001Good morning. This is the December 18th meeting of the Board of Education of the Livermore Valley Joint Unified School District. It is 9am. As president, the meeting is now called to order. Our meetings are broadcast over Zoom to provide the opportunity for our community to observe in real time. Video recordings of board meetings are posted on our website, typically within 72 hours after each meeting. I was wondering if Ms. Tapia could come up to lead us in our flag salute. I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the republic for which it stands, one nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all. Moving on to three deletions, corrections to the agenda. Superintendent Gibson, are there any changes to the agenda? No, there are not. The only, I
002don't think it was on here though, but for item 7.4, the demographic presentation, Mr. Johnson will join us remotely. Alright, then we'll move into 4.0, employee association reports. Do we have any representatives? If not, then I'll recognize our LEA, Amy Thompson as our president and Tara Letts as the vice president. For CSCA, we have Mamie Kristevich as president and Victoria Storti as the vice president. From SEIU, we have Kirsty Gov. as president. For CMC, Sarah DeGroote representative. And for LMA, Jeremy Wilkins as president. We move on to 5.0, public comments on non-agenda items. Do we have any TAN cards? I don't think so. So we'll move on to 6.0, formal written correspondence to the Board of Education shall be acknowledged if received by the board or in the superintendent's office by 2 p.m. the day
003before the meeting. Formal written correspondence received after the cutoff will generally be acknowledged at the following meeting. Please note our board electronic communications received via the Livermore Valley Joint Unified School District's website by accessing the formal written correspondence to the Board of Education link. With all fields completed and verified, it shall be treated as formal written correspondence. Clerk, is there any correspondence for the board? And if so, please summarize it for us. Yes, thank you, President Drew. And two community members expressed support for prioritizing increased compensation for teachers. One community member raised concern regarding a board member's participation in an event co-sponsored by Turning Point USA. And one community member urged the board to enact restrictions on participation in girls' sports. Thank you. 7.0, discussion action items. Up first, 7.1, we have Altamont Creek Elementary
004School Board with Ms. Andrea Tapia. I was thinking that. Welcome. Thank you for coming. Did I turn this? Okay, perfect. Good morning. Okay. Good morning, Board President Druin, members of the board, Superintendent Dr. Gibson in cabinet. My name is Andrea Tapia, and I am the ever proud principal of Altamont Creek where we are safe, respectful, responsible, and always awesome. So this morning I'm excited to share with you more about Altamont Creek and what makes us awesome. Thank you. Okay. So looking at our demographics page for the last few years we've been hovering right around that 600 mark. Our top three demographics continue to be our Asian, Hispanic, and white population. The percentages haven't much changed. With that being said, we do continue to overall be a very diverse school. We have over 20 languages spoken
005at home. During our annual diversity day celebration we've consistently had 30 or more countries represented so it's been pretty amazing to see. Looking down at our English learner percentage over the last few years, the percentage of English learners has continued to go down and that's greatly attributed to the number of students who've been reclassified over the last couple of years. And then looking at our students with disabilities. It is a big number at over 100 that's over one sixth of our population and that's primarily due to the number of programs that we have on our campus. We have three mild, moderate SDC classes, two therapeutic neurodiverse program classes, and a resource learning center. Looking at our most recent California dashboard data which is from 2425. First want to note the English learner progress. We don't
006have enough English learners to have the state report on progress. Looking at our academic points, English language arts and math, we consistently have been in the green speedometer spot the last couple of years, and our suspension rate had stays consistent at yellow. If you do look what is a little concerning is that our chronic absenteeism is orange last year was yellow it did dip down to orange. So we're closely working with our CWA our child welfare and attendance and our coordination of services team. When looking at the data a little more deeply of the 52 students that missed more than 10% of the school year. Some of them are really chronically absent and that's something we're working on but in looking at over half of those 52 met the criteria by one or two days,
007so if they had attended school one or two days they would not have been considered chronically absent and so we put an alert in our edu climber system so that when a student hits day 10 it alerts me so that I can reach out to that family and help educate them so hopefully they will not get to that 10% mark. And then going to our district scoreboard school success data. You'll like most likely see kind of first that's what I saw when we saw is that for the first time ever we kind of dipped in our cash scores both in ELA, and in math. It was kind of surprising and so that allowed us to reflect on what happened and you'll be expect to see an increase this year we know that we can do
008better you'll see on the next slide. There's a discrepancy between our casp data and our internal data we are performing much higher on our screen or an internal data than what was represented on the casp last year. Looking at our average daily attendance, even though we have a higher rate of chronically absentee students are overall daily average attendance has been increasing over the last couple of years, which has been great to see. So kind of looking at the next page of our scoreboard data you will notice that the two internal data points we made great gains, both looking at our math scores and our first grade reading our first grade continues to make progress and our fourth graders made a big jump and so as we reflected we recognize that we need to look at
009what are some common test taking strategies that we can implement across our sites, so that students can translate that to stronger cash scores. Looking at our scoreboard data specifically for English learners and students with disabilities. I'll point you to our attendance rate continues to grow in both of those areas. Our students with disabilities are attending more which is great considering also looking at that data a good percentage of our students who are chronically absent also happen to be students with disabilities. We have a decrease in the number of students who have two or more major referrals who are both English learners and students with disabilities, so that's very positive to see. And then something to note with looking at our English learner data is with only having a total number of 33 students who are
010English learners, and then only less than half of them being third through fifth graders when one student performs positively or negatively that really impacts our percentage overall. Looking at our suspension rate, we do continue to continue to see a downward trend in the number of students that are being suspended. We attribute that to a really strong tier one PBIS system which I'll speak a little bit to in a little bit along with our peacekeeper program. We also have ongoing your duty training we have bi weekly meetings, really working on the positive relationships and the respect between students and your duties which has really increased the relationships that they've had the positive relationships and decrease the number of overall referrals that we're seeing so far this year. You will notice that the total number of suspension
011so far this year is a little higher. We've had four students who had a really hard time transitioning to the school year, and within our therapeutic neuro diverse program some of those students have progressive discipline plans, which at a certain point means suspension. So, that meant that they may have had a few more suspensions than we would hope, but given that we haven't had any suspension since October 30, I do feel like students are settling in, and really getting into the routine which is great to see. So moving to our celebrations and programs, as mentioned previously we have a really strong PBIS system at our school for the third year we've applied and received gold implementation. Our tier one foundational is super solid we have clear expectations we have meet assemblies every single week that
012really highlight what's working well with our expectations what are things that we can work on. It's consistently reviewed by all of our staff our tier one team makes fun little games to keep all of our staff not just certificated but classified talking with students about our expectations, which then goes along with our acknowledgement and reward system. Those wildcat bucks those kids love those bucks. And so we're really focusing on our tier two interventions within our coordination of services team and within our PLCs, so that we can have students continue to grow academically behaviorally and social emotionally. Looking at our next point our average daily attendance as mentioned is slowly but surely consistently going up. I'm really excited this year is our first year having the district social worker on our campus weekly, along with our
013wellness center being open. And so I definitely am excited to see how that supports attendance within our campus. And then our peacekeeper program this is something that's our fourth year now. These are third through fifth grade students who are nominated by their peers, they're trained in conflict resolution we also added having them facilitate games at recess, helping students to learn how to play specific recess games, the wildcat way so that just because we're playing flag football, what does that look like at school versus out outside of school. So then moving to our priorities our first one is our professional learning communities. I will note you'll notice the discrepancy between our caps data and our internal data. And so we want to continue closely monitoring our internal data, and then seeing how we can translate that
014to our casp data this year. And so our tier two targeted interventions are really being closely monitored through our professional learning communities at the professional level. And then our cost teams are following up, we have specific dates that we're checking in with different students to make sure that no one's falling through the cracks to improve our casp scores, starting next month actually our third through fifth grade teams were kind of having a mini PLC I guess you could say where we're really diving into what are some English language arts and math test taking strategies that we can implement because a lot of our students in the younger grades take paper assessments and then translating that to online tests or making little translation mistakes when they're typing it in from what they did on paper versus
015the computer. We really want to identify how we can support that. And then our second priority is our math focus. Again, only 62% of our third through fifth graders were proficient, but almost 87% are low risk on our screeners, and even looking at our most recent data. I know we just moved to our LBJ USD math screener. Again, our students are performing a lot higher with between our try to is 89% low risk 83% low risk 75% low risk at the different grades so we're seeing high rates of success within our internal data and so how do we translate that to our casp data. I do want to shout out our fourth grade team. They were the one grade level last year that went through the math protocol interventions that our curriculum department supported and
016they had an over 25% improvement on our scoreboard data, and had a 4% increase actually within our casp data looking at them, our cohort data specifically with fourth grade. So I'm super excited that both our third and fifth grade teams are participating that in that this year, and I've been helping to support them during our Wednesday collaborations and attending these trainings, so that we can all be on the same page. Similarly, or similarly, in addition, our as a site we're doing a learning math learning progression. And so we were meeting four times this year we've met twice already. So far K to has met in one room and three five has met in another and we're really specifically looking at fractions. What is fractions look like in kindergarten and fifth grade and how can we
017kind of have a cohesive thread between all of the grade levels. And so, next, early February when we meet again we're actually going to meet all together to maybe look at a fourth grade Mars task and then how can we use that language say in a kindergarten math talk. And so, I'm really interested to see how that helps translate again into our scores but also trying to stay with that common thread and common language within our site. So that is me any questions or discussions. No blue cards. So, questions from the board morning. I just want to say great job on the substantial improvements your students displayed in the fourth grade, perfect math proficiency in the first grade easy CVM reading outcomes, as well as the California gold implementation award. I think it's awesome that
018almost 90% of your students are considered lower risk for the easy CVM reading. And I really like to see how you're implementing the PLC process at your school site. I just had a quick question. What are you doing I know you hit on how you have a daily alert system for your attendance. What are you doing that you're consistently improving on your attendance over the last three years. What strategies have we been doing at school. So we do have those alerts that are both specific to attendance and then there's also a combination of maybe referrals and some academic data that also alerts us within our weekly assemblies. Text me the highest what class had the highest percent the week before. And so it's just a quick shout out last week Mrs beggars class was all
019here stand up and it takes less than a minute and they're super excited to stand up and have everyone clap for them so that's been one thing. A few times last year, we just randomly gave out a wildcat buck if you were on time, and they're like, what, you know, so little tiny things within my principal coffees and in our ELAC meeting. We've been doing just a lot of discussions about attendance and the importance of attendance because we do have a high population of students that do independent study contracts I would say at our site. And so, helping to educate families like does that I get sometimes that has to happen but are there other going to Disneyland where maybe that could be at a different time of the year. And just trying to have
020those conversations with families. That's good. Thank you for explaining that. Yeah. Mr happy Thank you for this great presentation. I love your goals. They're pretty, you know, they're, they'll take you there. How do you communicate that with your team. Okay, I'm going to the school board meeting, I'm going to be talking about this, are you guys good because we're going to do this. Yeah, so I mean, even though I'm sharing this in December this was something that was communicated in August right as part of our kickoff our ilt our instructional leadership team is really strong this year. And they've really been leading a lot of the work which has been helpful. And so I did like share this with my ilt just be like hey am I sharing everything that we're doing so I want
021to make sure I'm accurately representing our site. But our, what's fortunate is that the PLC work is already sort of embedded for the most part it's just little tweaks that we're working on. We've had a few different grade level makeups to kind of shift with a few new teachers a few new retirees and so it's really been great to see some of our more veteran teachers stepping up and supporting our newer teachers and teaching them this work. And so at the beginning of the year, as part of our professional development that's when we kind of go over the goals and then we're continually working on them within our Wednesday collaborations and then our ilt is the group that's really kind of progress monitoring I would say throughout the year. That's really cool. Yeah, I really
022like that that's holding people's feet to the fire in a really really good way. You talked about chronic absenteeism and you shared the hard data but what is the anecdotal, I don't know even I don't think you can call it evidence but what's the anecdotal behind the scenes stuff that you guys talk about in the hallways like you know, seeing this more and more I'm, I'm noticing this about the culture and you know amongst our parents, what do you, what are you noticing. You know I think there's a been a shift with, I wouldn't necessarily say the importance of school but just, oh, you know, this works for my work schedule so I'm going to do this kind of I'm going to go on this sort of vacation. And then just the communication with parents
