001we would like to go like who's here right now and we projecting based on actual II did look at at that and basically kind of put 36 is a little bit of a dividing line blue or not actually the two sides of the district are just how even which is you're like wow I mean we can expect perhaps a little bit more robust growth the sound whether or not that matters enough for school of schools I'm not so sure you know because I think what's really struck me was how even it's almost it wasn't almost miraculous how even those those two areas were in Washington Township do you have an overall how many children / houses houses do i do I know precisely well approximate right but are we seeing that it's our tongues analyst
002or our children are we what do we see the purchased sold as we look at that see it's also our existing homes that are having children yeah Joey the so this is a base just that home starts also based on what's being bottle actually those numbers those numbers are fairly new homes and i believe the average age of those 22 year old home so Metro Metro numbers but we've looked at it and actually if you look at this angle you look at event they don't get it from an ankle and you get you know does this all right direction you can understand when the washing Township our days on market is lower yeah and so I was just wondering how that has influenced your numbers it's not influenced like directly per se but i can
003tell you forecast is calibrated specifically to experience okay yeah another another aspect to that the numbers multi-family units Brock and some other folks did a little bit of awkward because why we did this and they actually looked at recent performance and that number that's in there it says 33 age actually it was surprising is it was that number calculated specifically for public schools was 26 that's how close it is right so that's children those 30 children doesn't matter where they attend those numbers that came from from the schools 26 yeah if the actual so we've been looking at these in multiple ways i've been using statistical methods folks in central office have been looking into multiple ways and everything thanks you know it's kind of trying to misdirect networks in that direction are you getting
004the same if there is by building or in good shape part of the reason that we have empty classrooms and every one of our paying for buildings is because our class sizes have been uncomfortably large but as we are able to believe those class sizes we will still have room to add teachers and add classrooms so the capacity the technical capacity river virgin singer were built for 750 does that mean we can't go to 800 absolutely not be very simple to go to 800 the middle schools were built for 750 again could they accommodate 800 850 absolutely the high school can accommodate well over 3,000 probably about 3400 with no addition no changes to curriculum no changes to programming our most of our elementary schools were built for 500 as you know there are three
005portable classrooms and hickory they were not in use as individual classrooms this yearbook seeing that Hickory has been growing in the summer we refurbish those three portable classrooms to make sure that if we need them next year they're ready to go well throw our new intermediate are newer Intermediate School intermediate West was built for 750 of course our older Intermediate School intermediate East was never intended as an intermediate school and at one point when it was the only intermediate school we had a lot of hundred youngsters there so obviously we had lots of portable classrooms at that time but housing 750 800 850 Intermediate School are no problem is no problem so to answer your question mr Turner we have very sufficient capacity thanks to the building that was done in this community over the
006last several years specifically when we opened river birch we open middle schoolnorth we opened the Avon advanced learner those are the two the three most recent buildings that our board was wise enough to see and the bathrooms is that means we have a lot of debt the good news is it means when full day kindergarten came to pass we were able to accommodate all of our building kindergartners immediately and it means that we still have the capacity to grow will this board need to talk about what should happen to our facilities going forward yes I would imagine that two things that our board is going to want to discuss one is I think our board is going to want to address whether or not any boundaries would be tweaked k 4 because that was the
007question that started this whole thing and to absent the need to build another school which this would suggest to me not my decision that this would suggest to me that we're not looking at building another school in the near term our building that needs the attention that we've not been able to afford is intermediate least some of you may be aware of the classrooms if intermediate East are between six and seven hundred square feet or is the classrooms and all of our other buildings to a thousand so we've got some growing kids and some fairly large class sizes and under newest and very very small classrooms so that would be the building that I would think the board is going to want to talk about a little bit does that answer your question another another
008question that I know has been asked of me dr. Rudnick has to do with private school enrollment and I don't know if you are able to pull up slide it's page 31 of the full report and nor page 43 there we go okay there's one there okay so for the benefit of the public this is one important slide that talks about fact that the percentage of population role in public schools is actually increasing and so when we look back five years ago our school district at our public schools at eighty nine point five percent of the population or hendricks county it is now around 290 2.2 so i think in light of the whole conversation about public and private schools that's an important piece of information to know not dramatic but important and you know
