001again thank you mrs. angle are members of the board members the public thank you for joining us tonight back in 2015 the then school board engaged dr. Susan Redford to conduct a demographic study and that study was shared with the public in this room with many of you here and that really provided some guidance for us over the next several years now we all drive around Avon and we see the growth we see the growth in our own neighborhoods and so we can't help wondering what's different in 2019 than it was in 2015 and so last fall please come join us we're delighted you could make it last fall the board elected to engage dr. Ludwig again to conduct another demographic study dr. Britvic has been with the board in other sessions to give up
002the preliminary view but now dr. Berg big is here today to share the final demographic study with us and with our public we should note that the meeting is being live-streamed for those who can't be here tonight it's also being recorded because even if you can't be here tonight we might not have the time to look at it but we'll have the opportunity also to put the final demographic study itself online so that you can get the study as you walked in this evening you probably I hope that you picked up a five page PowerPoint summary these says these are the main points that dr. Berg will be addressing tonight because that will help you as well and we didn't think she was gonna make it and I'm so grateful she pushed through and is
003here and just delighted to have her because it's so important all right everyone got some folks over here I've got a board over here so I'm going to be going like this a little bit but tonight I want to share it with you basically the demographic studying and just give you some sense of what we looked at first of all we started with it says eighteen 2018-19 that basically means we started with beginning of the school year okay so when I mentioned in like school years I'm basically talking variation between within a school year but we're basically saying putting up stake in the ground and saying you're always going to be looking at all so looking back 10 years essentially what has gone on with enrollment here in the school district and this is total
004its fall enrollment it's also ADM so average daily membership that's all really because that's where a lot of the funding comes from so it's our speed numbers and we're all for just looking at K through 12 and we're turning into governor's people because actually we didn't use to count them in that way they used to be kind of half days so they're just variations in numbers or something like that and going back so this is from year to year actually another thing to look at this is net change so you know we have those students who leave and students who come in you know there can always be it was like a churn the butter but we're just kind of mentioned where the butter it's a net number and that number is always one thing
005it's really important to know this ten year period here it's always above zero that's pretty significant that doesn't happen in a lot of school districts I think we're at 292 school districts or something like that the state of Indiana that doesn't happen in all all school districts it's very common though or maybe it's sort of common in a suburban area one like a time where people want to come come to the where homes are being built another thing on in this graphic that's - no is there a residents as well as non-residents or only alcohol transfer students so the residents are students who reside here in the township the non-residents are some students who might live someplace else might live in Danville might live in a Township Mike Linden Brownsburg but choose to be schooled
006here some of these students are employees as well of the district and if I recall correctly there's an HR policy in place to allow this but also students who come from outside the district do which alright I'm a business professor so I can say that so this is a basically ten year period I think this is really important to note here is especially in this area just consistently above zero that's really important so kind of visualize this a little bit peaks and valleys a little bit and then I'm going to go to the next one which is really doable notice how that kind of mirrors and essentially that is what's going on kind of you might know that we had a building bust in this county in this state nationwide [Music] it occurred about here
007so there's nothing unusual here with the township matter of fact this is still for this period pretty sizable building compared to many areas so it moves very well and so when I do a forecast this is one thing that will key what's happening from year to year as well as what's happening with home building potential construction we've seen it go on I did a little leather drive driving around today and earlier potentially up to about 1500 Lots in which could be built you know for instance right across the way over here there is a fairly large development that have slots I could be built and they're still building as well Turner traits I'm talking about that's that's something that was put in place before this and you know I know it's really many times we'd
008like to be interested in specific locations right what's going on in my backyard or across the way or you know over on the other side that's 36 and I am just looking overall what's going on across the board so that's another thing just because a whole lot homes not being built in you know when you look up the description window doesn't mean that it's not going on in other places one thing that I've been asked over time to look at was on average how many children can be born or or let me rephrase that how many children are in new homes and there's more than one source of this I'm pulling here from data it is called we love our acronyms a HS American Housing Survey okay so American Housing Survey is conducted every once
