001To the flag of the United States of America to the standice for all are there any public comments? Next up, I need um a motion to approve the agenda for the November 17th, 2025 regular meeting as presented. So move >> second. Okay. >> All those in favor raise your right hand and say I. >> Those opposed. Motion passes. I need a motion to approve the consent agenda items 5.02 through 5.09 as presented. >> All those in favor raise your right hand and say I. >> I. >> Those opposed. Motion passes. Next up, new business financial statements for October 25. We need an action to approve the October 2025 financial statements as presented. Mr. Cook, >> good evening. >> Oh, >> I knew we didn't vote yet. [laughter] >> Second, Kathy, >> Mr. Cook, >> the
002suspense was killing me as to how they were that done. So, uh, operating revenues for October down about 100,000 from September, 1.74 million. Still no local taxes are delinquent in October, but we did have 865,000 of local revenue, 7%. So, we got our our fourth Proposition C payment for FY26 at 638,000 down about 5,000 from last month, but statewide ADA went up, so it erodess into that a little bit. Um, if you would bear with me, I had just a couple of u financial topics to editorialize on a little bit. This month we had a little bit of time. So a small piece of the statewide funding discussion that we're going to be seeing unfold over the next few months is going to be related to Proposition C. So a little bit of background about
003Prop C 1982, a sales tax that went into a trust fund to be distributed to school districts based on weighted ADA and and since its inception, it's been characterized as local funding. Uh and we we count it as such in our budgets and statewide. So, uh, it was characterized at the time to, uh, have a reduced local property tax burden as part of the added benefit of passing that statewide. So, almost every school district in the state instituted a Prop Cy roll back uh, so that the property taxes that might have been reduced were kept the same. And we're one of those districts. I think there's only 35 left in the state that have not passed that that waiver. So a as we've said before, Missouri ranks 50th in percentage of public school funding that
004comes from the state level. So one of the discussions that's been going on in Jeff City is to reccharacterize Propsc as state funding instead of local funding. Uh so a little bit of a game to shift that around. If they did that then Missouri would jump up to 43rd in the contribution level. So if you hear that discussion going on, you should recognize it for what it is. It's just a shell game. Uh they had they had wanted Propscy to be counted in local funding, but now as a matter of convenience, there's been discussion of shifting that back or or maybe even just trying to say, well, we we characterize Propsy as local, but we all know it's really statewide, so we're not as bad off as it as it seems, if that makes sense.
005So just just kind of wanted to plant that seed with you all because I think that discussion is going to over the course of the turn of the year as that goes on. So, don't fall don't fall for that and I would encourage our patrons to do the same that it's it's really just a shell game. Uh county revenues, no revenue from St. Louis County in October. State revenue, we we went up a little bit uh 47,000 from our October payment. Uh basic formula was down though about 84,000 from September at 414. Uh we were paid uh so far in FY26 we've been paid 6,900 SAT on the formula. This month it went down by a dollar 6,899. Uh revenue didn't support the full funding at 6,900 which is still not full funding which should
006be 7145. So, one one little aside on the formula as well and and if you know I don't want to belabor this point, but it's something for us to keep an eye on over time as this formula rewrite takes shape. So, as you guys probably know, the SAT is a calculation of what the best performing districts in the state of Missouri are spending per student. So, the state would say that $7,145 per student is adequate to fund students in public ed. So, it's supposed to be at that level. Again, so far we've only 6,900 68.99 this month. Uh so so one factor I think it's important for the board to understand and our patrons to understand is that under the current formula the local effort is subtracted from the amount that is owed to us
007through the formula before we get it. So, we're actually entitled based on our weighted ADA to $37 million a year uh in state formula funding, but they subtract our local effort from that and we're left with $7.7 million that we actually get from the state formula. Uh so, it's about a $29.5 million difference. So, thanks to the local taxpayers of Kirkwood, the SAT that is actually paid out to uh to the Kirkwood School District is 1,439. So, $7,145 is what they say it takes, but because of the contribution of a local effort, it reduces down to just a little over $1,400 is as the SAT we actually get paid out on. So, that's a difference of 5706 per student between those two things. So, I don't think we characterize it in that way often enough
008because we talk about that SAT and it came up last month of of what do you budget on? Well, well really, you know, we plug that number in, but that's really never what we see because of our local effort being subtracted. So, of of greater concern, I think, and one of the things to keep on your radar is that as the formula is rewritten, one of the major aspects of that is to update the local effort calculation. So, right now the local ef that's subtracted from what we're owed is based on 200405 numbers. 20 years worth of change has happened in our local effort over time. And so our AV our AV has gone up over a billion dollars in that time period. So there is not really a way right now for us to