009there's been talk in our community about the possibility of one of our private schools relocating or change in structure and i think what we concluded in your research concluded dr. eric is that not enough information is known about that whether or not that private school will relocate you know when it might relocate what the time you would be and so it's impossible to factor that into this enrollment forecast but obviously in one of our major private schools changed configurations or correct it potentially could have an impact because mean we did runs if i recall ransom scenarios it you know when you don't know we don't know exactly how many of those children actually are residents of the township which is a different question so we did run some scenarios on this is going to be
010enrollment enrolled in public school in Iran okay so this is actually based on ecs which is an american community survey it's actually done by the Census Bureau and it's for the township just FYI or is quite a bit of March or ver Eger right so that's 90% plus or minus to let some change but what I find very important and thing even more so than the number is the trend so even though there's a margin of error here it's the trend that's important so so I think this kind of in two pieces one is the number of school-age children is growing and then the share that are is going to public school is growing too also what's going on so you know so this is never perfect no does it have some error yes no
011I can't because that's the question is not cast that quote in their housing survey American to be researched okay all right thank you prior to the hour has so we can go to expand so things that may not be as we can talk about your particular school that's helpful but sometimes we have for english language learners it does not have to be we have move back to its place so that they can make well thank you for being here tonight I think this is actually we took two deep dives into this information before and tonight we look at it again and I think the board members would agree with me that every single time we look at the data something new comes up and something that we haven't ever seen before I think what is
012apparent to me in this information is that our growth in the future looks that it's going to be steady it looks that that when we had the huge jumps in enrollment in the ten years ago the board at that time had every reason to look at building new classrooms and maneuvering around that significant growth this is a much slower trajectory it appears to me and this is something that we will you know obviously need to watch very closely the other thing I think is evident in the data at least it is to me is that in an explosive growth you are getting new enrollments in every single grade in every single school but in smaller incremental growth like this that does not seem to be the case if one does not correlate for K through
013four doesn't necessarily correlate with what's happening in five six seven eight and so forth so it's a little bit tougher problem I think to take a look at that incrementally because of those changes not being Universal to each of the schools I think it is personally for me heartening to hear that our school corporation is anticipated to grow and that even though that growth is not what it has been in the past that the growth trajectory is still upward that gives me a lot of hope for Avon and our schools as we move onward and upward I believe that that speaks to some challenges in front of us but I also think that it's indicative that the quality of our schools continues to attract people with school-age children to move into our school district board
014members with observations with you the data I would just say that just a reminder this is a forecast and the only thing certain is that things change and so will be intuitive things as they change in the next few years but certainly this was a big help to give us some comfort and where we are over the near term the next few years hopefully anyway as we plan other things and try to do the best with the taxpayer dollars but I missed a change in the next ten years that whether positive or negative and I'm hoping it's positive and indicated maybe but those don't come to fruition for a few years we've been given a forecast obviously which is very helpful and there's obviously not going to be large grow so we don't have to
015be concerned about that but if there are changes in probe housing boom or increase interest rate I feel like we have a formula here to help us along the way now that we have the baseline of where we are how what indicators adjusts the numbers we can plug them in and learn from it and no okay we know from let's say apartments we generally have four students per hundred units so we know if we have a new residential apartment be built like we're looking at the Y or anywhere else we can put that into the formula and give us great information what to expect and then we can take that number and we can plug it into okay well house I going to affect this school system or are not system at the school specifically
016whether it's Sycamore wherever it fits into the boundaries so I feel like I've learned a lot like I have a lot of good tools now before me to be able to deal with growth deal with permits deal with apartments and be able to make good decisions based on teachers you know hiring or if we need to make some adjustment to the beats or horrible so I feel very educated and like I asked great rules going forward so thank you then you're a great teacher I would like to thank the time to come and listen to this these numbers can be daunting and you'll kill he'll go through them several times and truly try to come in and understand them and thank you what this is what we said we've been through this three or four
017times now and we learn something every time but thank you for taking when he enters to the time to want to know more about it and ask some thoughtful questions as well I think that as you have said and that the impact of growth is important and that we can evaluate it rationally with this kind of information that it's easy to react emotionally but to have something that we can do some calculations with is very helpful and also to react to others who may it's it's not our decision what goes where in the community but to be able to react with some factual information about what that impact might be think is important having been a part of the board when we were seeing exponential growth growing like 500 kids a year every healthy community