009in a while this one was conducted back in 2011 that was the best that we had in Indianapolis Metropolitan Area and I pulled some data for Hendrix and Johnson because the idea here is I'm trying to find areas that are like you the data is not perfect it's a survey but I'm trying to find areas that are like you and what can we say about that one thing that we learned when we did that was basically for every 100 homes that are built there's about 80 kids and now we're talking about new construction we're talking about homes that were built in the last four years we go to another data set and we ask another acronym American Community Survey ACS and they find the data just a little bit differently it's Johnson in Clark you
010might say what's coming Clark County is suburban Louisville it's an Indiana County but it's suburban Louisville and what we learned then with this with this data is that when a house is about ten years old you have two children so we are seeing even though it's not perfect for this area Breanna Stephen numbers that are kind of consistent and give us some indication of what's to expect another thing I think is really important about this data is when a home is older children are older or children eat out right so it is important to really focus on some of those newer homes another thing that's really important I'm going to put these side-by-side that's ACS in that speech a HS four years old ten years old both of these types of homes were talking about
011preschool kids as well we often don't think about the kids that are not yet in this school so a home the links really important we include that in part of the forecast and we're looking not just as school-aged children but we're also looking at your preschool age its countywide data so it is for offenders county so I've got to do some manipulation of the data and some regression and to make sure that I got the numbers and estimate the township correctly but what's interesting about this data and what makes it so very valuable is this data is based on the place of residence of mom was that mean well it means that mother have the baby here somewhere else Wishard one of the children's hospitals even the term shortens hospital and since again your mom's
012going to be coming here okay so it doesn't matter where baby is born it matters where my lips so so if you think about 2007 we're talking about a child who is now probably about age 11 it's also key so if we're seeing some bubbles and I think about these in this bubble some blips grade 5 probably a fairly large cohort moving through the district right and those children will be moving on in intermediate levels as well as high school 2007 also is a really important year because this was the first time statewide nationwide that we had a level of burst Eclipse the baby boom 50 years previous I think about this how really significant that is but that was the first time nationwide statewide and County why that we had a number that high
013and it eclipsed the baby boom and it was a one-off year rather than if you think about the baby baby but that actually happened so that's over 18 1850 1850 babies born and since then we have gone back to that number so that's also we've seen kind of this this note has come down another way to think about that and what that would suggest would mean in general you would expect fewer elementary students unless housing compensates that's kind of just another way to think about what's going these levels are fairly steady so those children are preschool age and will be elementary so another way to say is your elementary moments particularly early elementary are not expected to dip at all matter of fact may increase with everything dotted is a forecast I'm using data for
014the Indian from the Indiana Business Research Center as well as as well as data from the nation and we're basically saying we might get back to here somewhere out of here still that 2007 number is still but we're going to use this data this is Venapro records another thing you look at is this data does not necessarily reflect residents because children are private schools can go to the school of their choice but these are areas area so one thing we're looking at and this would be 2018-19 this would be the school year school enrollment decline over time since 2000 so it's pretty much across the board and in occurring over time on the other hand what we've seen this is American Community Survey and it's specific to this commission and this is basically a snapshot
015of percentage of children resident of this Township attending public school and you can see since 2005 basically that estimate that percentage has gone out now this is a survey it does have a margin of error right and that's what that plus or minus means but I think the trend is really important you can see what the trend is right right certainly the trend is going up so on average more children are attending public school rather than private school and the reason some of these are in red is this is the first time these last two estimated years that the margin of error was actually statistically significant meaning yes it really is but it is an estimate it is a survey and there was a margin in here but I think the trends very clear and
016then statistically the last two years are different than the first two years in history all right so putting all this together lots of words up here basically what it means is we're putting together the assumption now I'm going to say something that's maybe not what you want to hear but there's no one right number right there's there's basically assumptions and there's reasonable assumptions of the future none of us really has a crystal ball but in terms of planning and what to expect we have to get to some point say this is so what do we think is the most reasonable well we're going to see the burst of County residents continue to increase we're going to have some building of this we are actually seeing yeah building out of existing subdivisions assuming that we'll have
017ease congestion that can be a barrier to people wanting to live in a community or Lulla to community we're gonna expect to see an increase in the number of new housing units above and beyond current level so this will be called the base forecast or estimated forecast where we're saying 500 per year ten years out now we're just like over 300 ish we're assuming 500 per year ten years out things that we don't know about you know we can always have some changes in the public and private balance in plaintiff it doesn't even have to be in this district that could could have an impact one thing that we've talked about is the board before is this concept of Aging in Place what happens when you have a family mom and dad are in the
