001tell carry this Farm I got school we'll call the meeting to order we'll start with the pledge to the flag of the United States of America and to the Republic for which it stands one nation under God indivisible with liy and justice for all thank everyone for for joining us this evening for the school board I want to remind everyone that we are live streaming the school board meeting tonight um so we'll welcome those who um are joining us via the worldwide web as well um so we'll start um with consent a motion to accept the consent agenda I have a motion by Earl do I have a second second second by Cheryl any discussion all those in favor next we'll um ask if anyone is present who would like to speak on any item
002um on the agenda or any other topic hearing none um we'll um move down to high ability showcase so we have students in our new elementary high ability program who are coming to Showcase some things they've been working on so far this year and talk about a recent field trip been taken so I'd like to introduce Miss Tiff Mrs Tiffany thiren our teacher for high ability and eel to take it [Music] away so this year we wanted to challenge our elementary students that qualified for the high ability program um we wanted to push employability skills and real life situations so this is where the shap program was formed these students work on social skills Hands-On activities Advanced learning problem solving and the engineering design process during mtss and when time is is a time set
003aside daily for students to work at their level these on here they get every single day 30 minutes a day to work on their project um so we have a districtwide Google classro F and sixth grade they are assigned a um project at the beginning of the week and there here they check their Google classroom and then they get to communicate with everyone throughout the district and work on their projects so will is up first to talk about hand food dry this is our first project um and September 1st was national food pantry day so this is how we pick things up so we all watched some videos and did some research about world hunger and we um wrote all the facts or just some facts that we chose on a poster and then we
004hung them up in our hallways and we encouraged students to bring in canned food to their um to their sorted place and then we donated them to a food pantry in Indian we to Samaritan food pantry so it took several car loads to take all of the food pantry items and the first thing they said was oh my gosh it's Christmas for so many people around here they were very thankful next September 11th activi so here's this is a model the Twin Towers I learned about the Twin Towers the first one that got hit did not fall first I used some card stock to cover it that look like all windows I use a popsicle stick for like the small thing on top and the inside I tap two bottles together and put use newspaper
005at the lids to make it even I tape that on the inside of the for the [Applause] base the next project was our state serial U research project and then a few of our sixth graders also did country so here's Violet we made a cereal box um and I made mine out of paper we had to print off a a picture of your state and put it on the box and then you have to write a brief history you have to put fun facts and then you have to write the products that are grown in alas like grown and then you had to do you had to put land forms that are found in your state and I did Alaska for this and I have a dog SL that I made out of popsicle sticks
006and uh pip cleaners and then some of our students kind of went above and beyond and they made a commercial so here's an example of one of our commercials from a fourth grader at frek have fun in the sun at Florida where the waters are blue I guarantee you will have fun with the waters and sand drink milk from a coconut and watch the crab Zoom by and try Gator bites uh the most recent project that we did the students all read different novels they did a book study and then created a Ford game to go with their novels so first we have Catherine and cry our board game the motorcyc G um um there's tons of places you can get stuff and get money and even money go to jail and you can go
007to the store buy Home and these are the players of the games so you start here and then there's these guys so you roll the dice and right there just got a six so and then we just got ,000 yeah this game's no [Laughter] [Music] joke so your game is kind of like what um we read a book about it and it's just it's like mixed with [Music] Monopoly and that's where we got the go to [Laughter] jail and we work together and yeah it's a really good board [Applause] game and next we Emma and William their we made a game called be boy it's represented about Monopoly and we have the little characters which are snails that are sort of represented by but they sort of go with the beetle theme and then we
008also have dice and money that goes with the Monopoly theme so how you play is you roll the dice and then you have to move the player spots and then you start out with $200 and then you have to pay if you land on one of the pay spots and then there's also free spots and then there's also a free parking which is how you get the money that's in the middle that you have to pay for the taxes so this project in particular was our first lengthy project that they have done it actually took them three to four weeks to finish this from start to finish so and then next we have our high ability field trip we just had on Friday so we took all of our high ability students to the community
009building and they Lear about Robotics and made robotic so we all made uh well we got split up into groups and then it was people that we had no idea who they were and then we all got to know each other and we all collaborated and made a robotic arm [Applause] so they worked on employability skills they worked on collaborating with students that they honestly had never met before um and they had to make a moving part so it was a success thank you for coming yeah thank you much appreciated moving around the and if anybody wants to change seats now that a back row is open that's fine we know we know how Jennings County people are we like back row so um I just want to um you know thank them for coming