018wants to see some study nights growth and to see that that's kind of what you're showing us that we're not a stagnant community but we're not growing by one elementary school every two years either and so that that's good to know and I think helps us to direct our attention to is a building a new building doesn't need to be looking at or is it looking at remedying some of the problems we have within the existing buildings that could more adequately deal with the children that we have the projections of the children that we're going to have I think I learned that our capacity our physical capacity right now is pretty good we're still struggling with capacity at the classroom level and we're going to continue and that has nothing to do with the physical
019layout of our buildings that has to do with state funding for teachers so some of you may be unhappy with the fact that capacity is out of wood in the classroom that classroom has 35 kids in it that may be beyond our control and last the state funding keeps pace with what we need in order to hire enough teachers and this is my thing my thing is about the whole kid whole child and so while it's lovely that we've hired back 34 general ed teachers let's not forget that there are still classical general and teachers that were not hired back as well as we still have cuts in related arts that have never been replaced and so there are issues I think of that are important to the people in our community and that the
020reason why they chose to live in Avon that we can't remedy with the demographic study if it's got bigger things that we need to stay focused on so prove it big thank you very much for your your study and it does whiteness and just like pants that gives us the tools gives us the formulas they'll help us whatever the growth pattern will be in the future I think to understand and act for wisely than we know though is B and sort of confirms I mean just a cursory you have an understanding that our growth is leveling off you know that but it gives us an understanding of what we can do in the future then to to more accurately predict what we need to do thank you very much for that Kim this helps us
021that we don't have exponential growth ahead of us so we don't need to be focused on building another building that's what it tells me it tells me that we have good steady growth in seminaries we are or we need to be so now let's look at our buildings what do we need to do to make sure our buildings are where they need to be we always need to be make taken care of maintenance so that kind of shifts my attention that's where it's okay in some ways it does focus on budgeting ok so we're in the budget do we need to go so that's what it tells me we're not to focus on a huge growth because that that's a huge growth would be I mean that would be almost complete in some ways but
022yet it's good to have growth this tells us we don't have to focus on it i'm a person that really learn to talk analogy so let me give you one that I think what this means to me I think this was my annual physical and so in this annual physical I was told a little bit about my bloodwork my triglycerides I get a lot of information but the choices I made in order to focus on certain items kind of overtime my alter and change based on what I see as a projection that elvia is very thorough may not be highly predictive in its value I mean a lot can change that would highly influenced this do we as a board have our eyes on some of the key factors that we know are intrinsic to
023this report absolutely these are things that we have looked at and talked about over time but I think what we need to see is the change now this is our baseline physical we need to continue to watch incrementally what happens in the next school year and maybe the next school year after that and go back to the baseline and see how that might modify things such as capital improvements or an aging bus fleet or things that need to be looked at in terms of enrollments in each of our buildings infrastructure issues that we know that we face at least at one school in a great amount so well it doesn't necessarily this isn't the thing that guides our decision making it is very helpful to have this in order to make smarter decisions on behalf
024of our school corporation I think that's a great question about how actually get that deciding factor that this will be a short of things that we know now we have to keep our eyes on in order to to make those decisions that impact all of us in our schools and what started this was we're trying to decide boundaries so now we know we don't need to make you know and we don't make some sweeping boundary changes because we're not going to have excellent growth that's right then it can be quickly because then you have to start from the beginning with buildings and boundaries we now know we don't have to go that direction so we have to watch because this is this was done at a point in time and so suddenly a huge parcel
025of land gets sold and we learned that it's planned now for new housing starts okay that they're not going to happen tomorrow but as those build out the interest rates go down what's the likelihood in those are going to become new housing starts we now have a calculation that we can project and apply to okay we may be able to anticipate in a three-year build out of that neighborhood how many children for a year may come and what impact that may have on it's a great tool it's a part of the many heart tools that we just not the old data to know ya know it's been of many is the real child the real number with this and my tweaks are you meaning the rearrangement of the school boundaries well I think it's too
026soon to tell but there's nothing I will speak only as myself board members chime in there's nothing in this data that would say to me there is a glaringly obvious need to change school boundaries at all I mean there's nothing is popping out to me now can that change as we get closer see enrollment especially when as we talk about things like kindergarten enrollment kindergarten roundup really gives us a lot of data about what we need to do to adjust that school in that in real tongue but to say something jumps out of this demographic data that says it is of urgency for us to look at the boundaries nothing is popping out to me first on me and so to a parent who is in a school like River Burke which is at 773