018household and kids are gone do they age in that household what we call Aging in place or do they sell that house and make room essentially for a new family this is still something a pattern we don't know very well we're watching it the word we don't have a specific assumption about that so it is important articulate that and we're not anticipating in any deviation from transfer students and we can talk about that maybe if that's we're not we're seeing a trend in the increase in sham transfers so what would enrollment look like in ten years out about ten thousand seven hundred that's an increase of about a thousand students the last ten years looking at four different grade levels actually are in the next draft Elementary to about 36 3,700 elementary grades 5 through
0196 from 1500 to about 1650 that's increase of about 150 students you can see how some especially we need some of these smaller ones great 7 & 8 from about 1500 to about 1750 computer years and for the high school students from about 3,100 to about 36 10 years and so going into high school now there's a one right number and so we do build a forecast with a low forecast and tight for cats largely driven by differences in our assumptions so the base forecast is at about five and the way I like to think about these scenarios is really it's the what if what if building return to lower levels and they are now what if building actually almost you know like hyper building yeah really strong strong growth like growth that might have
020occurred here say it in 2004-2005 when there was and that would be a high forecast what would occur in those situations so what would occur the high forecast lots of kids lots of students going out to over 13,000 students with basically a doubling and a little bit more so it I like thinking about it that way because that kind of gives you almost a gut check what would have to happen so what the kind of building you'd see around you right now would have to double and this would have to occur over time to get to this this low forecast this will forecast the big takeaway idea is 1690 660 is not very different from ninety seven twenty Willy that's not very differently looking at ten years and that was one building that was coming
021down a little bit that's actually insightful that means it's very unlikely your enrollments are going to define your home building would have to come down for your Romans just to decline a little bit that's another way to think about it so I think that's a really kind of thing by the insight to take away from that it's very unlikely and those will decide comparing us to maybe communities that have the development that's like 55 and older I've worked with a developer who is looking for land because the demographic says that Hendricks County and actually who further west does not have a sufficient amount of those type of developments in community that does have enough if there's actually a number do those aging-in-place families or adults do they tend to move to those areas or do
022they do you see that kind of outfits and they actually you know moving out of their home and into those facilities how do you see that with your demographic stance I mean I think there's a couple of things one is people will come back to live with the brain baby right so you do get people coming from outside what I don't know specifically is what has occurred here with the del Webb community in Plainfield and there's also del Webb community Ansan which isn't too far north of Brownsburg and I don't know the specifics about that like I do know that Anson has had some difficulty with growth just the development itself but I would you know really answer that question I think we have to look a little bit at what's going on in places
023okay I can tell you what's going on with del Webb community in hamilton southeastern and people are moving out of their homes in that community so they can stay near family and then leaves now a house rather than a house being built the house that is basically at least own market with children and that but that's also a very different market yes right Hamilton Southeastern is and has been for many many years the fastest growing school district in the state of Indiana so so I'm hesitant to answer that question specifically because I do think it's very community specific yes and that's fair because I was surprised by their demographic study that our area and going west is short compared to other communities and of course there's now going to be a very large but going
024in just in between Danville and a modern so to meet that need dr. predict I have a question about the buildable Lots that you say are presently in player about 1500 right and then in your excuse me in your forecast you show that on the low end in the next 10 years there would be two hundred and thirty units is that per year or is that in total so that a couple of questions that I would have it there are 1500 buildable or could be buildable I think that was your quote blocks it is there Democrats making information that would say what the increase in that that inventory is on a per ear basis in other words if there is 1500 now and say the third of those gets built in the next year then
025would a 15 with 500 houses being built be replenished by potentially 500 additional blocks that's an assumption yes I have that's a really good question I haven't tracked the availability over time okay great yeah and that's it that's it yeah because I think when I would we should know about that is just how quickly do buildable watts turn into actual housing yeah kiddos in them right that would join our school and you know that's another one's got so much variability you you know when you're talking about who's a builder who's not a builder is a custom or is it not custom you know and I think about turnip traits it's a really good example and how it's I think that personally it's a beautiful community that's why I know so much about it and and