010first of all um secondly I think you know when you're talking about high ability and yes you're learning all these skills them coming and presenting um is also part of the education it's part of the the teaching that they can get up in front of people and um you know do a speech or give a speech kind of a demonstration spe um it's very exciting that they're able to do that I can't imagine if I was that age getting up um no offense to anyone H but we're a little bit intimidating I imagine um but um they did a fantastic job and I wish that the cameras could have caught this side right um but they did a great job and so just thank the parents and all of the kids and the um teachers
011who teach these kids and ass them I want to thank the board for allowing us to add that position this year you know these are new opportunities the kids are getting in the schools because of the addition of that position and Tiffany also works with our um multilingual students at the same time she's been a fantastic addition to our elementary programming and I wanted to add just one quick thing on there because I went out spent some time out there Monday and to to go to different groups and to watch and one of the things that think about the learning process and what they're doing one of the more interesting things that we witnessed was these are high ability kids normally when they're in their normal groups they may tend to be the leader they
012when they were within a group of their peers how they interacted with each other especially not knowing each other it was very interesting to watch but uh they did a fantastic job to watch it was an interesting thing to go see well thanks Nikki for setting up that demonstration that was very nice very nice so we'll continue down the agenda um we're down to Old business we have some Neo policies yes asking for approval for this group of NE policies can we take all these reports do this as a um if everyone's okay we'll do this as a a bch do I have a motion to accept um the five Neola policies as written so moved I have a motion by Pat do I have a second have a second by Mary Lynn any discussion
013all those in favor 7 next we'll go down under bylaws um we have a motion asking for approval to adjust some meeting days this actually moves us back to the traditional um schedule for the second and fourth for most of these asking to move February 29th to February 22nd and March 14th to March 7th please asking for that approval so I have a motion by Travis do I have a second I have a second by Chelsea any discussion all those in favor 70 thank you next under new business we have an organizational structure inform just an inform we have updated our organizational structure this year it actually now matches what's in policy and that structure is that in addition to the superintendent there is an assistant to the superintendent for Education Carrie fills that role
014and then there is an assistant to the superintendent for operations and Philip fulfills that role the difference is that now there are departments that report to them directly so Philip is picking up um multiple other departments and operations such as Transportation um Food Service the business office and so that makes a a great impact on communication structure for our staff it gives them multiple people to get a hold of and get in touch with it also allows us to increase the support and communicate as we're talking through PL so just an inform on what that is and who's in each role again that item was an inform does anyone have any questions for Nikki okay and we'll go down to the next item under new business um and that's an adjustment asking for an adjustment
015um for Philip Marsh salary for $2,100 and that is due to because of that structured difference it's greatly increased Philips duties with supervision so all the operations departments report directly to Philip food service business office transportation and buildings and ground and so we're streamlining how that Administration works but it also has added quite a bit to Philip's duties to check in with each of those departments so asking for compensation for that additional work in time do I have a motion I have a motion right Chelsea do I have a second I have a second by Mary Lynn any discussion all those in favor 70 next we'll go down under programs um and enrollment study presentation yes so we are part of I saw an IU study recently that 70% of Corporations Public School corporations in
016Indiana have seen a Divine an enrollment we are one of those corporations um but for Forward Thinking and forward planning I really wanted to dig into and look at why that is and ask for some expert help on that I know we've tried to do some ex exit surveys and look at that ourself but really asking for someone who's an expert to come in and help us and so we've asked for Jerry McKibben from uh mckb demographic research he's worked with a lot of school corporations in Indiana especially those around us and so we've asked if he would do a study for us about what does the next 10 years look like within enrollment what are some factors to that um for a building to building and throughout the county so he's completed that report
017um you have a copy in front of you and he's GNA present those findings for us this evening so thank you m chairperson ladies and gentlemen board uh two things I want to do before I get into the uh ual results here and number one don't let Rock Hill South Carolina fool you I do not have a Southern accent I was born and raised in Fort Indiana went to Carol High School Northwest Allen uh used to be Indiana State demographer for six years in the 80s and 90s n you mentioned we've done close to 3,000 school districts in the last 35 years in 23 States and here in Indiana over 100 of them just on this trip Alone um we're covering besides you guys um El D Southwest Allen Huntington County Westfield Washington Lebanon South
018Hancock Franklin County that's just this trip so uh we we've covered a lot secondly and much more important these are forecasts they are not projections there's a very important distinction there a projection is where you take a variable usually year-to-year survivorship second third third fourth fourth and fifth over a fiveyear period create an algorithm and use those results to literally project out in the future it's very quick simple easy cheap and until about 1990 all you had in way from noral research the problem with a projection is it's almost never correct because the only way a projection to be correct is what's happened over the last 5ye period replicates itself over the next five and 10 years I don't know about anybody here I hopefully don't see the last five years again any time of