023recently we had a few families, their flight plans change but they didn't communicate that to us our teachers got their independent studies, ready for two weeks and now suddenly, they're not going. So it's just that I would say more one on one communication, of course I put it in my newsletter but you know some people don't always read the newsletter. So, it's just being out there I think what's nice about having our weekly assembly is we have a lot of families who attend. And so either before right after you can kind of check in with different people are PTA this year. And last year has been really positive about bringing in new families and so it's just kind of educating through other avenues right because our PTA then those parents are talking to other parents
024and like right now we're just seeing a lot more tardies which doesn't necessarily impact the David daily average attendance but is disruptive to students start of the day, especially if, let's say that they thrive on routines. Right. And so if they're consistently tardy that doesn't help have a great rest of the day and so that's going into January that's my kind of focus is how can we work on the tardies like I had a parent say oh well she was tired and so she slept in. Okay, well let's get an alarm, then let's wake her up. We can do this like I get if there was an extenuating circumstance but just showing them like if we're expected to be at work at a certain time as adults students are expected to be at school at
025a certain time as well. And how do we share that expectation. Probably, yeah. Yeah, I don't know if that answered the question. I just want to circle back to the you give out awards for a class that's there all the time but you know there's some classes some teachers who will not ever be called out because there's a their circumstances in the class you know Joe will never be here on time because of whatever is going on there so can is it also going to be discouraging for some classes to never be called out. I've not noticed that because I would say so far at least last year in this year it's a variety of grades I wouldn't always say every single class gets called. Oh I see I see I would say even our
026like I'm thinking our therapeutic neuro diverse program they have eight students right so like if one's gone for a day or two that's a big percentage but they've been recognized once or twice. And there's other ways that we recognize classes so in some way, they're absolutely see your professionals you know what you're doing. That's awesome. Thank you so much. Those are the questions I had. Thank you. Good morning. How you doing. Good. And yourself. Good. All right. A quick question, when we express the stuff on the student achievement like proficiency in math and English language arts. We break out like some of the sped and socio economically the SCD, we break that out separately but when we express the achievement numbers or the where we're at numbers. Is that an aggregate inclusive of our challenges,
027or is it Gen Ed kids broke out separately. No, like the numbers that were displayed are for all of our third through fifth grade students, and then when we break out proficiency for students with disabilities that's WDS or this. The SCD. Those are separate. And so what I wonder, because your numbers on your estimate is pretty close to the district, it's 16.8 so we're about 16 in the district. What I wonder is, can we get and I guess there's more question for the district. Can we see the numbers. When we see rather than an aggregate, but also show that but also break out, because I think sometimes if we have challenges sometimes you can overcome and I think it's almost unfair to try to overcome them. You know if our kids with. In your case,
028your English language learners are very low so it's very hard to discern anything. But with your SWD or sped your numbers are fairly high at 16.8 there's going to have some unique challenges there. Maybe with attendance, maybe with math achievement, but when they're included in our aggregate numbers. Sometimes we, you know I want to make sure that we're not putting resources where they're not needed maybe we're better off to put the resources on the sped side than as opposed to taking every gen ed teacher and saying, you need to try these strategies because it's going to push your numbers down. It's one of the things that in Livermore are aggregate numbers for a district are somewhat lower in achievement, because we have greater challenges than some of our surrounding districts. Sometimes it's kids aren't eating
029so they don't come to school, but that may not affect all the gen ed kids but it might affect gen ed kids that are in a socioeconomically depressed status. And so what I'm, what I'm wondering is, can we see those sometimes maybe it's a question Mr Hart or the district, because you know it's just, we used to have this conversation over attendance, where we're driving that edge and you can get to 95 96 and you can't just, you can't get any better than that. And so why put resources towards something you're going to achieve very little at. So I think what I'm hearing so aggregate general education. Yeah, it's we're breaking out our challenges, but we're not breaking out the gen ed. And to see that as a separate category to show it. Extrapolated I
030guess from the aggregate. All right, thank you. I appreciate the context. I think that's, you know, talking in some of them you have the one, one of three students and then also talking about the therapeutic neuro divergent classes and how that's kind of shaping the overall numbers kind of what Trustee Buena was saying that if you just look at the aggregate that doesn't tell the whole story, so I think I appreciate both in some of the charts, explaining the numbers and then also you just kind of explain that context. And so, I'm recently familiar with but I'd love to hear a little bit more about the therapeutic neuro divergent courses. What are some of the successes and opportunities that having that programming at your school affords and perhaps what are some of the challenges or
031ways in which you're navigating providing that support. Sure, this is our third year having the program at our site. The program itself has two levels. There's our level one, which is our more intensive. This year the students are in a self contained classroom. And then we also have our level two program, which these students are, for the most part mainstream within the general education class they are on a gendered roster with varying levels of para support. I would say overall, most of these students academically are doing pretty well it's the behavior that is impeding their ability to be within the general education class full time. We're super excited that we are level one and level two program is very fluid so we have students in level one, really pushing more toward the level two status
032I guess you could say as they're showing progress going into the general education class more requiring less para support because they don't necessarily have some of them have one to one pairs but most of them require pairs for a majority of the day I would say where our level two students. If they're maybe having a hard few months they can kind of then travel back into level one for a little bit if needed and it's very fluid which I think I well I really appreciate the level of support we do have a full time behaviorist on our site. So that helps when we have some, maybe a student is dysregulated and needs a little bit of support but they are also able and she does also oversee the students that have behavior services within the
033other programs on our campus too. And so she is able to support everyone along with the rbt that's assigned to the program specifically who helps oversee both the level one and level two. Wonderful. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Up next, 7.2 from coach elementary school we have Miss Jennifer Burkholder. Good morning and welcome. Good morning. Good morning Board President drew in numbers of the board Superintendent Gibson members of cabinet. I'm Jen Burkholder this is my second year as the proud principal of crochet elementary. I am very excited to present the 2526 school board presentation, and I just have to take a moment to say how proud I am of the staff at crochet. They have shown up every day and given 100% of themselves to our students given everything they have had thrown at
034them the last two years, and we have built a very strong culture of positivity and resilience and it's something I'm super proud of. So, once we get the presentation going. There we go. Almost. Okay. So at crochet we currently. Well, as of this report we have 587 students this changes daily especially with our preschool as students turn three, this number changes constantly. We have 42% of our students are white 33% Hispanic 21% Asian 3% African American and unless when 1% are Pacific Islander and American Indian. 2% of our students are English learners, and 29% of our students have disabilities. That is because of the large number of programs that we have the honor of providing at crochet elementary. We have five preschool programs we have two moderate programs to ESM programs and three programs that
035are our learning center. We have 21% of our students that are a CD. When we look at the California dashboard again we don't have the numbers to provide our English learner progress here, and along with many in the district, our chronic absenteeism is an area of concern. We've had a lot of fun actually tackling this problem this year we've created some PBIS teams within our campus and created some fun competition on campus with behavior as well as attendance and so every month teams are afforded points for best attendance as well as behavior and spirit points, and then once a trimester. Those teams there's one team per grade level and then we get to celebrate with those who have earned the most points so it's been a lot of fun on campus. Our suspension rates are
036in blue so far this year we have zero suspension so I'm hoping that sticks for the remainder of the year, and then we'll delve into the remainder of this data as we go on. Our math data is down slightly in ELA at 2% our math data held at 0 well at 55% we didn't have a change there. And even though our chronic absenteeism is down, we are slightly up for ADA at an increase of point to 8%. And oddly there was some technical glitch, even though we had all of our teachers do our core SEL we have no data to present so hopefully there'll be something there next year, I don't know. We had a 20% change for our English learners progressing one LPAC level from last year which is amazing we actually have 52%
037of our students who are English learners progressing on our LPAC, which is a huge positive for our school site that I'm proud of. We had a slight dip for our students with two or more major referrals, and our fourth grade students did have a dip on unit three. We are seeing an increase already this year we're up to 54%. We've already we've already been working hard towards that our fourth grade team has been meeting to discuss because they actually went down in Casper and ELA this year our third and fifth grade team went up so they really wanted to tackle and take a really deep dive on why their numbers went down so we've taken a hard look at their data. In November, we met and we've been really looking at their unit tests and
038looking at each number and so their PLC time is spent doing that unit analysis and then making their, teams, and their intervention teams around specific skill deficits that are really really attainable and teaching those students specific skills rather than just high medium low so that they can really really tackle these issues. Our first grade reading is almost at 83% are low risk on the easy CBM. All right, we are Casper ELA. This slide in general last year was very concerning for me when looking at our English learners and our students with disabilities. And honestly, when I looked at our sips, it was kind of a regurgitation of the same goals year after year after year and so I tossed everything with all new goals that specifically focused on these two groups and so if you
039look at my goals that the sole focus is on these two areas. There are some huge areas of celebration again when you look at our students progressing on the LPAC both our students with disabilities and our English learners. There's great progress there, as well as our first graders progressing on the easy CBM. But we certainly have a lot of areas of growth, so we were definitely looking as a school on how we can make that progress, and there's a lot of things and we'll get to that at the end of the slide on how we're going to tackle that as a school. Again, we talked about suspension we are at zero suspension rate this year, I attribute that to our PBIS and the hard work we're doing there as a school, and I'm hoping that
040sticks. So celebrations again we're at gold, we are working towards platinum this year. One thing that we've started this year is our English learner homework club. We have 44 students that are English learners at our site, eight of those are in our moderate or yes and program. So that leaves 36 that are K through fifth grade or TK through fifth grade. We targeted then we called every single one of them on the phone. First through fifth grade and invited them to our English learner homework club, and we have 17 of them signed up who are coming every Wednesday now, meeting with an instructional assistant to work on their homework. So we're really really excited. They're really excited they were the sense of community and pride there to see, you know, how you speak Spanish to
041they didn't they didn't know that I spoke Spanish and so they were really excited, and to get that support is amazing. One of the things that we did last year was myself our librarian and our science teachers work together to do the practice LPAC with the students who were on the cusp of moving from one LPAC level to the next, and those were the students who progressed and so we really saw a huge change in that So this year, I talked with them and they were all willing and to get trained on the LPAC and so we're going to be doing the interim LPAC with all of our students and doing LPAC with them this year because we saw Maryland had tremendous results from that and so we're really excited to see if that's going
042to make a huge difference this year as well. In addition, our special education team has been working so so hard with our Tosa's to make sure that we have research based curriculum in place for all of our students. One thing I realized last year when I did a deep dive into special education is we have our UA time four times a week 40 minutes a day. And when in our resource kids get that same amount of time, but then when they go went into the resource program. That was the same number of minutes that they were receiving, but then they have goals for math writing and so their instruction was the same as what our tier two kids were getting so we're really trying to increase the amount of supports that our special education students
043are receiving. And so we're seeing that the fruits of that labor as well. We're also trying to make sure that on this kind of goes into this next slide with our priority. That our resource teachers are attending our PLC trainings that they're attending all the trainings that are gen ed teachers are going through so that they are getting the same amount of rigor for our students. With reading intervention, our PDs, our paras are also getting wonderful trainings from our special education department and so we're really really trying to make sure that there's an alignment with everybody. Right now 21% of our students with special needs are at or above standard and ELA and in math, and I really want to push that number up at least 10%. And then for our emergent bilinguals. This year
044we were 0% on the ELA, and that's, that's not acceptable at all we've got to improve that 12% we're at or above standard on math, so we have to do better. And so again our math homework club. We've got to maximize the work with Lexia English, and then working on those IB assessments on LPAC and getting our crochet staff to to administer those assessments. So, I probably talked way too fast. Any questions. Thank you. There's no blue cards, so we'll open them to the board. Thank you for the presentation. Really good stuff. Some, some things that I would love to know if you know anything about the the chronic. When did you get would you get these numbers, when do you see the numbers, when you saw when you, you get to, you know, because