026there it's something versus others aren't quite like that right yeah and so you know even though a lot of these are highly local decisions even that at that level is very difficult to estimate but I'm gonna totally understand what you're saying is because I mean it's important yeah another thing that I think impacts our community is non-residential but not in our communities to our north jobs continue to be warehousing jobs industry retail another continue to grow in Brownsburg because obviously they have access to i-74 and play fields same with i-70 and it seems that our community is where they live and send their children to school and then they work in those two communities so wouldn't there be also some benefit and looking at the impact factors of how much more industry can really be
027built and how many more jobs could really be garnered in communities which I mean one would have to say that the path the future predictor is best predicted by the past so if ours is that where they live in and send children to school then industry increase in those two if it is increasing with continued to impact us and I agree with that I also believe that the like American Housing Survey they asked people why did you choose where you live jobs are not at the top of that right Community Schools and so it's kind of a it's kind of a flip and so to give you a little context background I think is almost ashamed to say about 25 years ago when I first sent in the graphics they forget and then it was
028all the talk was United United United United was a Airport right the hub was coming in by the way it's not right right and and it was a question and it's totally legitimate right and like people are gonna choose this community and are gonna shift on this as people are gonna choose community and then can you do the job and and I do believe the data pretty much say that and speak to it yes I don't do agree with you right especially where the interstate is you know 25 years ago we were talking about it 865 you know now kind of its quasi Ronald Reagan but that's what we were talking about what would also impact that that's you know so yeah I totally agree but I think community means more to individuals they'll commute
029right folks will will Traverse us 36 to live here you know I think that's a really important the thing always you're right it but it's like what's most proximate what's and then the last thing that I think might be noteworthy for our public especially those viewing is that dr. Brad Vick did complete prior demographic study for us and I think it would be important for you to talk about the accuracy of the prediction of that because I think it lends credibility to the accuracy of the credibility of this one sure so I think this slides in here and I'm gonna zip through it really quick just to make sure I find it yes sorted so you don't have this handout apologies but it's kind of in Bekaa so this was all our forecast in 2016
030and this was what the enrollment was and two years I was off about so over two years I was off a hundred students I was off a good chunk of that was transfer students so those who don't live here and then about it's almost 70 with students that live here so that means over I was 35 students off one year and 35 students off when you get down to it but I think another thing that's really important about this is I was too low and that's also a reason why I'm here but it was within this range remember I get I showed the range and so ultimately I was too low but I was within 1% per year and I was in within the range and that's really the goal kind of the goal for
031me as before not like within 1% so and then this slide is 2016 to 2018 so yeah yeah and then I did a draft and then that's the bottom line and I still was too low so that's why when we went back and we retweet the 40 but my recollection is the first what was the first time that you came and engaged with us Oh 15 and I had I had forecast be really really really close now this is multiple years by like like wonder I might be you know tend to hot you know and things like that but over time this is what the snapshot was yeah so I think I talked about that with another staff member earlier today and so in even with this number thumb something some of the specific school
032level numbers might be really really good you you pointed out the 8hs data is this so this is true for us like when you went through our house he dated it was pretty accurate that we have 180 adults and 80 children so we then could assume from that as neighborhoods come on for every hundred homes that are built we will probably see a that's in it right and we've seen that we've seen this over time as well as with other districts the cautions I would say is first of all this is a gross no you know so at the end of the day we're looking at net so you might see people coming in but you've gotta remember there's also people potentially going correct this isn't net this is gross this is gross right still
033a survey that's estimated that includes Hendrix and Johnson okay now when I do your specific forecast I'm actually tying homebuilding directly to your grade level changes so it's you need the in specific okay further back slides are more specific to yes okay because that is very helpful in our planning as we look at the various entries and the needs that formula is very dense so reduce so this is then higher than this would be higher this would be higher on average right on average but what percentage would you well and what I would do is I would look at the homebuilding okay that's the forecast because that's where it's been tied and if you're seeing it higher or lower than that things should align okay window I would also it very helpful formula for the
034next few years exactly what I'm trying to okay yeah you know in the looking at the ranges I think where the pain points are can I can I jump ahead you mind just so you know in faced with decisions like you folks are faced with decisions I would looking at slide 19 or that slide for any grade level and say what point is this is a moment of 10,000 something that we have to address there's another way to think about that or for grades 5 through 6 or perhaps this one hey school is at what is 4,000 the point where it's a pain point we have to address it and what does that mean and well that's one way to think about that is that that's 4,000 a pain point right that's why I pick