019my lifetime so this is a forecast twep procedure we do a full population forecast based off the 2020 census for each one of your Elementary attendance areas and build a fertility mortality migration model specific to each area based on their housing uh demographic characteristics the results of that population forecast then drives your enrollment forecast so it's your current and future demographic dynamics that dictate the future not your past Trends so anytime you're doing a forecast you have to have assumptions these are the uh broad socioeconomic demographic parameters so to speak that we use in building the modules and the next slide which I can press here here we go I don't want to go through all these but I want to go through the big four and these are the four that have the highest
020amount of variability I each to cause error going forward and the most important one is B we assume the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will stay between 5.5 and 7.5% in the next 10 years 7.6 this morning so we're kind of drifting back into that rank why is that so import the main variables that drive your housing market okay now there's kind of a generational split here those of us who are old enough to remember the 70s 80s and 90s when the 30-year fixed rate was 8 n 10 12% 7.6 SS pretty good my first home Marg was 8.5 we thought robing the bank kids today as anybody in the age of 40 have seen nothing but three three and a half four 15 years 7.6 sounds like Highway cck rate okay that's why you're seeing
021a slow down the housing market right now there's another Factor when you're going through the life course you don't come out of college and buy a house you're in an apartment that's where people start their families at then when the oldest child get to about five years old if you have the economic resources you're looking to get a a house you more space your A Little Piece of Heaven in the uh Countryside star and then later on you might get a moveup call well if you're in a starter home right now that you bought in the last four or five years and you've got a three three and a half 4% mortgage you're not going to get moving out of it to go to a 7 and a half% move up home it was a
022great piece on um uh CNBC just a couple days ago if you bought a $400,000 house two years ago at three and a half% going to buy same house today at 7 and a half it would add $1,000 a month your mortgage payment needless to say the move up Market has been stopped in its tracks reason why we have this funky housing market right now that's one of the reasons there's not enough homes in the market that's why Builders ready to build so much is because no one's put their homes in the market and existing home sales are 90% of your housing market new home constructions only 10% so now I'll be the first person to tell you if Jerome Powell keeps his foot on the gas and he's giving every indications that he's going
023to and those mortgage rates go up to eight 8 and half % my forecast will be too high conversely they go down to about five range five five and a half probably a little too low but professionally speaking I don't think we've seen we will ever see sub 5% mortgage raise again in our lifetimes that was a 10 year abnormality trying to jum housing housing market we won't go back to that level again the other two are on the next page thank you we assume that the district will have a net of 20 new single family housing units per year that's Net bill minus tear Downs demolitions and all that and 320 existing home sales okay now have no trouble you're going to make that 20 easily the 32 wor about we use zow realy
024track realtor.com that way you get your home sales down to the address level how long has been on the market price size price reductions property history it's all up on the internet now uh detailed information Market is going to be you might make 320 for this year been slower than last year there's there's only eight of the 200 largest metrop poar in the country whose existing home sales this year matched what it was in 2019 most D about 15 20% lower this Metropolitan Columbus is is one of them so I'm not really worried about that and of course this is Indiana you have to talk about transfers Indiana is the only state in the country that has vouchers Charters and in of transfers all going at the same time the only good thing out of
025that system is Indiana has the best student tracking system in the country far none no one's even close where they're coming from where they're going to have it for year to year we have it back 2017 we assume that you will have a continued net transfer of 450 students and that's about average for uh a school district Indiana we did H Southeast a couple years ago and they were shocked to find out that number for them is600 you know I can think of maybe a handful of districts in the country that the state where that number is positive um your big ones you're losing to are Bartholomew County CER Seymour and 502 Union School Corporation anybody know where Union School Corporation is they're legendary now in Indiana it's a little one town to Township uh
026School District in the Randolph County they have 400 students from K through 12 half of them don't even go to their own school and 5,000 virtual students they're Laing all the way in the bank every school district in the state has kids are transferring and showing up in new school car transfer numbers your number is 50 so and until the state does something about that that situation is going to persist so um again when we do our evaluations the forecast the first number we're going to pick to look at when December comes around the new transfer report comes out is at 450 that goes up or down that's a major source of variability state of Indiana and you can't look at en in the state without looking at the transfer policies and flows from District