045we have to wait for all the schools to come in throughout the year. We look at them constantly. Right. Yeah. So have you already started to address the definitely have you have you been able to identify what that, you know, what do they look like now for instance, so we we get numbers. Every, well, every week we get numbers on who is chronically absent, we get numbers once a month on what our absenteeism rates are. So we're in we work with our CWA. Matt Hart does a great job of setting up these alerts that go out to us so as soon as students hit a certain number a certain threshold. We're contacting parents to find out what's going on. And then pushing back, kind of like tapio and some of the other schools, the independent
046studies are extraordinary. We just school does not seem to be a priority the vacations and whatnot, since coven seem to be school seems to be optional. They can do the work. So trying to push back and really ask parents like hey can you do the these vacations at another time because it's not just about the work it's all those daily interactions it's you know all the things you cannot recreate just with a homework packet so I'm stressing that at our back to school nights I'm having teachers put that in their slides when they're they're talking to parents and when we get those requests just really trying to educate parents on it's it's not just about the homework packet that they're getting it's about so much more. So what are you seeing so far is, I'm
047sure I'm thinking that the numbers are ticking up because you you saw it you saw that number like we got to address that. And you come up with some strategies and so what are you seeing so far. So far, I mean, it's worth the holidays, and so we're seeing a lot of families going abroad right now so I mean it's still too early to tell. I don't have the numbers compared to last year at this time, I can certainly get those for you though. I, I'm sure it's going to be better. Just, I'm hoping just to encourage yeah I'm hoping that these things work and then you get to see the fruit of your, of your work. But what have you found out is you were digging around that 14% drop in the fourth grade
048math scores. And then, as you kept going on with the rest of the presentation. How much of the EL numbers that 40% of them are below in fourth grade how much is, is that maybe the sole driver of that 14% drop, or is it a major driver since it's an aggregate. And, yeah, what do you, what do you know about that. So yes, yes, I think a lot of that was the sole driver. But again, so we only had five students and fourth grade that were EL. So when you have to that aren't doing like that's 40% so it looks like an extraordinary number. It didn't pull down the entire score for all of fourth grade. Yeah, but it was really interesting. Fourth grade took it really hard and they really really owned it and
049they, they asked Matt to come out hey can we really look at this and so in October for that PD day he came out and did his wonderful pivot tables. Thank you, Matt. And we looked at it and he said okay what are your theories and behavior. Okay, let's look at it. Here's the students who really, you know, dropped, and who had two or more, you know, office referrals, none who had okay what's your next theory chronic absenteeism. None. Okay, what's your next thought special ed, none. And so it really took that away and it truly was skills that weren't taught for those kids and so then that became something that we can tackle right so that's why we're now looking at every unit analysis and looking at those specific skills because rather than it
050being this, oh my gosh, our numbers are so low, how do we tackle that when you look at okay this specific skill wasn't taught we can do that we can teach skills, and so now it feels like something much more manageable. And so we're doing that and then we're reassessing every couple of weeks, where kids are at so they're really hopeful I'm really hopeful. And we're meeting regularly to look at that data and they've only been through one PLC cycle for math so we've taken ownership over it and we're really excited to see where we go next year. That's really cool. And I love your homework club. Did you were those students self identified did you call them did you say call them I think every single one of them. Yeah, that's so cool. Yeah.
051Yeah. Love that. It's, it's nice having low numbers because we know every student by, you know, by name and who they are. And so, you know, to be able to first we emailed, and we got one response via email and so then we picked up the phone and called everyone and the parents were really excited. So, yeah, and then we also have a math homework club, which are see what tutors come out and so we have two things going at once, and that what we've invited third through fifth grade families to come out and so we have think 12 students and that one that everyone's invited to that, regardless of disability or English language or whatnot so well tell your team that we're super impressed and, you know, we don't want to just talk about
052the things that are not going well there's some really really great things happening they're doing amazing things are hard and their resiliency, and is, yeah, it's something to. Yeah, I'm in awe of with them. Yeah, that's great. Thank you so much. Thank you for your point. Thank you. Thanks for the presentation. I do love the homework club that you guys put together. Thank you. And I think, particularly it's the focused nature of it, and how and the collaboration piece, and the identification of the kids minutes from someone whose family came here and didn't speak English and understanding those challenges. With the piece you said where kids come in, oh you, you don't speaking or you speak that collaboration piece putting people together that's particularly beneficial, and so I really appreciate that on a collaboration thing.
053I wonder just on the two back to back presentations, start contrast just on that unit for thing. And is it something that actually wasn't touching I wonder how much collaboration is going on above the site level where that's nearly a 40% swing on the exact same category in a very like school, although your students with disabilities are much higher on nearly double the district average. Definitely. They, I actually I love the, the work that the district's doing with that because we do we get the whole fourth grade across the district together and so they do get to work and collaborate. And that's actually one of the things that I love is them being able to work with other teams and ask those questions like, hey, what did, what did you guys do differently on this
054test because those are important questions to ask. And I love that they have time to do more of that, because it's important. What in terms of the prep because it sounded like with the prior presentation there was some prep that was done in anticipation of kind of focusing on that. And so in the run up just so that each year it's not over over here. Okay, we're trying to chase it. But in the prep was the prep relatively the same, because I mean that's a big swing. I mean it's almost 40% difference. It is a big swing. Yeah, it is a big swing. And again, this is our school's first year with fourth grade for the PLC so they're, they're definitely trying to figure out how to do all of this. They were pretty solid
055in their reading intervention and so now they're, they're trying to figure out the math portion of how do we look at the data, how do we analyze data. And before their UA groups were divided into the okay you take high, I'll take medium you take low and now really hyper focusing on skills like okay this group we missed this question on this unit test let's focus on the skill deficit. And making it much more focused so that we can really tackle the issues. So and this year we've already jumped up 3% on on these scores so yeah. And then just a final thing, would it at the site level do you guys see I mentioned on the earlier presentation. The gen ed stats relative to each one of these categories with the students with just
056with the SWDs extrapolated from it. Do you see that data, we can, and I've done that again like we did that with this fourth grade group to try to figure out okay is this an issue with students with disabilities is this a gen ed issue. In this case with fourth grade that was not necessarily the issue it was across the board an issue of a skill deficit that wasn't taught in in this particular unit assessment. Right and that's actually correctable and it's put your finger right on it. Yeah, I like that process. It just like, I just think it might be helpful for maybe us but if you guys are already able to see it. That means it's available. I appreciate it. Thanks. Welcome. Trustee Kaplan us. Good morning. Good morning. I just wanted to
057congratulate you guys on the increase in your students progress of the one LPAC level 20% is pretty significant. Thank you. Also great job and maintaining your PBIS gold award. Thank you. I really liked that you guys have your homework club. And how you guys are modeling the same preparation for the LPAC testing as Maryland and other school sites and getting the results that you guys are putting in for the work. I went to your spelling bee last year, and I asked some of the top competitors. How did you guys do so well what's your secret how did you prepare, and they shared that they studied together. So I like that you guys are fostering valuable study habits at your guys school and the collaboration. It's all really good just to get the students to work
058together. I like that you prioritized your special needs and English winner populations as a whole, and working closely with your toes says, and collaborating with the gen ed teachers. I think it's great that you're implementing them into the PLC trainings as well as your parents in the PD think that's really valuable. I think this is positive support that you're providing at your school site and I think it's only going to benefit your students and your stuff so thank you. Thank you. I just had a clarifying question when you were talking about the special programming I think you said there was, you had said five preschool to to mild mod and then you said I think, yes. And so we have to moderate. So we have a TKK moderate a one to moderate, then we have
059a TKK yes and and a one to yes and and then three learning centers, what is yes and stand for our mod sphere. And then, I just wanted to comment on. How do I articulate it's not staying with the status quo, and you can't just keep doing the same action so I appreciate I think a good indicator of a strong leader is seeing things, not working and not not just going along with it and hoping that it's I think creative solutions are the way that we address the nuance brought nuance and specific problems that we're seeing in our school or challenges I shouldn't say problems. And then, kind of building from several of the comments. I know I think of myself as like a fourth grade students, and my teacher did something that kind of
060reached out and asked me to do something. And I think that that reaching out to those students that kind of personal touch is really big and can have a deep impact on them that the school cares. And, you know, there may be lots of other familial factors or other other things that may prohibit them from coming, but I think when we reach out and say I see you. We want to support you I think that that means a lot so I appreciate that. And thank you for your presentation today. Thank you so much. Next, we'll be hearing from livermore adult education and this Sarah walkie. Good morning and welcome. Excuse me. Thank you. Good morning, President Bruin. Excuse me, Bruin I'm not a brew and I'm a go bears but President drew in members of
061the board. Dr. Gibson and members of the cabinet in my colleagues esteemed colleagues. My name is Sarah walk, and I am the proud principal of livermore adult education. And I am very excited to be here and let you know what's going on. On almond Avenue. Oh, I have the clicker, I have control. The graphics are pretty stable. This is the breakdown that we've had for several years there is a difference in that our data that is collected through the state has changed this year. Latino Hispanic Latino has been added back into the racial description rather than being separated out as a second category of ethnicity. So, much of our data is, we have a high level of students who return. So, in the past they may have identified themselves as, you know, chosen their racial
062identification, and then identified themselves as Hispanic or Latino, and the default on a state level has been to mark anyone who was Hispanic Latino as white, they just needed to have some sort of a data transfer. And that's what they did. So we are in the process of doing one of our biannual data audits to give our students the opportunity to redefine their racial status, as we record it in in our database that we share with that goes to the state, but the numbers are pretty stable. Our gender breakdown remains the same, very close to last year, and previous years I've been in adult ed for since 1999 and we always, excuse me. We always serve more women than we do men for a variety of reasons and then our age breakdown is also very
063similar to what we've had in the past. Our instructional program percentages, again, nothing really has changed the majority of the students that we serve our English language learners. And then we provide other services, citizenship preparation, childcare, high school diploma, GED preparation, and computer literacy, and our integrated education and training which is helping our students prepare for careers in early childhood education, specifically non native speakers of English to prepare for careers in early childhood education. This year the only virtual opportunity hybrid opportunity that we have is our citizenship preparation class is, it's the preparation for the citizenship test. We have struggled in the past to find qualified staff who are interested in willing to offer an online class but we always have a group a handful of students who would like to attend online for a
064variety of reasons. And we will continue to investigate that and provide opportunities to continue to search for staff, excuse me. Apparently I was talking too much in my sleep last night so I have a sore throat. We are looking for we are always looking for staff who are qualified to and interested in teaching, virtually, and we'll continue hopefully next year we'll be able to add a virtual class back to our catalog. We don't take the cast for students don't take the cast and we don't have those types of status but these are the things that we report to the state that every adult education program in the state of California reports to the state. First of all, who is a pre tester how many people came registered for our classes, and actually showed up to
065take a pre test we do offer a standardized test that is approved by the California Department of Education and the US Department of Education is required by our grantors. The next category is how many of those people came took a registered took pre test showed up to classes and attended for 12 or more hours of attendance when they do that they become an attendee. The next level is per sisters, how many of those attendees attend 40 or more hours of instruction and complete a post test. And from our per sisters we look for our level completers how many of those per sisters took the post test and completed a level and advanced in their educational journey in their gains. The federal grant then offers us provides us with payment points so for each student who
066completes a level who achieves all of these steps and completes thank you so much completes a level. We then earn a payment point, and our federal dollars are directly aligned to our payment points, our federal grant is a pay for performance grant. So the payment points we earn this year will reflect our federal funding two years in the future. So, these are the benchmarks that correspond to each of those levels I have included our preliminary data from 2526 this data here pre dates, our first round of post testing. So we don't, there's a lot of data that's missing because it just did not exist at the time of this report. We need to be on track again to perform as we have in the past. And we have continually over the last five, six years
067increased our performance levels our performance gains, and the number of students who achieve that per sister and level status. So post testing level completer, we did our post testing last week. Our preliminary indication is that again that we are on target to achieve the same levels of level gains as we did last year. Unfortunately represented here, because this predates that per sister rate, the state of California after 23 stopped providing the data of their average, the average per sister across the state, but we have continually since 2021 had a higher level of persistence than our colleagues. And again our payment points across time have we saw a big dip the year. Post COVID the 2122 when we were half virtual and then half in person, and we have been on a positive trajectory since then.