035I wasn't making any judgment exact number but it does also is a way you know whatever numbers you just kind of track that and you can then what's reject to reality huh right we could be in a lower trajectory we could be on a higher trajectory and that tells you a little bit about your timing as well as what is most possible the thing about the high school is odds are this enrollment forecast is pretty not right because you got you've gotten in seventh grade and eighth grade together again fifth grade in the sixth grade you got them in elementary so right we all have a program people want to stay there choosing not to go somewhere else so you've got on and yes there's uncertainty that's why there's not a variation here yes there's
036uncertainty but there's actually probably more certainty in this forecast than any other because you kids are this may be a mission for you but it may also be a question for our school leadership as you just pointed out a question that is well defined in this is what are we gonna do this 450 new high school students good news of the thousand is that only 200 of the elementary because some of our Elementary's our first empathise and some couldn't probably handle another class patootie so is there a way to go into the underlying data we know what permits are already Abreu's into our boundary perhaps and take those 200 at the elementary level and make some suggestions about how that but you know daddy I am doing total numbers and you may have the seats
037of mum place and the kids so I think we we are so for the record for those who aren't aware we have seven elementary schools with very defined boundaries and we have a feeder system so that students in k4 will go to a specific Intermediate School and then a specific middle school so they have a tendency to be able to go with a cohort even though we have a number of transitions in our district but when we saw that our schools north of 36 specifically Sycamore and river birch or becoming more crowded than and some of our schools such as maple and pine tree have some room to grow two years ago with the approval of the board we worked with the town and when there was a new development that did not yet have
038a single home built in it we let the developers and the people that were considering buying homes in that new subdivision know that even though it looks on our map like they would attend a sigma elementary school they'll be going to maple elementary school and that respects our values of keeping neighborhoods together letting people know to the best extent we can when they purchase a home what school their child will be attend and so right now if you look at our map which you can find on our website or in our office it's all color coded but among those different colors there are four different neighborhoods that are white they're outlined in a white color to demonstrate that they are not going to the school to which they would normally be assigned we try to
039get ahead of that and let the developers and the families know that it's worked out very well so far but that is what we have been doing mr. Dana to try to stay ahead of this a little bit as dr. Windham said the town has been great about communicating with us and we appreciate that the developers are good about telling us when they think they will have first children coming to our school district but there's no doubt that we're going to have to continue to address the situation of some schools being more crowded than others and the whole notion that we had an opportunity to talk with our board about during a recent board retreat that our challenges are aggravated at the k4 level by the fact that we have some schools that are larger
040River virtue elementary with over 800 students is certainly at capacity and is now our second largest school out of 12 schools and then we have some smaller schools maple and white oak and pine tree with you know 300 students or something like that so that creates some challenges and this was a district that for many years was used to redistricting we actually had a class of students that was redistricting three times during their cave for careers now we have not redistricting since river birch opened and so this year's freshmen are last class that has been affected by redistricting so part of the reason we do these demographic studies is we know how important it is to our families to know what schools their children are going to attend we know our families do not want
041their children moved it's one thing when you're opening up a brand-new Elementary School everyone recognizes we need to move students but when it's simply about balancing schools that doesn't feel good and so we're attempting to stay ahead of it with new developments because we are trying very hard not to have to give any boundary adjustments as long as it's really possible within your in your data do you take in the sales market of existing homes and do you also look at foreclosures [Music] yes I did I have looked at retail the biggest problem with resale data is it's not it's so variable right so home gets listed it gets taken off for whatever reason it gets listed again and/or it goes on to the rental market and gets realistic and that creates what we call
042noise statistically right so when I've done some of these things and I did test the last time we sell data for this visit for this district it just it just creates so much noise you can't figure out what the signal is right you can't see a pattern and if you tell a statistical program you want to find a pattern they will tell you pattern and it doesn't mean it's the right one so I have not used it explicitly I've tested in a variety of ways and my takeaway from that it's just so variable markets are so different even within school districts and we've had so much change over time with the resale market that to do that would actually be misleading it would be great if it was too great dated because then it would
043even be you know more data points are good as long as they're good deep I to think that a lot of the kids aren't going to be living with Grandma and Grandpa - you know something's happened or maybe those kids want to come davon I I know a lot of people move to Avon or the schools and I think you know they work somewhere else and but they want to come nave on to to go to this school so I I think that's it don't do all the data everything he does playing people whole community people because certain places are new people or veena or being a certain community the school district there any more questions administrators do have any questions I would love to open it up to the audience I'm sure you have