009predict what that recalculation of local effort might do to the money that we get in in the state formula funding. But but one thing I think we do know is that if we think of the money that comes from the state level as a pie, the pie is not getting bigger. The the pieces are just going to get cut up differently. And so uh that we we stand to be uh really greatly affected by that local effort recalculation. That's a piece I think we need to talk to our legislators about, talk to our community about is that uh that piece that could have a really great impact on us uh moving moving forward. So, uh editorializing done uh class classroom trust fund was $121,000 higher in October than in September, but lest we be too
010excited about that, remember that gets also subtracted from the formula payment that we're owed. So whatever that number comes in, they then subtract that to lower our formula payment as well. Transportation, this was the first month that we were paid on FY26 mileage. Uh so we increase to 90,294. We should be getting that uh every month now for the next 12 months expiring next September as that mileage gets recalculated. But again, a reminder that we only get 75% of what we're actually entitled to. So the the full funding of the transportation piece is really just 75% of what school districts are are owed over time. Little bit of money coming in from PAT for educational screening again and uh continuing to get a little bit of a grant payment from DESIE as well. Uh small
011amount of CTE funding showed up in federal revenues in the month of October as well. Uh operating expenditures for October, $7.6 million. We're at 23.5 million year to date. So just under 25% of budgeted expenses and uh we're a third of the way through now. So trending in a good good way there. Uh a good month for self-funded insurance fund balance last stock or we're up now to $1.142 million. Uh we brought in more money this time this month than uh than was paid out in claims. So uh we're at 1.142 this month. Last October the balance was 668,000. So, we're trending in a better direction. As we all know, the insurance game is relatively unpredictable. So, that that good month could be followed with a bad bad month, but we'll hope hope for the
012best there. So, any questions about any of that? Appreciate your patience with me. Uh just sort of some educational pieces there. >> Miss Neman, Miss Huff, Mr. Kathy, Dr. Sher, Miss Andrews. Thank you very much. Now we need to vote. All those in favor of approving the October 2025 financial statements as presented, please raise your right hand and say, "I." >> I. Motion passes. Next up is the calendar recommendation. First reading and approval. I need an action to approve the 2026 2027 Kirkwood School District calendar as presented. Second. Second. Eper. Thank you, Dr. Rich. >> Good evening, board. I am thrilled to be here on behalf of the 18 folks that spent 13 uh late afternoon, early evenings with us this year. Uh two of those members of our calendar committee are here with us.
013Thank you to Mr. Miss Andrews, uh myself, uh but the 15 folks that were with us in these meetings, you know, in in my career academically, you're you're a part of a lot of committees and there's varying degrees of engagement when it comes to, you know, a committee as large as ours was, right? 18 people in one room. Um can be a lot. When I say that everyone made it a point to make sure everyone's voice was heard and it was for those that were with with us, it was neat to see at each meeting there was a different voice that came to the forefront. There was not one singular voice that dominated meeting to meeting. Um it was it was a very organic and collaborative effort. um even to the very last tweak that
014we made on our calendar coming from a teammate um you know that had been a participant but really kind of brought the whole thing home on our third meeting um just a few weeks ago. Um, so I just I want to spend some time that I have just recognizing that this this was an effort that that took a lot from a lot of people and I just want to recognize those people here tonight and maybe some of them are are watching as we stream but but thank you to that committee of teacher representatives from all nine of our schools, two administrative representatives, two support staff representatives, again our uh two members of our board, uh two parent representatives that that spent some time with us, one of whom had to zoom in um with a
015minivan full of young athletes for one of our meetings, but uh still made the meeting. And then of course myself makes 18. So we came together over three meetings um to develop a calendar that I think we are proud of, especially in the face of some very real um restrictions this year that I'll get to in a moment. Um wasn't just the meetings that we engaged in and the and the you know the the feedback that they gain uh going uh back to their buildings after every meeting. Uh we did objectively uh survey out as as many voices as we could get from the community. Our school calendar feedback survey um which was issued from late September to late October was able to we had over 400 um participants that weighed in on that survey.