068This year our area of focus is really one of our areas of focus because community building. There's a saying in adult education that your students vote with their feet. They are not required to be there. If they are not getting their needs met, educationally, emotionally, socially, then they're not going to come to your classes. So we believe that in addition to offering high quality instruction, creating a sense of positive community is one of the greatest ways that we can ensure to increase our persistence. And one of the things, one of the goals that we've been working on over the last couple years is developing our performance, our, excuse me, our public relations campaign and strategy. And so we work together as a team and our tagline, not necessarily our motto, but our tagline is that
069LAE is more than a school, we're a community. And we are actively working to develop that sense of community. We are also this year focusing on family literacy development. One of our adult ed ESL teachers is by trade an elementary school, middle school teacher who has also taught at the community college level, who has her master's degree in reading remediation. And she has taken on the role of reaching out to our parents and working with the parents who may be encountering struggles with their children. Excuse me. How do often we find the, our adult students who are also parents, the biggest challenge, challenges are about misunderstandings and miscommunications. So by having someone like our teacher Katie, who is very well trusted and known and, and liked by our students there as an opportunity to provide
070sort of a translation between the school and the adult ed staff and what we know has been very fruitful. So we're working currently now with East Avenue with one of their parents who they're having troubles. She does not want to sign an IEP, because she feels like she was, it was misrepresented, and she speaks her first language is Farsi. And we've been working with her to sort of be her personal advocate to help her understand what is going on, and what the process is, and why the school thinks it would be in their best interest if she signed that IEP. So we are very pleased that Katie's able to take on that role this year. So our highlights this year so we've been expanding our family literacy services we had a family literacy night, a
071pajama party. I'll see a picture here in a minute was great fun. Our teachers are working to do a self study, the effectiveness of their instruction. What are the things that we're doing in our classes that are showing results. And we continue to expand pathways for employment pathways to employment for our students. I've had some conversations with Dr. Bonduras about how adult ed can support human resources, take our students and human resource work together to help some of our students enter the pathway to employment here in our district. And that is a constant struggle for our students that the application is big and daunting and there's a lot of things that you have to do to apply for any job in the United States so we feel that this is an opportunity for us to
072provide, not only a pathway to employment but it's training it's what we do we're helping them learn how to function within our community. And here is our pajama party. We had about 15 families participate. It was great fun. And I would like to point out over there. Our executive assistant Kat Frizzle, who is an ultimate parent who is actually a her name is Frizzle not pronounced Frizzle like Miss Frizzle from the magic school bus but she does have bright red hair. So she has made her own school bus and so she came and made an appearance as Miss Frizzle and in red magic school bus to our families it was great fun. So we are hoping to our team is planning the next event. But I haven't heard the details yet. So, thank you. I'm
073very honored to be part of adult education it is my heart and my passion and I have. And I'm very grateful to have this opportunity. So thank you very much. Thank you. We don't have any blue cards, so I will turn it over to trust you know any comments, questions. Appreciate your presentation. I love your program over there. I visited early on. I think you've done remarkable work over there. And I'd ask is in light of some of the things that might be happening on a broader scale, you know, nationally. Does it has it affected you and if so, or in any way, is there things that the district do to further support your goals. Thank you for asking. Dr. Gibson has been very proactive and very clear about protocols within our district, if there
074were a situation of crisis if someone were to come on our campus and demand to see students. And our staff has been trained and they know what is what we're supposed to do and then for our staff members that's the most important things they know what they're supposed to do. And they know that we have the support of the district office, should we ever have an unfortunate situation arise, we have not gratefully. Our, our population that you know we don't, we kind of, we are a don't ask don't tell we don't know what the immigration status is of any of our students we don't ask is not required, and we, they are not required to give us a statement to participate in our program and that is the federal and the state law. We have
075not seen a large impact on our program I'm happy to say we did have we did see an impact. I forget the date there was a date notified that the National Guard had landed in Alameda at the Naval Base the former Naval Base in Alameda, and was going to take action in the Bay Area that quickly faded in within two days, they left. During those few days our attendance was very minimal, we did see a decline in attendance of our students on those days, but it picked up very quickly after they left. Thank you. Thank you for your presentation. I personally know students that have gone through your program and are so grateful for everything that you guys have provided, and I'm grateful to for just opportunity for adults to have education and all the
076services that you guys provide. I don't really have any questions but I'm just thankful to learn more about your program. Thank you. Miss walkie thank you for your presentation. This is not really maybe a question for you but can you go back real quick to the, to the first part of your presentation we said that anybody with Latino background was designated as white. By whom. So the our data, we submit our data through a company that is that is contracted by the state of California adult education is called causes, and the causes then submits our data to the federal government. And we to two years ago, because of course, implementation implementation takes time so two years ago, the federal agency that collects the demographic data for adult students decided to not have a separate category
077for Hispanic Latino. So we had race. And then we had ethnicity, and the only thing in ethnicity is was, are you Hispanic or Latino. And so it was always a question for our students well when we say identify your race. They, many of them were confused. You know they're like I'm Latino and we would give I would always give the example of there are many people from the Dominican Republic, who would identify as black, but also Hispanic and Latino. So, they made a choice for what their race was and then they identified themselves as Hispanic or Latino. At some point, the federal government merged those two. So now on the official list that we use to collect our data to report to the state which is reported to the federal government. Hispanic Latino is now
078included in that list of races. In the data transfer to the best of my understanding in the data transfer process, the folks who were previously identified ethnically as Hispanic or Latino. Their identity was their racial identity was transferred was changed to white. When they merged those data that data. So if you were to walk into any one of our classrooms, and to sort of survey the population you would not necessarily come to the assumption that 75% of the students that we serve are white. Many of our students who identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino for many years did not know what to put under the racial identification category. So the conversation was always very strange and the data was always off. So now we're in a transition. So with the opportunity to give our students
079the chance to re identify so here's the new list. So and they try to always parallel what's on the census data so they work to parallel what's on the census data. And we're hoping to be able to have it all cleaned up so that our demographic data would more accurately represent the student population that we serve. The principal walking did a really good job because this is a, it's confusing. Distinguished between race and ethnicity. So, the, I might get some of the words here wrong but I'll take a chance so for race there's like, I think it's like eight federally recognized, and that's different than ethnicity right so for example, one of the federal races listed is Asian but Asian is subdivided between, you know, Chinese Japanese Indian there's a whole subcontinent there right of
080different ethnic breakdowns. The way that for a long time Hispanic was included in white. Right. But that of course is not useful at all so so when you're talking about race, and this would happen in our own SIS at times, a student whose ethnicity was Hispanic, their federal race would And obviously that's not helpful so that has shifted over time and the changing and the making sure that ethnicity is included in that race breakdown for the purposes of like clarity within, you know, America and California. There were problems with shifting that over and that probably resulted in the problem that principal walkie was describing. So there's a different questionnaire, so to speak, compared to coaching ultimate versus what you get to use. And that's why you have different data or. And then you came out
081to being about 70% of the white people are actually the, it says that 75% of our student population is white. And out of that 75% 60% or 70% are. It's not necessarily clear because some of our students may have identified as black and Hispanic, or, you know, Asian and Hispanic you know there's lots of folks who immigrated from China and Japan they immigrated to South America after World War Two so we have Asian Hispanic and black Hispanic and white Hispanic and indigenous Hispanic. And so, but most of the people that I've spoken to that I've worked with since you know 1999 identify themselves as Latino, not necessarily black or white or Asian. Most of them are multiple. If you go back racially most of them are multiracial. But because the data. So we're just in
082a situation where the data that we've been requested to to collect has been changed. So it not what our what our numbers show is a misrepresentation of what is actually happening in our classroom so it's our goal this year to give our students the opportunity to make their own declaration of their racial identity, so that we can have a better representation of the people who who attend our classes. That's super helpful as a as the white parent of a of a Latino student. I don't really care that much, but she sure does. It's very important to her as a so I'm glad that you're trying to figure this out. Are these live numbers because you you mentioned at some point you like, I know that we're at, you know, enrollment right now is 300 but
083it looks like we're on track. Because I'm with trust you bueno I'm not sure if if you know if there is an impact because of current immigration policy or regulations that will impact that the demographic data and the distribution among programs in our school that's all live that's all this current school year, but the testing data like the level completion that's from the previous year. I, we did like I said we did our initial post testing session this past week. I ran the numbers. We reduced the number of classes that we offer this, this year in because of budget impacts because of cuts and and transitions that were made last year, so we reduced the number of opportunities that we have for people to attend our classes. That being said, if I go to. So,
084this year, I suspect that our, our benchmark number one, this number is going to be lower, we have fewer people who are registering to take the pre test, I think that is true. We're going to have fewer people who attend one or more classes and identify themselves as attendees, then we identified as attendees. Her sisters per sister rate, so the next three per sister level completer and payment point earners which are the most important to us as a program our final outcomes. We have already, even though we're serving fewer people this year. We're serving 10% fewer people this year, we have already have we already have more in pure numbers more per sisters, more post testers and more level completers than we did at this time last year. So that's great. Amongst our community with
085people saying I want, I don't want to register anywhere for anything for some program what if I'm on the on the books in some, you know, I mean, what is LA doing with my information is that going to be reported somewhere. Well, we take their information and we, and it says on the bottom that we will be sharing this with the Department of Education, and the department of the Edd and our partners. And that is required of us by our grand tours. If we don't share that data, they won't provide the funding. I'm just, I'm thinking that that that is the reason for the lower enrollment, or that this the chilling effect that we're seeing because of some of the fear in our in our community about what we're doing with people that are undocumented
086or not or are documented citizens but are of a certain, you know, you right there, they're a little nervous, even, even though we don't ask my best guesstimate would be that 50% of our students are fully documented and 50% or not. But that is just a guess. Based on my historical knowledge. What we're hearing, especially with our folks who are in the lower levels, is that ISIS everywhere, and that they are choosing to go about and live their lives to the best that they can. Because if they're going to get detained, they're going to get detained. And that the biggest impact is that many of our students feel that if they're working, they're going to work as much as they can for as long as they can before they are possibly detained and deported. So,
087rather than sense of fear. I think it's more sense of I'm going to do everything I can while I can do it to take advantage of what's in place to support myself and support my family. I appreciate your, your investment in the in in the people that attend school at LA, it's just it's remarkable like trustee compliance says it's just, it's really great to see the different future, because of what you provide so keep going and. Yeah, I'm, I'm glad you brought pictures as well. That's a great idea. Thank you. I sincerely appreciate the explanation of funding, I think that that was something that I didn't have full clarity on. And so I think that that's fantastic I think that you're having more, more attendees, or a higher percentage of attendees compared to pre testers
088I think speaks to the quality of the community that you're building. And then secondly I just wanted to applaud the relevance and education that you implied. So there was this Brazilian educational philosopher Paulo Freire and he was trying to get rural Brazilians to read. How do you get them to read a lot of them were signing land contracts that they didn't know what it said. So you take something they care about, and then you take the skill, you do those two things so hearing you talk about the parents and IEPs. I think the more that you can bring in relevant relevancy to their learning then it's going to be important to them. So, thank you for your presentation and thank you for your work. Thank you very much. Up next 7.4 2025 demographic presentation from
089Mrs Kim McNeely. Good morning and welcome. Good morning, President drew in members of the board, Superintendent and cabinet. I'm really just the mouthpiece for the introductions, this morning, and DC will be presenting this for you and while I'm talking to you briefly, they will be. And I'll advance slides for them so they're going to remote in just momentarily and introduce themselves and the process that we went through we've been working on this about six months now with the city of Livermore so I'm going to pause for a second and let them get online and. Yes. So I will turn it over to them. We are in and thank you. Hello again, my name is, is Doug Johnson, President National demographics. I'm joined by Christian parks, Robin Merrill and Shelley lab cough. You've heard a lot
090in these presentations about team approach and as you can see we take a big team approach to these projects. And you want to say thanks to Kim and Kimberly Castillo from her staff as well they have been fantastic to work with, we appreciated working with them and Superintendent get Gibson and everyone at the district it's been a very interesting project to be digging into. If we can go ahead and bring up the PowerPoint. There we go. So I'll do a little introduction and then we'll hand off to dig into the numbers. We're going to start out with the big picture the key findings, and then give you an in depth look at the factors that are driving that the enrollment forecast that we're making. And we did forecast both for the district as a whole.