027to District so now the number one predictive variable for future population and rment change it's not births it's not deaths it's not migration it is the AG structure of your population okay how is your population distributed across the life course this population pyramid it's a 2020 census for jenes County okay he very easy to read your 0 to four that's your preschoolers 5 to n is elementary middle school high school 234 is what we referred to as family formation ages 80% of bir Cur women between the ages of 20 and 34 years old you could have a total fertility rate of nine if you don't have women between 20 and 34 years old you don't have any births in fact if you see changes in number of births in the area it's usually not changes
028in birth rate but number women Prime child biring age birth rates in the US in Indiana have stayed a nice tight 15% range over the last 50 years between 1.6 and 2.0 average number in her lifetime so 35 to 54 are the ages where most people have kids in school nice crowd we had here earlier of course everybody gets up and leaves bar but um they were most of them the parents between 35 and 54 years old there are exceptions to that I was one of first time father 40 there's not that many of us in fact when my son graduated high school with a nice well behaved GRS on my head 55- 69 what we refer to is the empty nest households okay this is what gets confusing for people you got the Smith
029family down the road lived there for 20 years all right 10 years ago was Mom Dad and two kids in school but today the two kids have graduated gone off to college or wherever same house same owner four person households now a twers household and that's one thing people don't look at is a change in household size Jennings County like virtually everywhere else in the US saw a drop in household size the last decade it went from 2.64 in 2010 to 2.58 in uh 2020 now6 doesn't sound like a heck of a lot does it until you multiply it by 10,000 housing unit have the district if the household size had stayed the same in 2020 you would have counted 600 more people in the 2020 census now think about this stard Family household Mom
030Dad whever the point is is kids that 006 drop most of that 600 decline is under 18 population this helps explain why your Roman Trends are doing and how continues to drop okay 70 and over or we called the turnover uh ages most people don't start downsizing till the 70s you see a slight uptick at 62 another one at 65 usually the earlier ones are are those are the ones that go to Arizona or Florida or Texas or whatever most of them don't move the main driver for downsizing is either the death of one of thees they both lose the ability to drive there's one thing about JS County you need a car to function around here if they both lose the ability to drive can't maintain the home can't main the lifestyle and the
031like all right and this is something that's kind of postco too during Co Elder migration just stopped they just equipment and why would you move during a pandemic particular over the age of 70 away from your home your family your friends your support system your doctor your health care they just stopped moving and that is when we started seeing no homes go on the market and that's what broke down the existing housing market because they just weren't moving and we have a dire shortage of this country of Elder housing you know it's more than just retirement communities or or down south retirement communities you need something to smaller easily maintain in the same area just isn't that much of it my theory is they going to wind up mov in with their kids the kids
032are wild about that but uh but you can see this distribution that you've got a lot of households in the empty nest ages now and have some more coming in the next 10 years fortunately you've got large bars 10 years from now this 60 to 64 is going to be 70 to 74 every year going forward for the next 10 years you're going to have a higher and higher proportion of your households with empty nesters that are going to be looking at the downsize after 2028 it'll start becoming a major factor now we have one I'm go through quickly the same way for each one of the attendance areas I show some some key factors on each first one is there we go first creep now we've kept the scale the same on each one
033of these at 500 because you can then see the relative size of the population of each tenant area compared to the other ones and again BR Creek's got dominant older Pockets oh there was one more thing I forgot to mention pardon me see this zero to four bar see how it's smaller than 5 to nine age forward five years if nobody moves in you're just left to your own demographic devices your Elementary enrollment drops by about 300 people 300 students why because cohorts behind them are smaller than the ones in there right now okay it won't because you do have IM migration but one reason why you have this deficit is because the lack of women prime childbearing age uh about 90% of the Indiana school districts have this phenomenon going on only the urban
034core areas do not one with lots of Apartments now back to uh regular ones maybe pay for this AR there we go uh same basic structure over population a little bit of a deficit you go to Ram Creek we're see again the same phenomenon you know not quite as old as Brush Creek but still still old Hay Elementary again uh probably see a little bit quicker turnover out there but again a deficit 0 to four North Vernon okay here's one of the issues here North Veron has a disproportionately large amount of the district's population that's why all those other pyramids all look so small because they are small compared to North Veron biggest one in population closest one to the uh the district's average the county average and then come on Sand Creek which is
035the smallest one so you can see a real Stark difference here so you're out Ling Elementary tend there is much much much much smaller population than North Veron and uh CIO famous Roman general kind of somewhere in the middle but again this is one of the few that does not have Zer for deficit don't ask me why I don't know why cpio has the highest utility rate in the county and I'm not going down that road so but they also have a little younger population too so are going to see as much turnover as some of the other ones would be now this not what I wanted I do something oh we go now this is again the 2020 census and it shows each one of the areas and one thing dist total only not