016So we had a lot of voice from a lot of different stakeholders and and they spoke very loudly to five themes that I'll list here tonight and they were our our five listed out themes. Of course, we used a system that could show us that objectively. Um, at the top of the list was the importance to have a full two week winter break for families. Um, that was not short changed with a half week and then a full week to follow. Uh, that they put a a strong premium on a full spring break week with two full weekends bookending. Uh, they wanted to end school by Memorial Day. They wanted to start school on a shortened week, which our teachers were very glad to hear that everybody understood how hard that can be in that
017first week. And then they did want to kind of acknowledge what has become something of a uh wasn't a thing when I was in public, but this this fall break, right, that we have these days around late uh October that we if we chunk them together, there there seems to be a nice little break at the end of the first quarter. they they recognized our effort uh to put those days together for families and and and applauded our effort to do so. We also heard feedback around conference days and when those would be uh feedback around religious holidays of all types, a strong avoidance and you'll see that in our work. Please no half days came from the community except for that traditional last um day of the year. Uh and then the other thing
018that was very loud uh both within the committee and for those that offered feedback especially at our secondary levels um was to not attempt to get creative for those of us that have that come from the secondary world of learning. Uh that that idea that it that you could come back from winter break and reset that first semester engine and have those two weeks of review and take the final exams right around MLK. That was a non-starter for our committee and we and we did explore it. there there was uh credit to one of our participants that really was looking out for teachers and and just came to find out that the teachers themselves it's really it becomes something of a waste of week because it's just review. It's a week and a half of
019review and exams. So, you're really losing those two weeks anyways. So, our mission was to get final exams done before winter break. And so, what we have for you is a calendar that I think uh meets the demands of what was objectively, you know, the hardest uh year lean into this work. Uh when state law dictates that your school calendar cannot begin any earlier than 14 calendar days before the first Monday in September, aka Labor Day. And when Labor Day for 2026 is on September 7th, you count the days. It doesn't get any later than that, folks. That is the latest Labor Day. And so when we can't start any earlier than 14 days out, we've effectively shaved off a week already in August that we otherwise would have been able to play around with,
020have kids return. And so when you have a a legally bound late start and you mix in this idea around we do need to to to get final exams administered before kids leave for winter break. Um that that posed a challenge. And so what you'll see in the calendar, I'll just speak to and these were questions that came uh my way around kind of a a winter break that you know gets started on the 23rd on a Wednesday and and kind of bleeds a little bit into July. Well, again, at the top of our list, families in Kirkwood really spoke about having those two weeks with their families. We recognize, you know, that second week of of of January that folks are going to be coming back um to work, but um kids will be
021coming back to school than that Thursday, uh January the 7th. And so, I just wanted to explain the why of why that dips so deep into the month of January as we're meeting the demands of that holiday, but trying to squeeze as many instructional days out of that first semester as we possibly could. And so, when you see that, that is what that is about. components of our calendar uh that I would say is that we were required this time around to add an additional instructional day. That was a state statute that this board responded to in February of last school year when it was added to policy IC2 um that we will be um attending a minimum of 169 uh student days. So again, that was prompted by state statute, something, you know, was
022optional with a monetary incentive for districts last year and some mid-year changes um throughout the St. Louis region. But for us, we went in knowing we needed to add that 169th day for kids while still keeping the work day or excuse me, the work calendar for teachers at 190. Um what uh fringe benefit that came out of adding that 169th day for for students is that did push us over the threshold that we now have, as you saw in the memo, we do have six standalone builtin inclement weather days. The old calendar only actually had five when you started to shave those uh minutes off. You need to meet uh 1,080 total minutes built into your calendar, but once you take a snow day, you got to take that time off. And we didn't have
023enough time built into this last year's calendar to have six full days. It was actually five. And then we would have needed to start using AMI with this calendar. We get the full sixh before we to to start getting creative around AMI days. So, those are some details. Um I I will open it to questions. A couple other questions that came my way just to answer those proactively. Um there are two uh kind of standalone staff development days. Those are election days. Those are, you know, that we we are polling places and so we want to honor the fact that we have a civic duty to to remain open to our voting population on those days. Um I think that the trend definitely explored it a little bit within the committee. Is it time to