091And then for the individual schools. And we have our primary forecast that's the, and the most likely scenario based on the, the best available data today. The forecast are always, you know, a bit of a guessing game, especially the farther out we look. And so we do have some slides about additional considerations of things that could change the forecast as time goes on. So, if we can go to the next slide. I'll just touch on the big picture. In the absence of future housing growth, and we're going to talk a lot about future housing growth. Your TK through 12 enrollment would be estimated to decline by about 700 students by 2035. So, significant decline this is something that's happening across the state, primarily driven by by families moving out and a big decline in the
092in birth rates that we'll talk about in detail. But in your case, we do have that important caveat in the absence of future housing growth. Because we are forecasting over just over 1200 students coming in from housing that is in the pipeline. So, the housing being built in the city, that's either under construction now. It's been approved or that's been approved, but it's not yet under construction. And that is currently being reviewed by the city. Will more than make up for that 700 student decline and actually you'll end up with a little over 500 student increase by 2035. As you would probably guess, if you have been driving around and seeing construction going on, most of this impact is in the Rancho elementary school area, which is already near capacity. So, that is a definite
093concern when we get above the elementary school level. So, when we're looking at middle schools and high schools, they have plenty of capacity, even with the anticipated housing growth by 2035. So, while there may be a desire to balance the lines or to make those lines correspond with elementary school zones, as the elementary lines need to change. They don't the middle and high school lines won't drive a need for change on their own. And then, as we'll get into junction, it gets a lot of transfer intra district within the district transfers. And so it as we'll talk about its capacity looks good through 2035 as long as those transfer patterns continue. But should there be a change in how junction is set up and in the trends for transfers within the district junction could run
094into capacity issues as well. One thing to keep in mind that we'll talk in detail about is enrollment numbers have been going up because transitional kindergarten eligibility has been expanding each year. And so that has just naturally increased enrollment as more kids are eligible to go to TK. This past fall was the end of that enrollment expansion. Now, all four year olds are eligible for TK. So, that growth that you've been seeing year to year just naturally is expansion as eligibility is expanded, that will stop. And so now it would be much more factor of parents deciding yes to send their kids. So you'll see an increase or no, not to and seeing a decrease in TK. So that's the big picture. I'm going to hand off to Kristen Parks to start digging into the
095details here. Thank you. All right. So starting to look at your enrollment trends, you've probably been pretty focused on the most recent years. And so we wanted to step back and show you all the way back to 1981 what the waves of enrollment up and down have been in the district. And this is grades TK through 12, of course, not including pre-K or the adult students. And you're very aware that in the past 10 years, you've had this about a 7 percent decline in total enrollment. But what's very interesting is to put this into historical context and to see, you know, you had a similar up and down in the previous decade. And so, you know, when we're looking at predicting the future, it can be helpful sometimes to see what the trends have been
096in the past. So when we analyze your enrollment and there are certain factors we look at to forecast enrollment into the future and the first five are what we look at district wide. So we look at kindergarten enrollments relative to the births that occur within your district. So it's really those birth rate trends that affect kindergarten enrollment over time. And we also look at TK and since TK was launched and rolled out gradually over time, we look at that rollout. And then we also look at the births similar to kindergarten to forecast TK into the future. We look at grade progressions. And when we say migration here, we mean just students moving in and out of your district schools. So not necessarily international migration, but could be. We look at housing growth and the enrollment
097that will be generated from families moving into new housing in the future. And our forecasts go 10 years into the future. So we're talking about through 2025. And then the sixth factor becomes significant when we're looking at your individual school forecasts. So for each school, we also do an enrollment forecast. And that's where we start looking at your inter-district transfers. So how many students can we see coming in from outside the district? OK, so looking at kindergarten, there's a lot going on in this chart. First, you see the purple bars here are your kindergarten enrollments. And you can see, you know, those have been decreasing, especially since 2020. Now we add the blue line here, which shows the births to residents in your district five years prior to that kindergarten enrollment year. And that's sort
098of our estimate of how many students would be eligible to enter kindergarten in your district. Right. And so how many of those students are you capturing? And if you go back 10 years ago, you're capturing almost all of those five year olds that we would expect to be entering kindergarten. But that has decreased. And that's the gap between the purple bar and the blue line that has decreased with the smaller kindergarten cohort sizes. So as we look forward to the future, you can see the births have somewhat leveled off. And that will perhaps influence kindergarten to not continue decreasing so dramatically. But births are declining overall, statewide and nationwide. So that does push down on the kindergarten enrollment. So it is lagged, of course, by five years. So this slide shows a chart that's very
099similar for TK. And so the green bars here are your TK enrollment, which, of course, goes up and you have pretty high TK enrollment. But the blue line is a little confusing because we're not seeing an increase in births. Right. We just saw the births were pretty flat. But what we did see was an increase as TK was rolled out over the years in how many of those four year olds were eligible based on what month they were born. So you see here all these eligibility expansions. That's complete. There will be no more eligibility expansions in the future. So we are working with forecasting TK based on how many of those eligible four year olds you have enrolled in the past in recent years. So that's how we're forecasting that into the future. OK, I'm
100passing this over to Robin to give you an overview of the housing forecast that we've constructed. Thank you, Kristen. With the data from the city, we have mapped future housing that is in the city's residential building pipeline so that we can forecast students that will come from this future housing, along with using the geocoded students or the mapped students. So these are the actual footprints of each development that we're looking at on the map. And we know from the data that there are five approved developments shown in blue and six under construction developments shown in green and three under review developments shown in yellow. And also included are the senior housing developments and the tiny home development. And although it's rare that there are students that will come from these developments, we included them because
101they are included in the pipeline. So from the pipeline data, we know that there are three thousand two hundred and sixty four units currently either under construction approved or under review. And based on the type of housing in each of these developments, like single family units or condos and townhomes or apartments, there are one thousand two hundred and five TK twelve students forecasted to come from these developments. And as Doug pointed out earlier, most of the future housing is in the Rancho attendance area. And now I will Kristen will go into more detail on how future housing affects each of your attendance areas. Excellent. So this chart is showing student yield summaries by housing type. So when we're taking those new developments that Robin just showed, we're looking at what's going to be the housing
102type in those new developments. And then we want to figure out how many students we expect by housing type. So the way that we do that is we actually take data from existing housing within your district. And since we do have students mapped and geocoded, we're able to calculate what housing types are generating students currently in the district. So what you see here is the twenty twenty five yield is the first numerical column there and the second numerical column is the number of units that we looked at to compare. So one thing to point out is that under affordable housing, you're always going to see a slightly higher student yield. So we have point five and point five five there and houses point six four are going to have usually more students than condos or
103apartments. So all of these pieces are what we use to build that forecast of how many students are going to come from those additional units in the pipeline. So next slide. All right. So now I'm going to show you just the students that we expect to come from the new housing. So this isn't our total enrollment forecast. This is just how many we're expecting from new housing by school. So you can see which which schools will be impacted. And so, of course, the orange line on this chart here is Rancho Las Positas, which is where the majority of these new developments are. And you can see that in 2035 or by 2035, we're expecting over 400 new students from that construction in that attendance area. So that's the bulk of it. The next slide is
104middle school. So this shows that the bulk of new students coming into middle school is likely to be in the junction area. And again, this is just looking at their grades six through eight. So two hundred and six. And then high school, it's in Granada, the majority. All right. So district wide enrollment forecast. So this is what you're really interested in. So we are currently in twenty twenty five. You have twelve thousand nine hundred ninety two TK twelve students. And we are forecasting in twenty thirty five that you will have about thirteen thousand four hundred and sixty six. And on this slide, there are three charts. Again, it's your elementary, middle and high school. And when you look at this, you see that the elementary school is where the growth is is really expected to
105occur more significantly. The middle school and the high school look a little more stable in terms of future enrollment. And as more housing gets built and as students, these elementary school students work their way through your your different grade levels, then later it will affect middle school and high school. OK, so I'm going to pass it over to Shelly to talk about the individual school forecasts. Thank you, Kristin. The school forecast, also something you're very interested in, I'm sure. And they're very they have a similar methodology as the district wide. But there are a few more things we have to take into account. So one thing is we forecast based on the residents of each attendance area. So this is not the same as the kids attending the school. But we look at the residents
106for a couple of reasons. One is the residents are the underlying demographics of the neighborhood. So that's that's really where a demographer can come in and try and estimate. And then there are the enrollments depend on transfers to and from schools. So you have transfers to Lawrence and then you have transfers to all the other various schools. And it turns out you have quite a bit of transfers. So we start with the residents, then we subtract out who's going to Lawrence. We look at the net transfers and you have a few out of district students. And that's how we come up with our forecasts. So let's look at the next slide, which gives you the twenty thirty five forecast. And I should say we have so much information, as you can probably tell. There's a
107huge appendix with a lot more detail. But this is what we're we're starting with to give you. So we have the other years in the appendix, but twenty thirty five is here. And let's just look at let's take the Rancho line. I hope you all have that in front of you so you can see it. And just because Rancho is so important here. So what you see is that in twenty thirty five, we estimate six hundred and seventeen residents, four hundred and eight students from new housing. So those are when I say residents, that's from existing housing. I should say existing housing residents and then another four hundred and eight from residents in future housing for out of district students. And then right now you have eighty four transfers to Lawrence. So that's what we've
108assumed in the in all the forecasts right now. You have net transfers of ninety three students coming into Rancho. So some kids come out, some go come in. There are more students coming into Rancho than coming out. So that's a situation where you might want to adjust because Rancho is is stressed. So that gives a total of a thousand and thirty nine students and the capacity is only six hundred and sixteen. So you're over capacity by four hundred and twenty three, assuming no changes were made to the attendance boundaries and in our forecasts are pretty accurate. But even if our forecasts aren't that accurate, we can tell you for sure there's going to be overcrowding or a lack of capacity at Rancho. OK, so that is how you would read the forecast. And let me
109just mention that all the other schools are pretty much within capacity by twenty thirty five. Arroyo Seco is on the cusp. So if the transfers were to change, you might be over capacity at Arroyo Seco. So this is a detailed chart, but we it's really interesting and we just want you to be aware of it, that we have this kind of information. And I'm just going to go over the first line of this, which is and it's hard for me to read this. See, it's Altamont Creek. And if you read across, that shows you the residents of Altamont Creek, the K-5 residents, TK-5 residents of Altamont Creek. So if you go all the way to the end to the total line on that first line, it's three hundred and thirty two residents of Altamont Creek.
