Z to foury old but
026that's why you're not seeing as much growth as you might expect giving this number of people moving in you have to fill in that preschool deficit and your next two cohorts coming in are just barely 600 to start so if they were going to break even with uh what the uh first grade code was in 2010 or excuse me 2020 they need to be about 200 l ler that's a lot of immigration all this information goes into building the fertility mortality migration model for each of the elementaries this is the total for the district and there's there's two ways to read this you can follow an each group through time the five to Nines that's your elementaries 4,50 4200 4,90 420 or follow an eighth group over time 0 to Fours become five to NES
02710 to 15 15 to 19 okay so as you can see rather substantial in migration here between 20 and 25 almost 800 kids um and then another 150 as they go to 2030 mediate age that's the age where half the people are older and half are younger like almost every other area of the country it's going up going into the 40s these numbers this column here as we call the components of change this is the number of births in the fiveyear period 20 25 25 30 30 35 births stay pretty flat because the number of women prime childbearing age stays pretty flat the deaths go up not because of Any disease or covid but because of the Aging of the population a higher and higher proportion of your population above the age of 60 natural
028increase is the um excess of births over deaths you know it notice here it goes negative even before Co hit we had four states and 800 counties in the US with more deaths than births and even postco we're seeing this again Indiana has 50 of them already and they're picking up a couple of year but this is the dominant demographic trend of not only the state the region but the nation um over the next 15 years is the loss of natural increase excess of births over deaths as the baby boom moves into its 70s and 80s natural increase has been the backbone of Pop growth in this country for the last 200 years migration just been on top of it we're losing that that factor that's one reason why us growth rates are dropping off
029net migration 18850 now people say we had more than 1,800 people move in over those fiveyear periods well you did okay it's the net your biggest in migration flows are people 25 to 44 years old bring zero to nine year olds with them your biggest out migration flow is 18 to 22 year olds going off to college in people over the age of 65 the the net effect is you have 1,800 more moving in than moving out and that number stays pretty constant um even though you've got uh increasing number of seniors graduating off and going off to college and increasing number of people uh elderly moving out you're you're going to see a continued strong IM migration flow of young households bring their kids with them all of this information drives the enrollment forecast
030and the analogy I like to use here is a bucket of water if I put a bucket of water and I'm pouring water in the top if there's a hole in the bottom as long as I'm pouring in fast than it's going out the bottom the level will rise but for some reason the hole gets bigger and it's now going out faster than I'm pouring and I'm pouring in the same rate the level will drop enrollment works the same way once the size your K in one coh s coming in versus the size of your 12th grade cohorts going out okay now um you'll notice here that over the U well you can't see on this table but you're averaging in the 700s OR 12th grade classes they're going to 900s here by the end
031of the decade and stay that way and that's one reason why you're seeing a Slowdown overall enrollment growth not because there's fewer people moving in or more people move well they are more moving out there High School seniors so you've got larger and larger cohorts graduating out you'll notice the K and the one number stay fairly constant you know they're not that much change at all which is why you see a flattening in the K to four enrollments now the distribution's different throughout the district but the overall number um kind of a shift from from east to west in the district in your distribution your um uh intermediate enrollment does go up because you have not only people coming in with preschool age kids also moving in with Elementary age and some middle school and
032preschool kids or not preschool but intermediate and Middle School the Middle School stays kind of flat but your high school enrollment the one that's most concerned you've got a pretty sizable wave uh going under your current intermediate and and um middle schools into high school and those numbers are going to do nothing but go up for the rest of this decade peeking out about 3,800 and this is the the number I have the most confidence in because most of this increase in the High School enrollment it's not due to inmigration it's kids already living in the district they're just going to age into the high school so you're you're probably looking at close to 3,800 high school students um probably by the end of the decade then it'll start topping off as you have nine
03300 plus 12th grade cohorts going out you'll see the cohort size is kind of um evening out and you more of a modest Trend there all in all the district about 400 well 450 student growth about 45 per year but the big thing is the housing market has to hold up you have to have demand that'll which is going to be there there's always people trying to get out of Maran County the bigger problem is Supply okay we assume that as your aging Baby Boom population goes in their 70s they're going to start downsizing and moving out the peak of the baby boom is 67 years old this year the front end of it is 78 you go forward 10 years to 2033 the peak the baby boom is 77 and the front end of
034it is 88 so we're assuming they're going to start downsizing in larger and larger numbers as we go through uh as long as interest rates don't go crazy again that should provide a uh substantial housing stock for the market to allow new Young household to move in uh but that's going to be the key factor is not so much building but how many existing home sale you need to hit that 820 number um think you'll make it this year uh we'll we'll see what the how things shake out for 2025 but um we use Zillow realy track realter.com to do our tracking on that so by April of uh 2025 if you've got 450 homes on the market you're in pretty good shape if it's 500 I'm probably going to be a little too low
035if it's 400 or 350 I'm probably going to be a little too high and at that juncture I will open to question question stop sharing for a second to digest yes it is they so this has taken in um to affect um the per I'm assuming housing permits um we are under starting to look at a lot of building of neighborhoods so um did and maybe I missed it I was trying to take some notes did you talk about how many permits we have um been issued in the last year well with permits is you've got permits out there that were issued 2017 yet they haven't been built yet um I'm I'm looking at starts right now at this very moment you've got 23 new constructed homes on the market okay so what we're looking
036at is we're assuming that 240 of those will actually be sold per year okay um everybody got burned on that back in ' 08 um love to get this thing to work but again let me go back to the key Point 240 you need 820 existing homes to build you could permit 5600 new homes and build them a year if you don't sell any existing you're you're going to lose enrollment the the number more look at is you need close to a thousand over a thousand housing sales per year new and existing together and existing is far more important than new uh hi Dr McKim and it's Kim Woodward um you may have answered this um or maybe not but what is have you done any other demographic studies in Hendrick County that's question number