027and thinks oh my gosh we're getting so big we've got to change boundaries I think what the board is starting to see and of course this is not the board's first blush of this they have been looking at this data reading this demographic study since November so you know you're all hearing some of this is the first time they've had multiple opportunities but I think what we're saying is we may need to make some adjustments and we may need to do some things in a physical building to accommodate in that building but it would not be my recommendation based on what I just heard the board say to come and say let's just start the whole cake fourth thing over you know it's been a long time since we've changed k for boundaries this year's
028fifth graders actually went to the same elementary school k for and they were the first group to do that in over a decade and our parents like that we heard that loudly last year with the efficiency task force we aren't crazy about changing batteries so when you decide to change boundaries you typically want to do it for a very compelling reason now we have some parents who have said hey it doesn't make sense to me that I go to this school if I'm willing to transport my child can we go to that school over the last three or four years we've done more and more of that that works for an individual family because oftentimes it also works very well for the school district but i think we say to ourselves we've got a few
029thousand came for students would we put them and their parents through the upheaval of a boundary adjustment based on these data and i think what i'm hearing the board say is not a lot of compelling reason to change boundaries at least not for next year that's right way that's kind of so incrementally you look at it every year and see just like and said this is a tool this is baseline will be additive to this information and we'll examine it again and again but but it was you know in the days of enormous growth that was a decision that really the board had to make because there were bursting at the seams we could no longer educate children in the environment that we had it was evident that we had to make those changes that
030I do not see in this data so far at least for this this upcoming year for sure are there any other questions or dr. Wyman any final thoughts a couple of things i would love to mention thank you for giving me the opportunity we had the opportunity to go through this demographic study with our administrative team and maybe you will experience this as they did which is once they saw the entire demographic study and i believe it is the board's intention to make that available to our community to all of you because tonight we just got a snapshot but there are so many things that we read about in this study that don't make sense if i'm a a white oak parent around river birch and what do you mean there's not a lot of
031growth I've seen tons of growth and so we have to remember that this is a k-12 look this is a much bigger look so for example I've had a number of people say to me but look at all the housing starts look at when you go out into the county and you see an ill name I did not drive over there and I'll look at all the new houses that are and now I've learned a couple things what I've learned that between permit and enrollment impact there's two years so I may be seeing something right now in terms of housing permits but our school district may not experience it in 2018 until 2018 the second point that I really had no appreciation for before here in reading this study is the concept of Aging in
032Place yes hendricks county population washington township population doubled in the last decade but the over-50 population tripled what does that say to us now is that is that simply because of the housing bust in that Lake 200,000 8 2010 2012 when I was trying to sell my house to move to this wonderful community you know that so many people hung on to their houses longer than normal who knows what we do know that aging in place is counteracting that new growth and so it's very very important to look at all of the factors that are indicating growth I know for a fact that our board will continue to discuss this we meet regularly if you're not available to come to board meetings the minutes are always posted on the website and our boards website so
033you can always keep up with information there and we will be also putting information out about the demographic study going forward as well as decisions that are being influenced by this I'm confident our next board meeting which is just a couple of weeks I think two weeks from tonight our next regular board meeting where the board actually takes action I'm quite confident that the board will be giving us some direction about what we need to be doing with this information and how we need to be going forward but for now I feel very good about the questions that our parents asked us a year ago right now when the efficiency task force finished its work and helped us become a much more lean and efficient school district this year and our parents said if you
034change the KFOR boundaries now how long will they last and our board SAT back and thought we don't really have good information about that so let's do some more research and let's make a thoughtful decision tonight information validates the question that our parents asked it validates the decision we made not to change boundaries this pasts this current school year and I think it supports the direction that we're moving we can't look just in front of us we do have to look at what we're going to do with intermediate least building absolutely if you have a child an intermediate least you know what I'm talking about we do have to look at whether or not down the road we do have more growth than we think a year from now two years from now would we
035expand any of our elementary schools what would we do to accommodate some of the schools that are a bit more crowded so this isn't one of those projects that gets tied up and meet in a neat little bow this is something that we're just going to constantly be talking about constantly be working on well again we'd like to thank everyone for taking your time tonight to come in here dr. briefing again thank you very much for your thorough work and your ability to translate that for us into data that we can actually use and and be acquainted with in our future decision making if there's nothing else we will be adjourned at 66 thank you very much