110And then you can see where are they going. So two hundred and eighty four go to Altamont Creek, twenty five to Croche. So you can see overall forty three students are leaving and not going to Altamont Creek. And if you go down the columns, this tell you tells you who's attending Altamont Creek. So you can see Croche at one hundred and ninety eight students attending. So this bolsters Altamont Creek's enrollment so that the five hundred ninety seven at the bottom is the actual enrollment or close to it at Altamont Creek in fall twenty twenty five. So you can look at all the different permutations and in particular, if you look in the middle at Lawrence, you can see who's attending Lawrence from each of these attendance areas. So I know it's detailed information, but it
111may be something that interests you. Okay, next slide. As Doug mentioned earlier, all the middle and high school forecasts have enough capacity. The one question is Junction, which only has capacity because of transfers to Lawrence and to the other schools. This high schools both have enough capacity throughout the forecast period. The only thing we might add is if you were changing attendance boundaries, it might be a time to look at the high school attendance boundaries, because not everybody, some people are split off. So ideally, the elementary students would, as a group, go to middle schools and then the middle schools as a group would go to a high school. But you have splits in the map. So that is something that we could look at if later you want to address the attendance boundaries. Okay.
112And I think with that, I'm turning it over to Doug. So we've been walking through our primary forecast, and these are our estimates based on the pipeline construction, as you've been hearing. So just to restate the key findings of our primary, and then we'll talk about some of the things that could change. We are looking at births here, declining birth rates here as across the state, reducing the number of students by 700 by 2035. But new construction will more than make up for that and give you about a little over 500 new students. And as you just heard, the primary impact is on Rancho, a little bit of Arroyo and a possibility of concerns at Junction if transfer patterns change. Let me move now to kind of alternatives, things that could impact these. First, I'll
113talk about what if there's even more housing development, and then Shelley will come back and talk a little bit about birth rate declines as well. So let me start with the next slide. We've talked about the concrete pipeline. We focus on that because those units are very concrete. Many of them are actually under construction now. Or they're being or their specific plans from the builders that have either been approved or that are being evaluated by the city. So we're pretty sure they'll be built or where there's the lawsuit around the downtown Livermore Apartments, but that will likely be built in some form. Year to year, there is question about exactly how many units will be built and occupied. But when we're focusing on where will we be by 2035? We're pretty sure those will be
114built in some form. There is, however, other data from the Housing Element Plan that the city submitted to the state and from a possible general plan revision that could increase the number of units being built. But they're much more amorphous and not nearly as concrete to base a forecast on. But the key thing to keep in mind as we watch this over the coming years is that if the makeup of townhouses and single family houses and apartments and condos that Kristen talked about earlier remains about the same development by development as what we've seen in the pipeline. Then for every thousand additional housing units, you'll end up with about 370 more TK-12 students. As I mentioned, that is driven by the type of household, but we have seen fairly consistent makeup of townhouses and apartments
115and single family homes in recent development. So we would expect that to continue somewhere in that ballpark. But again, these are much less specific forecasts. So how many units might come? We're looking at in the Housing Element Plan, which the city was required to submit to the state and did about two years ago. They identified really every possible parcel that a residential unit could be built on. And so there's a lot of individual parcels. You can see the potential two in Smith and three in Mitchell and nine in Jackson. Those we're not really concerned about. Those aren't going to be a significant impact. But there's a potential for even more housing in Rancho. If you're familiar with the specific plan for Rancho, there are 1,800 units more or less that are out there that have
116not yet shown up in the pipeline, but could be built on a specific plan. And the Housing Element Plan identified almost 1,300 parcels with capacity for almost 1,300 of those units. So what we're really looking at in the Housing Element Plan is Rancho and Arroyo Seco impacts, some in Maryland. One thing to keep in mind with the Housing Element Plan, though, is it really is kind of a maximum count. I don't know of a city that has actually built everything outlined in their Housing Element. Usually as you get specific plans and then go through the approval process, those numbers come way down, which is why they're really hard to forecast off of. But we did want to have in your mind that the city kind of looks at Arroyo Seco, Rancho as the big areas
117where there's still the more possibility for growth. And that is reinforced by the next slide, which is the city, as you probably know, is just beginning to look at revising its general plan. So this is extremely ballpark and it's looking all the way out to 2045, so 20 years out. So in addition to what's in our forecast, they're very ballparking at this point. There could be a lot of housing. Another 400 in the Rancho area. You can see another 1500 in Croche and Altamont Creek combined. And then the big one would be Arroyo, where you could have as many as 4,000 units built out there. Again, this is over 20 years. So these aren't numbers that we're incorporating in our forecast, but there are things to keep an eye on as the city goes through
118its general plan process and ultimately adopts it. And then actual proposals start coming in. But again, looking at where there is pressure and where there will be pressure down the lines on your capacities, you're really looking Rancho and Arroyo. And then the more distant future up in Croche and maybe in Altamont Creek. So this is a summary of what I've been walking through. You can see in the left-hand side. We've got the 3,264 housing units that are in our forecast because they are concrete proposals. Then up to 2100, that would really be a maximum number in the housing element plan. And then in the 10 to 15 years after that, so from 2031 to 2045, the potential for 4750 to 7,000 units. Keep in mind that these support for new housing can also swing. And
119so this is looking at the state's current approach to encouraging housing and the city's current approach of being open to moderate housing growth, which is better than most places. Most of our clients were looking at significant enrollment drops because they're not building this housing. And so then going to I'll give it back to Shelley to talk about the possible variation in birth rates. Thanks, Doug. As a demographer, we're always concerned about births. And in the forecast that we gave you, we put births stable, which is something we often do because it's very hard to forecast future births. So this would affect, we have births to 2023, so we can forecast kindergarten to 2028. But beyond that, we're sort of guessing. So we kept it stable. And I was concerned about that because the rest of
120the world is having declining births, even though Livermore has an experience declining births, but California is experiencing declining births and especially Alameda County. So we ran a forecast that said, well, what if births declined instead of maintain stability? So I wanted to show you the next chart. Next slide. These are the birth forecasts from the state demographers. California is expected to decline by, that's the bottom chart, 6%. But Alameda is projected to decline by 17%. That would be a huge decline if that actually arose in Livermore. And we also wanted to show Contra Costa County because you might feel more aligned with their demographics than all of Alameda County. And that shows pretty stable births. Now, as it happens, this is really fun for us because it doesn't always happen. But the 2024 data came
121out like a week ago, and it is exactly what was in our forecast for 2024, the births. So right now we're on track with the central forecast that we did, but that doesn't mean it will stay that way. So anyway, we did a forecast assuming that you followed the Alameda County decline and the next chart shows you what that would look like in your case. And, oh, sorry, not the next getting ahead of myself just to show you that you do have a birth decline, even though it doesn't look like it. The reason you don't have the birth decline is because you've had so much housing growth. So if we took births divided by housing, you would see a decline in Livermore. So you're being buttressed by the housing growth that is coming into Livermore.