044a lot of great thoughts and questions please feel free to stand up and ask questions [Music] we're actually waiting for the 2020 but when did the enrollment forecast those are grade by grade so we use the grade by grade rather than specifically by age it's interesting you mentioned that that came up last month I did another school board meeting with another school district it's the same site but it's like a question and I know it's not a perfect answer but we're gonna get really good data with the 2020 census so we're just one year off of that and the beauty of the 2020 census including for the school district will no black by block whether or not there's children whether or not there's somebody over eighteen will begin to know by census tracts and neighborhoods
045more of the variability you know in age so you know like a 65 class retired age versus under 18 so we do that for redistricting it's in the Constitution but it actually gives us some wonderful data we can use at the local level my first question is so you really aging-in-place that's really an unknown housing starts but there's really no data to talk about rates of Aging huge unknown and I think we'll find again with the 2020 census will learn more about this but also we can do some of this analysis at larger levels of geographies so that's another problem like we could do a fringe metro can you dive down and that's really one of the big no no worries and that's actually really good spot you could think about them being aggregated differently
046right so k24 is actually five grade levels 5 through 6 is only 2 7 through 8 is only 2 so if you're seeing comparable increases in 5 & 6 7 & 8 yes because you're seeing just two grade levels at a time and then we're going to four and so so that is the basic and that's actually going to mean that you're starting so typically what we see on average is fewer children per unit now start certainly with like villas patio homes attached doubles I think I would call doubles fewer children per unit and it does not necessarily make intuitive sense but fewer children per multifamily unit on average including fewer children on average and mobile homes I don't think we're talking about that a manufactured housing but that's what we see generally over time
047now to forecast apartments essentially what we do is we assume there's movements and they're put in but then we assume is a turning butter right so of course the people change but the numbers on the average don't so often what you see is a bump and then that's a level the thing with melting family is on average fewer but there might be warning how do you equate it sit for 3-bedroom it's half and then it's decremented to 2 and 1 so on average we're looking at 8.8 children right for 3 beds that we're looking at on average point and I think that might be a mill in previous happen in the previous studies typically 0.8 on average elder children yes her home we were saying okay thank you because that was a surprise to us
048we have this notion that apartments brought lots and lots of children to our school district and so dr. Rubik research revealed to us that that was not accurate and then we were also able to go and look at every apartment complex that is located in Washington Township and one source of data that we have is our transportation information and so we were able to confirm what you indicated that it's about point 5 students her apartment our motion is I think part of it is is just so many units in a smaller space now I'm an empty nester I'm an agent place guy I'm a four-bedroom house it's been empty for several years but we live there and we continue to like it and continue to improve it and the interest rate in our case being
049under two percent you know my gosh I'm going to go out and buy a new one and downsize and pay so some of us think those numbers are it's hard to equate but they are in there nothing from the from the town's perspective I think there's a wisdom to keep the housing market fresh to have some growth that's not burdensome to the school but we do have some growth to have new products out there to attract young families no I remember the term that you used honorific with us in the 2015 study was that aging-in-place was a wild card yes and of course we were coming off that recession when many people were fearful about selling their home and you know it does seem that there is more movement now but I like that term
050a wild card because there are lots of reasons we don't move you our leaders also with Wayne Township and back in the 90s they thought well their growth was done and was over and everybody was Aging in Place and then there was turnover right and then we touch up schools I you know I don't think you're there yeah it's but I mean that's a pattern that happened to your you know to the neighbor so I think it's something it's important to say and mention and you see this often in northern Johnson County I think you're seeing it more Greenwood area it's a different area also it's older on average homes older there than here but at some point moans here will also be as old as those homes are right now and so when that
051actually occurs this may be one of these things that'll be a wonderful study when we get that 2020 census data because it's such an interesting question that has such ramifications for especially local areas we don't think about smaller levels of geography in this way but it has implications for you know paramedic runs it has implications for any kind of social service in any small area geo right so we have now have this that we could learn through a little little thicker than a binder with even more in depth numbers we've already started looking at you mentioned another dimension that we had a retreat end of January and we started looking at okay what look in each building poll how many students how many do they have and is there development coming is there not development