037one okay um Northwest Hendrick oh gez who's your neighbor south of you planfield that's right planfield um Brownsburg years ago um probably the most recent ones why well I'm just wondering if on a greater scale like especially planfield as a comparator is there any I I if you've seen one demographic study have you seen one demographic study or is there anything to learn from demographic studies that have been done in surrounding areas well the ones that most people compared themselves to are the ones up in Boon Hamilton County you know that's where a lot of the buildings going on sure um and again a lot of it comes down to AG structure yeah most people in Caramel right now are shocked at their enrollments dropping it's not shocking us at all because their aid structure
038they had they've been empty nesting to beat the band for about four or five years now well now it's starting to creep into Fishers starting to creep into Noblesville you know these these don't go into other areas of the state Southwest Allen Warwick County um you know you know this if you had an area that developed and had a lot of households built and moved in in the in the 90s and OTS more than likely there's still the original homeowners there in most cases their kids are grown away are mooved grown up moved away and they're empty nesters people think they're going to keep having kids coming out of there for they don't um it's usually about 14 to 16 years as you see kids in school you know and the parents just don't leave
039some will leave know people always wi you know they I don't live here anymore I don't want my kids to graduate going to move away 80 80% of the people don't downsized after their 60s you know 60% don't do till they after 70 you know that's that's where the real change is most of them stay put that's one big reason why your household size dropped last last decade was because of empty nesting so and the other thing is you don't have people in their 20s you know no suburban school district anywhere in the country has enough 20 early 30 year olds to maintain the birth they need in migration just to break even and and Avon's no different or planfield or or Brownsburg or any place else you know they they've got to have in
040migration if no one moves in their enrollment starts dropping tomorrow sure yep thank you for that anyone has a question feel free to will we Dr mcing especially when you look at kind of as we think about having element predicted we deed model middle schools it looks like they will open somewhere in the 800 to 900 range we talked about having three middle schools that was one of the concerns that our community shared they didn't really large Midol there are some really large middle schools in Indianapolis areer so as we' gone through this at numbers starting out8 obviously we've got a lot of construction school as the board knows years looking at different models there was even more construction that we had mastered at Avon school and the school don't wantu and as you look
041his projections are that we would be under at 3800 by early3 so I think the board made really good strategic decisions based off of the prev that we had and what our community told us data com sets usely structure element middle schools UL ultimately all leading Avon High School and feels like and and if I can add we're we're doing about eight redistricting projects around the country right now finishing up and we've done several hundred over the years I'll just throw you're doing it right folks um so and not many district can make that claim so go with what you got it um I I not going to name names a school district down South Carolina right now that I've worked with and they they just buil an elementary in school they don't need it's
042going to be about 18 months before their taxpayers figure this out I am so glad I just moved out of South Carolina so I don't want to hear about it U um but you know no this is um you got to remember that Avon's got some Geographic challenges too that um a lot of districts don't have I guess I the the one that I think would be closest to you guys probably Westfield Washington where um they have all of their primary growth in the South and the East and everything's going up north and west you you developed first in the in the East and it's kind of going out to the West you know and You' seen more and more growth particularly building construction out in the west well this is all true but while
043this is going on your East is empty nesting you know and um if you look a lot of the school districts around metropolitan Atlanta cob count the same way they they built all their schools in the East and this building went West so now they've got all their buildings where the kids aren't and all their kids where the buildings aren't so it's really a problem for them their attendance areas are really funky looking so you know it's trying to balance because the thing is when you pick the build of school you're stuck with it there for 50 60 70 years that's why you tell districts that that site selection is so important when you build a school and you the last thing you want to do is build them close to each other so you
044you guys with your plant actually in pretty good shape I mean and You' got a lot of restrictions on you know land availability Transportation issues things like that you know um race ethnicity social economics trying to balance those out very challenging but um at least you're you're addressing them to the best of your ability is given the constraints of of geography and and demographic dynamics of involed involved not Dr getting ready to lead a group we push that out to all of our parents all of our staff if they want to be involved in redistricting last we checked we had about people that were interested being a part of that and learning about all the decisions that go into redistricting but one of the our goal is that through about six or seven meetings with
045Dr Sullivan and our transportation team we will that committee will help us narrow down to two models of Lin that we can send to Dr plug it into his system and help us out what elementaries have douze ofct we opened it was overcrowed and so that was an area where we looked back and thought okay we we might have done that if we knew now what we excited to have his support along decision hopefully these right as we go through this significant structure it's difficult to redistrict it's tends to be more difficult on parents than it is kids but it is difficult it's a difficult transition and so we only want to do it and right and not have to turn around and do it again CP support hopefully be a never it's always been
046interesting 36 in our district US 36 has been a Great Dividing North Middle School and South Middle School have been so evenly I thought you were there and H is over here former principles at those building we have always kind of mared that that arbitrary line of us6 really Balan middle schools between and sou so that's one ofri further questions we willj our working session Dr mckb thank you so much such a working with you learn a lot I'm just really excited to see our end product when we get through your districting so thank you thank you my pleasure thank you so much have a good rest of the meeting thank you bye