122Okay, so now the next slide shows you our forecast, which doesn't start varying off until after, until 2029, if we had a different birth forecast, a future birth forecast. So you can see that you would be declining. So it's another thing to keep monitoring those birth numbers. And just wanted you to be aware of that. And just to wrapping up, if you go to the next slide. So we're happy to discuss this, as Shelley mentioned and Chris mentioned, there's a ton of data that goes into all this, so we're happy to discuss any of this in more detail. And then next steps would be to look at options and timing for addressing the looming overcapacity issues, primarily in Rancho. And then as Shelley mentioned, if you so directed, we could also look at more nesting
123of matching up in elementary and middle and high school areas so you didn't have kids getting divided as they move from one layer level to another. So that is our presentation, and I'm happy, we're all happy to take any questions you have about any of this material. Thank you. Thank you so much. There's no blue cards on this so I'll open it up to the board and we'll go to trustee Bueno first. Thank you all. A quick question. Initially, as part of your data gathering. Did you not just on proposed, but do you have a statistic for how many housing units are north of the freeway 580 and west of Livermore. The main thoroughfare. And the reason I asked that is we have no schools in that area, and it's projected for high growth. So
124we do have all these numbers calculated really down to the parcel level that those shapes of the different developments that are coming up Robin actually created those looking at them parcel by parcel. I don't know the numbers offhand, we could certainly get that to you, because we'd have to calculate it. But yes, that is the impact of having Rancho south of the freeway over there and all that construction north of the freeway is clearly your, your, your looming pressure point. Isabel neighborhood. Excuse me. Isabel neighborhood specific plan. Yes, and well there's also a Montecito and not to get in the minutia of it but there's a lot of already developed neighborhoods with mixed housing. The college is up there with a billion dollar bond, you know, so they're building that student housing and and so
125then we have all these big blocks of homes that are going in now with mixed use. And the basis of my question is that, at what point do we stop migrating children. When this town was developed. The last big surge say 1958 1972 and sunset development develop most of the southwest corner. There was five elementary schools that were built in that area. It just seems like we have a parcel of land over there. And, you know, at what point, you know, in your guys research, did you guys ever dig into other communities, you know where there's requirements to build as part of the approval process to build housing to actually build schools so that we're not just looking at total numbers of seats that we have for children, but actually what's you know neighborhood school
126concept. I'll touch on a little bit and then Shelley Kristen Robin join in too. I think one of the interesting things here is that in our forecast you have definite capacity issues at Junction and Arroyo is getting close, but overall you actually have plenty of capacity. I think there's in 2035 year at the elementary level you about 800 extra seats. So it's less of a pressing need for for more campuses from a capacity viewpoint. I think you're right to the argument though. Well, I think that goes to the argument when we say plenty. You know when you have a six year old that you're taking the school every day, and we say yeah but that kid has to go 10 miles, all the way across town is a big town, and we have to go
127through it takes 25 minutes to get my kid there. And then my other son, or my daughter is in junior high and they have to go to the other side of town, and both parents are normally working now. I think we're getting away from the neighborhood concept that this sound that this place was built upon. Yeah, so I'm going to step in really quickly because that's part of, so this is step one in the process the next part of this process will be us working closely with Doug and his team, and Kim is is the main point person so thank you Kim for that. But really looking at our streets and assigning updating our street assignments for that exact reason, so that as we have housing growth, let's say, exactly in the area that you're
128speaking of, then we are reallocating space. One of the things that's going to come out of this discussion that the board will need to make a decision on is really around and this is what started this whole project, if you remember back in. I don't know I'm going to say March ish or April ish Kim is really around new families moving into the Lawrence neighborhood and not having a school to go to, because you can't go to Lawrence, and you cannot go to junction. There is no neighborhood school there, because of the way those programs are designed. So part of this is going to be around the board making a decision around the mapping and and the dual immersion if we keep dual immersion, then that school stays as is and we remap our boundary
129areas to attach additional streets and not just three to Lawrence, going forward. And so those are the types of conversations that this will take us to to that next level, so that we don't have families, not in their neighborhood schools. Okay, I mean I know we had that conversation about Lawrence. That's what started this whole that's why we're here today. The other thing to going back to your other question about the developer fee piece we are working on that right now with legal and the city. We are consistently getting letters from them that we are responding to on the regular and our response now is a very different response, even if we don't need to build a school. I think what's really important for the city to to hear from the school district is that
130we still have needs, and there will be impacts, we still have infrastructure needs and things that need to be improved upon and so we're really getting ahead of that, and really engaging with the city in that process, separate from Doug and his team. Okay, and thanks for the clarification. I just know that being in government for a long time a lot of times you bring in statisticians and you start making an argument, and then by the time we get down the road, and people actually divulge exactly what they're doing it so far. Hey, do we want to turn the ship now, because I become I remain a very firm supporter of open enrollment, I know when it happened in this community and why, and how it's benefited and it's removed pockets of poverty, and it's
131given children opportunity. And so, yeah, Lawrence, when we open Lawrence we just never established that as a neighborhood school. So it's good to know that we're going to actually have an area for Lawrence, if that's the focus here. One question also on this, and it'd be my last one on this. When we do it sounds like the housing starts for purposes of your statistics are tied to the birth rates were kind of. But what I want to know, did you do when you dig down. Do we look at who actually lives in the home. And the reason I asked that is, like, I live in the southwest corner of town. It was built in 58 to 72. Most of the people remain there until they pass. And with interest rates, and the lack of insurance.
132The normal housing migration that we saw 20 3040 years ago is not occurring, where people with empty nesters are moving to the foothills and buying up family style single family homes for young families. And so that's not happening. We have a number of people in our neighborhoods that are 80 and 90 years old. So are we accounting for that in this study. So you touch on a topic actually that we as a team discuss almost daily because you're exactly right. That is a trend, not just here, but that we see across the whole state of houses, not turning over and not that old cycle where people would downsize when they get older is happening less and less. And that's creating pressure on houses for families. And so we do see that we do see that
133here. And that is a big part of why your stable birth rate is dependent on those new homes being built. So we're not look at your specific question. We don't look house by house to see that kind of thing where the births are. We get the data zip code by zip code, but we can dig in and look at the numbers and see. Yeah, your birth rate is stable only because of these new homes being built for the fans to move into. Chris and Shelley, anything to add to that? Yeah, I wanted to add that we do capture that turnover of the older homes and they happen in what we call the grade progressions. So as you as we forecast like kindergarteners become first graders, the first graders become second graders and so on. Their
134numbers change as they progress through the grades and often they increase because people are moving into Livermore with children. And similarly, they move in with preschoolers. So when we compare births to kindergarten enrollment, that's where you'll see it. So right now there's that gap. You might remember, but earlier it was more in line. So that difference between births and kindergarten enrollment are the homes turning over the older homes and families with preschoolers coming in. And it's weird since COVID. I think there's been a different. I think it's somehow the pandemic changed migration patterns because you're having fewer of those. Families with preschoolers moving in post COVID then pre COVID. So, so, so there's that, but I also want to address one other thing that you said earlier about the housing growth and not having a
135school there. This is where I've seen over my 40 years working with school districts. It's where it's important to negotiate with the city for for resources and just having this kind of information, like then going to the city and presenting them with this information can help you get resources from the city to help out. I appreciate that. And I think that's something that the district willfully needs to work on. And it's been my experience, not here, but it just in government, that no one wants to be the straw that breaks the camel's back. So what you'll hear in that discussion is, well, we're only building 200, and we'll never reach capacity. And we don't really need the school until you get to capacity. But 50 years ago when they built homes, the school went down
136first and the houses surrounded the school. And just now people don't want to make that investment. And so we do that to the demise of children. And we look at it as well we can just spread the butter a little farther. Yeah, one legal constraints now, but you can, hopefully you can get as much as you can from the development community and the city to help. Thank you. Thank you. And just, just when we talk about people and just my last question on when we do the overlays. If people are 70 years old and they live in houses, I mean it's basic voter registration data. When you look at the age of people that live in the homes is that a consideration because it's doubtful that the birth rate is going to be there when
137the demographic overlay shows that the average age is 65. So, are you overlaying, like you have to be of childbearing age to have a birth rate at all. Is that an overlay that you incorporate into your data. So we're actually looking at which houses have current students. Right, and going back a couple years so, you know, if that 70 year old maybe has a grandkids living there then they'll show up. So we're using that to generate our comparable student yields to predict what's going to happen in the new housing, but we're assuming that the current housing stays the same. Well, the great progressions pick that up. And so that's the question. I think that's the question that you haven't and a lot of people have, we see all these old folks in homes eventually those
138homes will turn over, and then we'll get more students. Well, it turns out that process happens so gradually. I mean, you would, you would think that would have to turn over, but it happens really gradually. So we pick it up in the great progressions and occasionally we'll see that the great progression shift over time, but it's usually a gradual process is all I can say. I think with some eyes saying we don't, we don't go down the individual person and go through person by person like you could with voter registration records, but what that data means we do pick up. So through the great progressions through the birth data through your kindergarten to birth ratios all those numbers do show up in our, in our forecast. Thank you, trustee Vanden Heuvel. Thanks for your presentation.
139So this may be a more question for staff I don't, I don't know on slide six. Is it slide six. Yeah, there's this, there's a gap between eligible births and enrollment. Where do those students go now, since 2018, 2020. Do we know where those, where those kids are they go to private school do they stay home school do they just not enroll because they're not. They may not be here. They may have left the area. Yeah, like they just left right here and be like we're moving to Texas or moving to Virginia or something like that is at least as part of it or. I see, I see. Yeah, just to put, if I can add a little color commentary on that slide. What you're seeing really is before 2020 where the person five years
140prior in kindergarten matchup, is you get essentially the same number of families move into the area is move out post having a kid. And so it's a state, so you essentially are one to one ratio there. What you're seeing post 2020 and of course post coded a lot more work went remote is that shifted more and your more families leave the area after they have a kid, then move into the area after they have a kid. Yeah, take that into consideration. Good point. So, it looks like in the district about 25% of students do not attend their neighborhood school. Is that something. Is that normal do we want to improve that do we want to increase that so that there's more flexibility Do you want to decrease that so we can. It's more predictable what
141do we, how do we do that. I would say it's not a matter of wanting to increase or decrease it's a matter of planning. What we need to, what we're starting to do a better job of is creating seats, if you will, in classrooms, and then holding a line, so that we then don't have lower class sizes so it happens some what has happened, historically, in the Every student gets to go wherever they choose to go to which is a great concept, however, then you'll have classes across the district that said it 13 or 16 instead of a 24. And that comes at a significant cost to the district. At this point in time we don't have those funds available. So what we're trying to do is anticipate that we have opened up our open
142enrollment earlier and we have a new system and process we've been working on this year to roll out for next year in hopes that we can get everyone where they wish to go to. At the same time that we're doing correct staffing ratios at those sites so to find balance of of maintaining that and then once those particular sites or those classrooms and those grade levels are full, then they're full, we will not be adding any further to those sites because otherwise it forces us then to start adding additional combo classes, which we know also aren't good for students or teachers. Yeah, then we you know then you have to end up with, as Trustee Bueno pointed out, students who have to drive a significant amount of miles to try to get to their school
143because that one particular one that they want to go to is closed and that's Yeah, one of the things that we had happen in the two years I've been here is we have not held seats open. So we have done full capacity with transfers. And so then what happens is over the summer as new families trickle in, there are not seats open then at every grade level at a school site so a perfect example this year what happened in August the family moved in there were four children. The site had no room and every single one of those children had to go to a different elementary school. And to me that's just completely unacceptable. That's just not customer service to our families with four students going to four different schools in four different corners of
144the city. So we ended up making some transfers we got it worked out with that family because there was just no way there were students who were assigned and kind of pushed out to other school sites that technically their homeschool was the opposite school. So, but the lens on the system wasn't on that, and the bigger picture of looking at. Okay, wait a minute, who can we flip flop around to open up seats if we have eight kids at Jackson who their homeschool is Seiko and Seiko has the room, why would we not push them back to their homeschool, open up those eight seats then for neighborhood kids. That's exactly what happened. So we're able then to open up these seats we call parents, do you want to go back to your neighborhood school, absolutely,
145then we're going to put you there we open up these seats as family was able to get in. But those systems just had to be built within our own system they had not been created. I would imagine this is going to take many years to try to write that ship to get students because your siblings are there you've got connections you're the, you're involved in PTA or, you know, it's not easy to move a school. No, so students who are out of school and have been there so if I if I came into the system at first grade and I'm now going into fourth grade next year and I've been there for three years where their grandfathered and they're saying, it's the students that were new to the district that we intentionally bumped. They have
146never attended a school in Livermore, and yet we didn't bump them back to their homeschool. So it's like the well let's put you back at your let's have you start fresh at your homeschool as a new student in this community, versus the other, we won't bump students out who have been in as we're cleaning this up. Just like let's say at Lawrence, I just definitely want to put this out there for the sake of, of all of our Lawrence families. If the board opts to attach more streets to Lawrence, then we would phase that in starting with TKK and then, you know, following year would be we'd add first grade and second grade so the students who are still there get to stay there through their tenure through fifth grade, what about younger siblings that
147are waiting to go to Lawrence. And so they would they would need to go through the inner district transfer process. Okay, intra district. And then, I also want to double click on something, Trustee Bueno said because I, I got your answer I'm not sure if it's sufficient to for the team. I do think that in the next 15 years we're going to see a significant number of homes, go to younger families, I just see so many people in their 70s and 80s, who have hung on to their home but now they're you know it's, I mean, biology is going to catch up with them. They're moving out so no homes are becoming available. Is that, am I correct to assume that that's part of your projection that homes are going to turn over. I think
148to, to, to, I think there's a bubble there in Livermore especially if I look around. Do you want to address it. I have tried to search for those bubbles for 40 years. I would love for us to do a special study that's really good. Yeah, that's coming from an expert that's really that's really helpful to hear like, hey, I know you think that there's a bubble but good luck finding one. And we could do a special study we didn't do that we can do like a special housing study of your older neighborhoods. We could do that but we did not do that specifically we're relying on, like I said the great progressions, but we could look at when we've looked at it in the past the housing turnover. It's weird but housing turnover rates decline.