036even a third of your households have under 18 population that includes preschoolers that's actually normal for you know ex orb Indiana 2.58 for household size but look at the range in there you've got everywhere from 273 at Sand Creek down 252 at at North Vernon uh again 02 doesn't sound like a lot till you multiply by the number of housing units has a rather substantial increase and again that difference is going to be mostly under 18 population there we go householders 3554 again roughly about a third correlates very well with the under 18 population pretty consistent over 65 about 28% this is a school district that's going to see an increasing number of households in turnover ages after particularly 2028 and again the range there is actually pretty tight Graham Creek at 31 uh not
037surprisingly North verin which is the urban core of the district at 27% the final column homeowners 76% owners versus renters called housing tenure demography an underappreciated variable because owners and renters have two completely different demographic Dynamics renters tend to be younger still forming their families and move in average about every two years homeowners tend to have completed their formation are old older for that purpose wealthier and moveing average every 14 years okay so one's more mobile one is not there's two numbers we look at one is kids per household and schoolage kids per household and apartments that number is very far apart because they're still forming their households they have a lot of preschoolers homeowners tend to have completed their household or family formation so the kids per household schoolage kid tend to be much
038closer together so you have to look at that and again there's a bit of a range here because most of the apartments that are in the the district are in North Vernon it's at 64 all the rest are occupied in their 80s so much more it takes a lot more time for the demographic in nursy to move and owner occupi than it does in rental uh majority of rental areas and then there we go single person household 25% of the housing units households in the district are single person 10% are single person over 65 these are the ones most likely to turn over in the short term and again wide range here 12% in North grin down to 7.9 CIO because Jennings count oh this is what need this 2020 census this is single year
039of age this gets a little complicated have to follow me here in 2020 fivey olds are your kindergarten moment six is first grade second third fourth fifth go forward to 2023 these twoy olds are now fivey olds and this is your kindergarten first second third fourth fifth we look at relative cohort side in 2010 your first grade cohort I'm Ling up correctly is 4177 that number progressively drops down to 306 so that tells me between 2020 and say 2025 or 26 you need 100 kids born in the 2019 birth cord to move into the district just to break even okay we can also identify cohor sies and there's a classic one here North Vernon 179 drops to 136 comes back up to 180 goes down to 159 one year does another Trend make so if
040you come come up to next year or should be last year too big drop in kindergarten in North Vernon oh my God it's everybody's just fleeing the district well no you should have about 40 less the cohort's 40 less see a big increase this oh everybody's moving in no just big cowork coming in we want to eliminate these um nonlinear factors you know it helps eliminate error we want something to link up to our demographic variables at the district level I'm an example here of this is what we call our your market share uh I'm going to leave you 20 bucks buy a new Clicker now the numbers of readed are your actual first grade enrollment for Year and that is a proportion of the actual Census count now two things no District gets 100%
041of their students you got perial you got Charter you got homeschool you got virtual no one's going to get 100% start now also 2020 is a depth to co so you had people using nonpublic options so these numbers are artificial ly low but it also tells us this bounce back here is not growth this is co returns this is 22 is a much better year to use as a base some 79 and then 78 we can see what the changes are as either in migration out migration or transfers we can do it by cohort and you see you're you're running in the 80s which is actually kind of normal for Indiana some the 70s but you're catching up a little bit with this drop off but you've got a couple of really small C- wordss
042coming in behind it one of the things about Co that you we're now starting to get some decent data after the co period and everybody fixated on deaths and that's true we had 400,000 excess deaths in 20 and again in 21 never no surprised at that what they didn't notice was birth dropped by 120,000 everybody oh social distancing burst go through the roof no social distancing they they kept away from each other so in Indiana the same Trend about 3% drop so everybody across the country even in migration is looking at smaller birth cohorts coming in in 24 and 25 pops back up in 22 but here in 23 it's dropping off again a continuation of a now almost 20year trend of declining bursts in the United States state of Indiana most counties um yeah
043it's it's basically a smaller pie out there uh because this is a county level District we can use Internal Revenue Service migration data I love IRS data because if you don't check in with them they will track you down you file your taxes if you've moved and you've changed counties you go to migrant file and they list by County we have the data all the way back to 1990 now because they made it available to researchers how many people moving into a county how many are moving out of the county and where they're from that the flow is more household they'll lose the county so this is the outmigration flow for Jennings County 2021 he had a,1 people moving out and here's where they're going to Bartholomew Jackson Jefferson deor Maran you know most migration
044short distance people think it's long distance it's actually short distance so you've got a th1 moving out you've got 1321 moving in so the net for that particular year is about 300 and where are they coming from Jackson Bartholomew Jefferson Decor Mari and Scott Ripley shortterm migration your main immigration flows are people 25 to 44 years old bring zero to nine year olds with them your biggest out migration flows are 18 to 24 year olds and people over the age of 70 and the 18 to 22 year olds are the ones going off the college Jennings County is suffering from refer to is the curse of the successful school system what is the curse well High graduation rate good test scores engage Community good Administration and board students are successful they graduate they go off