052coming are they are they starting to decline in numbers so now that we can take this information we can plug that into the information we received at the end of last month and we can start looking at well what does this mean five years out for this elementary what can we what's this look like for the high school this is so full of gets formulas I look at as formulas because this tells me okay I've now honed in on how many phases are we going to be in these seats are we going to be filling and that's now what we will do over the next couple months next month next two months is we're going to start putting this information into what each building and how do we remedy river birch river birch is at
053capacity so how do we Bremen II that and so that's the next step that will leap leap for us and administrators want to add to that because that's kind of work that's really work or afternoon we have this major piece to this puzzle so I think if I work hearing the questions that I would have are are we going to be redistricting will there be any boundary adjustments and every year I say we'll make a decision openly publicly at board meetings with conversation and we will make that decision for the following year and I never guarantee anything beyond that so this time last year we said we don't need to adjust boundaries over the coming months the board will have that conversation we've done a lot of work to avoid that we're trying to avoid
054that so that's one question I would have as a parent another question I might have is how are we going to balance our small schools that have room with our large schools what are we going to do not just bodies it's not a matter of simply moving bodies we want to wrestle with the topic of are all of our students getting equitable experiences equitable education regardless of if they're in a smaller school or a larger school because there are going to be differences and there have been for as long as we've been in Avon we have had some smaller schools and some larger schools so I think that's a conversation we're going to want to have and then over the past two years our school district has accepted limited open enrollment students you'll recall that
055the year prior to the referendum so this would have been now three years ago the board made a decision to accept a very limited number of students from out side of our boundaries at the k4 level and at the freshman sophomore junior level and that was very hard for our community to understand wait a minute we have these large class sizes why would you take kids from other districts and we did that precisely because they brought with them a sizable amount of foundation tuition of support and we got to say which school they attended and we got to put them in the specific classroom so we were able to say wow maple has a second grade and it has 25 we think that's too many but if we took five open enrollment students we could
056split that into two classes and actually have smaller class sizes so it was really hard for our parents to understand during the 2017 18 schools excuse me during the 2016-17 school year why we would take students but we did and allowed us to hire nine additional elementary school teachers and allowed us to stave off the referendum so last year the board again at its March meeting made the decision to again accept limited open enrollment students last March March of 2018 at the k4 level and at the nine ten eleven level and again people said why are you doing this and we said because we don't know if we're gonna win that referendum and we have to head to our bets we need to take additional students to be able to reduce our class sizes and
057so we did then fast forward to May of 2018 we were very fortunate that our community supported our request for a general fund referendum and as a result we have been able to hire a number of both teachers and support staff to help our students be in a smaller environment and have greater opportunities and support that is again thanks to that referendum but we've always said that every year we'll revisit this topic and so in March at our board meeting we will bring a recommendation to the board about whether or not open enrollment is continued does it need to continue and if it should continue should it continue at any particular grade levels and so I want to also mention particularly since some people will be watching this from home that we don't kick kids
058out once they're here so if they joined us through the open enrollment program as a second grader this year and the board elects not to have open enrollment for the coming year we don't send them away that is not good for children and we do accept employees children as open enrollment so those things won't change but at its March board meeting out the board has an opportunity to digest this and the administration has not opportunity to look at those enrollment trends we will make some recommendations for the board's consideration and so that would be the other question that I as a parent might have will there continue to be open enrollment in the Avon Community Schools for this 2019-20 school year and one of the takeaways I have with this is there's no immediate need
059to build which I was very relieved when I looked through this I was very relieved by that because that's not that's just not really a road I really wanted to go down and I was hoping our community would be able to avoid that so that's one thing we can take off the table in the media time I'm really glad you say that because you said that mrs. Engel hurt and you know that might have been missed by people who don't spend their time looking at these kinds of things but that is important for our community to know because again during the request for the referendum there were lots of people that feared that after we got this referendum we're gonna come right back and ask to raise your taxes to build a new school and
060we didn't see that happening based on what we knew we also knew he couldn't afford to staff a new school but it is nice to have the data that clearly tell us that we are not going to be building a new building you know in the near term so leap will end on that very positively though any more questions Washington Township if it's great questions alright well thank you again for attending meeting and feel free to contact us if you have any questions after you've had time to think about this as well have a good night