149The longer you've held the house. So you would think like at 30 years, 40 years that these homes would suddenly have a blip up in rates, but we were not able to see that but I haven't looked at that in a while. I mean, I'm just thinking like with Prop 13 that there is some sort of a bubble in our area where that we, I don't know, I don't know, just anecdotally. Prop 13 it should affect it, it should make it easier to see. It's easier for people to leave their house now. Yeah, however, the new families coming in are having fewer children. So that's also playing into this right is that they might have one or two kids whereas in the past in the 50s or something they may have been having three or
150four kids. Right. And anecdotally you're right there's there's definitely some of this happening obviously it has to happen. But what she's been encountering is she's looked at this for decades and I know the superintendent can know this but Shelley did enrollment studies for Livermore back in the 90s. So she's been looking at your data for a long time. It's just so gradual that it's not it's not a bubble popping. It's just a very, very gradual shift, especially as life expectancies get longer and longer. It's spread out within the past might have been a fairly compressed you turn 65 and you move out. Well I think this is really helpful data and it's going to inform a lot of really important and district changing decisions for us so thank you. Thank you for your presentation. A
151lot of my questions have already been answered but I just have a quick one about in the past for your predictions, how accurate have they been, and then how did it historically affect our schools. So I did one way back in when I was in graduate school. I don't, I don't even remember that study, so I haven't been doing it through the years, but it was just kind of, I remember it because I did Pleasanton and Livermore at the same time. But actually they're, I'm always surprised when they're pretty accurate. So they, they tend to be pretty accurate. The, the reason is because the students from new housing can be pretty well predicted. We don't know exactly when they're going to come, because the housing doesn't always get built exactly when we have our forecasts,
152but the overall amount of kids in that housing, that's pretty, pretty accurate. And then in the short run, we are starting with your current students. So that's a good base to start from, like they're in your schools, and we're just aging them one year at a time. So like next fall, we have most of the students today that will be in your schools tomorrow. So obviously the farther out we go, the less accurate it is, but I, we can say, that's why I was saying, like, no matter how inaccurate these forecasts are, for sure you're going to have a chew with Rancho because of all that new housing coming. And that, that really is the biggest factor is, especially when we're looking at like a 10 year forecast, is if there's a political shift so
153that, you know, in your case you've got kind of moderate housing growth going on. If there were to be a council shift and suddenly they try to rein that all in. And so, for example, you know, there were had a ton of growth in the 90s, really curtailed that growth in the 2000s. You know, obviously a forecast done in the late 90s expecting that growth to continue because that was the city's plan would be very wrong when the city changed his plan and cut that cut off that growth. And here yours, yours will be vulnerable to that as well because it is so dependent, the growth is so dependent on new housing that if there were to be a big change of view. Now the advantage for us is that California kind of limits how
154much a city's view on housing can change nowadays. So, but yes, the methodologies have been proven very, very reliable and accurate. Obviously the things that the assumptions and the bigger picture can radically impact our forecast. Yeah, but another advantage is that we're working with so many districts across the state that we're starting to see trends. For example. When the COVID pandemic hit and there were declines in enrollment, particularly in the lower elementary grades, we expected that subsequently that enrollment would rebound. And what we're seeing with what across the state is that enrollment is not getting back up to those pre pandemic levels. You know, so similarly to what our key conclusion here is, is without that new housing growth, you would have declined enrollment in your future. Okay, thank you for explaining that. Just circling
155back just a little bit because I know we talked about we were tying this directly to housing. And I know for those who live out here or come through here and look to do stats. It looks like we're a big giant place that sprawling out into the wilderness you know we have a lot of rural area but that's a deliberate act of the urban area growth boundary. And so, essentially, we are like the communities that are on the west side of the ridge, where the communities are contiguous, and there are no gaps. And so any housing increase we're going to see is going to be infill projects. And so, keeping that in mind, and I'm from that side of the ridge most people out here migrated you know from there. When we saw a community
156like in San Leandro and maybe you might be familiar with it. But when we say that it takes so long to get there. The average age in San Leandro was 57 people didn't move. They were empty nesters they were grandparents, but when they passed away, or went into care facilities but we know when the housing changed. It was drastic impact on the schools, and the San Leandro high school for instance had to build buildings blocks away from the school because they were just out of real estate. And so I've seen it, because they. It may take a moment to happen, but when it happens. The same amount of change is going to happen just much more rapidly. And so I'm wondering when we tie it only to housing we're not going to have that growth.
157I just know when these houses turn over, and they will, as you said Doug, when they do turn. And I just want to make sure that we're ready for it then. One is Kristen just mentioned. Keep in mind that now when they turn over young families now have many fewer kids than they did. Even 20 years ago. You know one kid to kid is kind of max for most families. And, and this this upcoming general plan for your city I think will be interesting because it really will see where it goes. And I think that's where it's focused will be filling in the West and filling in the East. And, and that'll really be as you point out the end, you know, that'll fill in what's left to your urban development boundary. And then after
158that, you'll become more like a San Leandro city. What Superintendent Gibson was mentioning about being so engaged with the city now is it starts that general plan process in our forecast. When you run out of capacity is actually over in Arroyo in that 2045 very, very amorphous scenario. So that would be where you may want the general plan or the development agreements to come out of it to have a school. But yeah, I think you've got this general plan and then you'll probably be essentially built out and looking almost entirely at infill. Yeah. Let me add something I could actually work for San Leandro I think during that period that you were talking about so I, I don't know if it's exactly that time period but I work with them for about 15 years. And
159you're right, at least when I was working there, there was a bubble that came up. The difference in my mind was that it was when the interest rates dropped. So maybe there needs to be two things happening. There have to be homes ready to sell, and the interest rates drop. And then you see a lot of housing turnover. So what I've seen in the past, it's more a function of what I call a period, a time period effect from the interest rates dropping. And then a lot of people that had rentals, or just people ready to sell their home, then there was like a mass exodus. So you're right that could happen, especially if, you know, five years from now we've got pretty low interest rates. The other dynamic, just so you're aware of it,
160I don't know if this is going to play out as relevant to you or to San Leandro, is we used to see the California's births were driven very heavily by Latino and Asian American first generation immigrants. And a lot of the forecasts that we used to look at back in the 80s assume that especially Latino families would remain large through two and three generations. And that all turned out to be wrong. That Latino, by the second generation, Latino families were essentially the same size as white families. And that it's a great sign policy wise, it meant that in California, Latino women were finding the same educational opportunities and job opportunities, certainly by the second generation, often by the first as native Californians. But that is a factor that California, even before COVID and before Trump
161was not seeing those kinds of immigrant numbers anymore. And so even if we do, if you get a San Leandro style turnover, you're not likely to see the kind of student numbers generated from it that we would have 20, 25 years ago. I think just a couple points. I'm not sure there are questions, but first I appreciate that the data that you're giving, especially in the next five years, which I think demographic studies, about every three to five years, are conservative and based on real projects that have the potential to lead, as we had said, generate students. So I appreciate that, that knowing that that's the case, I think, gives us a relatively clear direction. The kind of second point was thinking about, you know, what is the tipping point of redrawing lines and thinking
162about how we're funneling students and giving students access to schools. And I think that this kind of points that we're at that having at least initially having that conversation. And the third point kind of circling back to Trustee Bueno and Trustee Vanden Heuvel points to some extent that I think the capacity versus walking school, we might have the capacity, but I think that there's a, I don't know, time-honored tradition or an idea of students being able to have access, safe access to school. When I was in grad school, I wrote a paper on Southside Tracy, and the reason that you had the railroad tracks bisected Tracy, and you had a lot of the immigrant families that were working on the railroads on the south side of Tracy, and they would have to cross the railroad
163tracks. There were accidents. And so the first elementary school happened as a result of that large, I mean, we don't have railroads there, but we have a freeway. And I think that those are some things that we're going to have to keep in mind and thinking about what is the school experience for the people over there. And if they have to haul their kids and, you know, I live over by Jackson, and if you're out in the morning, you can see families kind of carpooling by bikes and walking to school. And I think that that's a healthy, you know, healthy option. So I think what I'm trying to say is this has led to lots of questions, and I think, but I appreciate that, again, that it's rooted in best practices, it's rooted in projects
164that exist, and it gives us an idea of kind of the topics that we need to pursue moving forward. So thank you so much for the presentation. It's fascinating on lots of different levels and I have lots of questions that I didn't ask because that's just other parts of my brain, but thank you so much. Our pleasure. We, we've really enjoyed the work so far and we look forward to continuing to work with the superintendent Gibson and Miss McNealy and your whole team. Thank you so much. With that we'll move to 7.5 approval approval of memorandum of plural of understanding between LVJ USD and Leadership Management Association and classified managers slash confidential and I'll turn it over to Dr. Jessica vendors. Great, thank you. So CalPERS has recently informed us that per new requirement then
165order for longevity to count towards creditable compensation and mo you is required retroactive to the change in the longevity calculation from a flat dollar amount based on years of service to To a percentage based on years of service and this is for Leadership Management Association, LMA and classified managers confidential employee groups. So historically longevity has always been counted toward creditable compensation and CalPERS has only recently notified us of this new requirement and they let us know that needs to happen within 30 days. That's why these mo user on this agenda. So in the mo use you can see that it's retroactive to 2017 2018 and that's when the change in longevity happen. These groups from a flat dollar amount to a percentage based on years of service. And so there's no fiscal impact. It is
166just to codify that this change happened back in 2017 2018. There's no fiscal impact, and it's a superintendent's recommendation to approve the memorandum of understanding between LVJ USD and LMA Leadership Management Association and classified managers confidential CMC. Thank you. I have no blue cards in this will open up to discussion. Any questions from the board. Just a clarification understand stand up in conformance with, you know, the oversight PERS or this is PERS not sure it's PERS classified, but there's no fiscal impact. So there's no base building on this. This is simply cut a codification of something of practice. That's correct. Okay. Thank you. If there's no other discussion, then I would entertain emotion and move in support of super test recommendations. So I have a motion to approve, sir. Second. Second. So I have a
167motion to approve from trustee Bueno a second from trustee Kaplanis any discussion on the motion. Clerk, if you can take the role. Myself I trustee Bueno trustee Kaplanis. Hi, President June. I'm that motion carries for zero in the absence with the absence of trustee Prusome. So we'll move on to 8.0 consent items we have one consent item personnel recommendations. There any questions regarding a one a. If not, I would entertain emotion. I move to support the superintendent's recommendation to approve all personnel recommendations. I have a motion to approve from trustee Kaplanis. Is there a second. Second. Second from trustee Vanden Heuvel. Is there any discussion on the motion. Clerk, if you could take role trustee Bueno trustee Kaplanis. I myself I present during I that motion carries for zero with the absence of trustee Prusome.
168That brings our meeting to a closure. Our next meeting will be a special board meeting January 5th, 2026 open session will begin at 11 a.m. Thank you all.