045to college and they don't come back you don't marry the boy or the Girl Next Door anymore you marry the boy or the girl next door and there's a great way to test that theory because this year the classes of uh 20 18 13 and 08 are having their 5 10 15y year reunions go to the reunions talk to the alumni and see how many still live in the district if it's 20% you're doing real well probably closer to 15 and that's a phenomenon that's happening all over okay do want the college degree jobs urban areas whereas my spouse's job urban area you're really linked into who's coming out of the Columbus area for Suburban flow uh all this information oh this is the charts for uh the last five years for Jennings County pretty
046close to zero the nice pop this year was not so much more people moving in but Fe were moving out is what really is helping you on this again but year to year it bounces between zero and about 200 people so just about bre on migration which is not enough because this is the pop forecast each attendance area has one this is the sum total for the district there's two ways to reach us one follow an age group over time zero or five to nine is your Elementary grades 1800 1700 1600 1600 or follow an agth group Through Time age cohort 0 to four becomes 5 to9 10 to 14 15 to 19 you always see a drop to 15 to 19 because the 18 19y old going off to college and you're counted where
047you go to school not where you're from 40.4 to 38.6 congratulations you're one of the very few districts in the state they're going to see a decline in median age which is good which means you got older people moving out people do it again you're swapping out older twers uh households for younger households that probably would have some kids in birth decline this is the fiveyear period 14 142 1380 not because of a decline in birth rate but due to a decline in women Prime childbearing Age Death goes up 14 okay used have more people in Prime dying age so I used to refer to Prime dying age as people over the age of 65 but now that I'm 68 any the AG so I we got to find a better term than that the
048line below that is natural increase that's the excess of births over deaths despite what you hear in the popular press foreign migration is not the backbone of US population growth the last 250 years has been natural increas birth over death even before Co we already had four states in 850 counties in the US more deaths and births Indiana has about 12 of them County and the state every year that is the dominant demographic trend of the next 15 years with the Aging baby boo bad news my fellow Boomers out there we're not going to live forever folks you know so the fact that you're negative that's a good thing you can have in migration the only way your population can grow and 400 natural negative natural increase is enough to keep your population pretty much
049flat way about your in migration so you're going to break even but again most counties are probably going to lose population as well as en R over the next 10 years particularly in exurban and rural areas net migration that's a net um number moving in number moving out and the corresponding change the results top forecast then drives the enal forecast okay now the analogy I use here is a bucket of water if I've get a bucket of water and I'm pouring water in the top and there's a hole in the bottom as long as I'm pouring in fast water the bottom level will rise but if for some reason the hole in the bottom gets bigger and it's now running out faster than pouring in pour in the same rate level will drop enrollment works
050the same way the size of your K And1 cohorts coming in versus the size of your 12th grade cohorts going out okay and you can see here that your 12th grade cohor you got some big ones going out 266 and that's why you see this drop particularly in the first uh five to six years but as the uh numbers start to come more into line you start seeing some migration you'll notice that de K in one enrollment St stud going up particularly after 2028 you know so going to start making up for that those large coverts going out so the district at 3792 this year 10 years from now about 3319 now that's probably the the the low point right there at at this point getting past 2030 you've seen all the big cohorts going
051out you're going to start seeing more and more empty nesters turning over either one of two things must happen the homes are going to home owners are going to move out go someplace else or you're going to have a lot of empty housing is sitting around here okay I think it's going to be the form so after 2030 that's where the turns going to start making the pace and the magnitude of elderly housing turnover will dictate your population norment change that's why you to track that with your existing home sales do it you know Zill realy track any use those two I love that website it um um you can also find out who's behind in their mortgage payment spice party you know my dad at Fort Wayne say what it look like in the
052neighborhood oh the Nortons are two months behind on payments you know my dad never got invit at any place but uh anyway um 25 minutes that's pretty good for me long College professors but uh questions I got I got one I'm 77 just look at day over 60 yeah thank you you must be in politics but anyway I I really enjoy it I know it's a lot of hard hard work but I'll be truthful with you the government screws these schools over to no end and you got a lot of people move into a Christian school a private school home school when this school can run it uh a lot better than government interference when you sign orders for men to play women's sports you got people leaving the school so I've had my say
053but uh they can run this school the teachers can run it the principals can run it we just need to be left alone that's it no argument of me from that at all uh and may I add to that sir that my own personal humble opinion they've declared World public education yes sir that's right and we are once again in our lifetimes going to see two separate and unequal schools Sy in the country not just Indiana but over the country but there's no way you could put a stat up there what the government's going to do because that causes a lot of our kids to leave our school uh look no than this year's law passed on vouchers which came out what was it 10 years ago now we got to help these poor kids
054that want to go to a private education 60,000 I think was the limit when it first came in then the household didn't came got kicked up to 150 this year they passed it to 220,000 uh one of the non-governmental groups up in Indianapolis according to the numbers 96% of all households in Indiana was kids now qualified per School vouchers okay so I don't but believe it or not if you think Indiana's bad oh God I got stories from other states that that will come your hair you know literally I mean every time the Govern tries to step in help over education make it worse we're live streaming this right I'm G to get nasty phone calls tomorrow I might get phone calls tonight does anyone else have any additional questions uh what kind of factors
055that flux right now that you're aware of and doing this study that could have a positive effect on that a positive is there anything 30 the 30-year fixed rate dropped a couple points wouldn't hurt um an increase in Elder housing think downsize somewhere close to even if it's just Columbus that way you can stay pretty close uh I I feel sorry for the elderly because they have no place to move and the kids don't want them you know my give me foring address you know 20 years you got to get this whole system moving again so the kids got to be able to afford a house to move into they got to have homes for sale from to do that this whole proc start going again there's a lot of demand out there and there's
056a lot of young people out there that don't want to live in urban areas don't want to live in Suburban cookie cutter places want a nice place out in the country and a good commute problem is is most households now are two income earners so they it's got to be in a location where both can go to work so if one works in North r one works in in um Columbus say or one Seymour James county is a no-brainer you know because you're probably not going to have enough jobs in in the county for both people you know so you're probably going to have to have split commutes and all that so I'd be targeting that kind of a population particularly people who want The Best of Both Worlds somewhere in between well and I'm
057sure you saw this you're aware of North Redevelopment committee that's been a a priority to try to uh subsidize and help in in getting more affordable housing in Jennings County and specifically in the north T City area and U they we've got a good start on that and you know I just wonder if if if that goes well would that that should have a positive impact things politicians that answer your question right there uh I've literally been to hundreds of school districts and cities and towns across country last year every single own us we're we're Four Square behind more affordable housing you know okay right you're going to tell that person dropped the price of their house ain't going to happen Builders they're not going to do it they're for the money unless they're subsidized
058nobody wants subsidized housing in their their towns they'll fight it okay it's not going to happen until you get people who bought a house in 2019 for $300,000 trying to sell it for 450 in 2023 which I look at that up on I'm trying to downsize myself right now I will not subsidize somebody else's greed so a lot of the people my age cohort just stop looking because we're the prices are right now so we have to be more realistic people pricing their homes and the mortgage rates are going to have to come down okay um we've written off there are student loan debts that should be able to afford houses now so um but I digress it it takes again you have 10,000 housing units in your in your school district over 10,000 we're
059gonna we're going to bring in 50 more units let's drop the bucket you need a couple hundred EMP ders downsize to move the needle a year I don't think they have a grasp of the magnitude of the issue um what kind of Industries have you noticed help or hinder these numbers we have like a large automotive industry around here mhm so is that in the long run going to help us or hinder us is it electric help you the batteries fastest growing labor intensive industry in the US today and for the next 20 years Elder Care Elder Services you want you want your kid to grandkid to have a job for the next two generations getting elder care which is not just just health care it's also Mobility Transportation nutrition um Physical Therapy you know
060there's a lot of issues a lot of factors of Elder Care out there um but you'll never go unemployed I'll tell you that because that number is another Skyrocket the baby boom front end of it 77 this year the peak of it is 67 go forward 10 years those numbers are 87 and 77 that's a growth industry and you got a lot you're in the middle of one of the fastest aging areas of the our country Western Indiana any other cheery new I can I'm actually to [Music] talk nikk is there anything you want to add no just thank you for all of your work and your team on this we were also able to um update our transportation Maps or enrollment District Maps as a part of this process and while the enrollment trend
061is not good news for us it does allow us to thoughtfully plan um and and think forward so I appreciate all the work of your team we did get a nice map out the deal we did but on that note and I should mention this too uh next September or now October I should say they changed the date again uh ADM date contact Nikki have her send me your ADM numbers by school total District by grade we do an evaluation for all of our districts for the first three years afterwards track it I want to see how I'm doing so that's that that's including the price of the project so I'll close on this story doing this for years and one of our long-term clients he heard of pen Harris mm School District it's the
062one just um uh east of South Bend uh we we do every we go up and do a presentation of our evaluation and a couple years back uh one year I had forecasted 12,24 students for that year and they had 12,241 worst thing that ever happened to me because now the board expects that same level AC so the next year I'm off by nine you know and I know a couple guys in the board they give me a hard time look at this it's a 900% increase in air we're paying for this so I just kind of ignore him but so be careful what you wish for you just might get it you know but if any other questions do come up Nick you know how to get a hold of me and all that
063and I'm I'm usually available by phone or email and do that thank thank you very much thank you thank you [Applause] for nikk I appreciate the I think the whole board appreciates um you know having all of this data having all of this information it's important that we make decisions bed B on data um so thank you for for doing this first any additional questions before we move on with the agenda so next on the agenda under our programs we have some new course editions for the 2425 this is just an inform of new courses at the Jennings County High School um for the 24 25 school year um we're excited to be able to offer our students some more opportunities especially in areas of CT and our graduation Pathways uh Mr Roller and M
064eving is here if anyone has any questions on this this item isn't in formed does anyone have any questions bring it back next time for a vote perfect thank you so much um next we'll go down under um professional staff we have some tutors it looks like yes um this is I'm asking for approval once the uh Grant is approved Title One grant for title title at St Mary's Abby capes Gretchen Hughes Lindsay Morris Angie Kelly Sandy kersner Ali Tyler and this is just our yearly approval for um non-public schools that's required by our grant okay so we'll entertain a motion um to accept those as written motion motion by ear I have second second second by Cheryl any discussion all those in favor seven next a resolution asking for approval of a resolution for
065supplemental pay for certified teachers who've completed additional education um we're very pleased that we have a number of teachers taking advantage of extending their education and and increasing their ability to be great teachers in the classroom so the list of names attached to the resolution asking for have a motion by Pat do I have a second second by mayor Lynn any discussion all those in favor 70 next we'll go down under support staff recommendations I'm asking for the following recommendations to be approved Allison Baker J County munici schal custodian um is uh at termination Randy Carson were're asking that he be approved as a volunteer Elementary third and fourth grade basketball coach Kendrick Greenley be hired as a norer and Elementary custodian for second shift Robert Rush Jenning County M middle school custodian is at
066termin and Aran sen yours as jise county middle school custodian and that takes care of it do I have a motion to accept those as have a motion by Travis do I have a second second by Chelsea any discussion all those in favor 70 next we have um JC EC asking for a pay rate adjustment additional 50 Cent an hour for jcec classified staff that will we've approved for other classified staff have a motion to accept that motion by Chelsea do I have a second second second by Pat any discussion all those in favor 70 next um permission to post asking for permission to post a district permanent um custodial sub position um we're finding that we're needing subs for custodians frequently and um a difficult position to fill and over just overnight basically so
067we'd like to post a permanent supposition that would allow for us to have frequent support and also be a a good training ground for those individuals and hopefully go into permanent full-time positions so do I have a motion um for that permanent um custodial sub position to be posted motion a motion by Cheryl do I have a second second second by Pat any discussion all those in favor 70 um next down under finances we have some donations we're going to take this in two separate groups first group is uh fnam Masonic Lodge $300 to Brush Creek student snacks Zenus Baptist Church $300 value in student snacks to the Brush Creek also Hall of cars $20 to the Hayden Student Assistance perception yoga 3,000 crayons to NV art class Coffee Creek Conservation Club $2,000 to the
068High School academic honors program and the Hope food donations of $100 from The Young American class and $450 from Kanas do I have a motion to accept those donations as R motion by Chelsea have a second by Travis any discussion all those in favor 70 and then the second item second item is another hope food program donation $1,000 from maryn Wick okay do I have a motion to accept that donation a motion by Pearl do I have a second second by Pat any discussion all those in favor and then abstain one abstain 60 next we have a a resolution for approv yes this is the normal resolution with more than two weeks between meetings authorizing the treasure deputy treasure to make payments of claims without board action prior to December 7th 2023 meeting and allow
069the treasure Deputy treasur to make transfers to Appropriations within the major classifications I have a motion to approve that resolution have a motion by Mary Lynn do I have a second second by Chelsea any discussion all those in favor 70 and then down under relations we have a Arkdale School P contract yes I'm asking for approval for a three-year contract for all of our schools um the only change here would be Brush Creek would be joining all the other schools who've already been in with bdale um this will allow us to give some um discounts to our parents and also provide school ID badges for safety reasons and they are also going to um give us a badge maker for new hires at the central office level I have a motion to accept that contract
070motion by Pat do I have a second second second by Cheryl any discussion all those in favor 70 which brings us down to other just like to mention that all of our elementaries are having Veterans Day programs um tomorrow and you're of course invited to attend as our community members and uh thank you to all of our veterans who are with us in the audience and on board even hearing nothing else I'll entertain a motion to adjourn have a motion by Chelsea do I have a second second by Earl all those in favor 70 Earl did you raise your hand thank you s meeting a j