024kind of consider the idea of, you know, voters and kids intermingling, but that there was not an appetite for that amongst the 18 folks that that represented the committee this year? Definitely something we could explore next year, but those are those two standalone days. We did try to to chunk other PD days around breaks as best as we could. Um, and again, the idea around trying to start things earlier, um, you know, to bring students back earlier in January, just not possible. Labor Day being literally as late as it possibly calendarly could be on the 7th. So that it was just, you know, it was one of those years. It really is the year um that we'll ever be this late again. You know, when we get into Labor Days that are on the 1,
025second or third, we can we can recoup that week in August and kind of get back to some normaly there. But um this is as late in in the game as we can start, which pushes us later into January. The good news is Memorial Day is as late as possible as well. So that all evens out. But um those are some of the details. I'll I'll open uh open up to questions. >> Thank you, Miss Andrews. >> I would just say great job on your your first um time leading this committee. And I would also just say, as you said, it was a fantastic committee. It really um is a great group of of individuals who just come together and and have such a great respect and working relationship with each other and really um
026put a lot of work and a lot of thought into this calendar. >> Dr. Shern, >> I was trying to do the math myself, but I was just trying to You still have the same amount of PD days? >> We do. Yes, there are eight total full staff uh development days on the calendar and that is the amount of days that we we had this year. Yes. So, we did keep those eight people. >> Mr. Cathy. >> No, thank you for your leadership. Um and thank you publicly to all the the members of the committee. Um I do just want to make the point that it was incredibly thorough. Uh naturally there will always be questions about why this why that as we get into the next school year. I can guarantee everybody that this
027thing was looked at from every possible angle. There was no stone no stone left unturned. So appreciate your leadership and thank you >> I just want the record to show that I'm really annoyed that our local school district start day is dictated by Jefferson City. That's it. Miss Neon, >> thanks. Thanks for all the explanation of going through the the various questions that were raised in advance. Um, just want to um talk through with that January 7th start in the new semester. >> Um, are there opportunities that the school district offers for care? I'm thinking the adventure club. Is there adventure club available in the winter break for families who maybe have to go to work that Monday the 4th and then kids don't return until the 7th. Is that something that's available or No,
028is that only in the summertime? >> Okay. Okay. I don't know if there are any other programs or anything happening over winter break. No, >> not not that this committee explored admittedly, but definitely back to you if there were any other opportunities that I was aware of. >> That's okay. Thanks. I just want to make parents aware of it if there are opportunities like that because I imagine that can be a struggle for some parents um who work during that time frame. So, thank you. >> I will just reiterate, thank you. I know that this was complicated this year to get everything to fit in. And um as a former high school teacher, thank you for having first semester end before winter break. I taught plenty of years when that was not the case. So
029that's really good. Um okay, we need to vote to approve the um calendar. Please raise your right hand and say I if you approve it. >> I thank you. Motion passes. Thank you very much. >> Thank you. >> Next up, this is just public information, superintendent and board reports. The >> No, the coffin enrollment report. No, not yet. >> I wouldn't miss >> No, no, no. Don't get your hopes up. >> I mean, I'm happy to step away. [clears throat] I I realize I use the wrong title slide anyway, so I have to go back and fix that at some point. Uh, I'm happy to present uh the official enrollment projection report is the phrase that I should have added in there. Uh, typically Dr. Coffron is the one presenting this. U we've used his
030data in his report which I know the board has access to as well. So I will go through uh the slides with everybody. Just as an overview uh the enrollment projection study completed by Dr. Coffron the data that's used and I know a question came in about this is live birth data and cohort survival rates. And so just to explain those two things the live birth data is data we get from the uh public health department. It's incomplete at the moment because obviously when we get it we get it as of September 30th. there's still October, November, December. So what Dr. Coffron does is that the following year goes back and corrects that year. Um when it comes to adding those additional births that are in those date uh in those in that data, then
031what cohort survival rate is is it really looks at what percentage of our enrollment comes back or is the same year after year after year. And you want to have 1.0 because that means 100%. For us, if you look at some of those cohort survival um charts, which I'll show you a slide of, in some of our grade levels, we actually are higher than 100%. We're like 1.01, 1.02, which means that as as an example, one year's enrollment might have been 85 students and then the next year it was 86. So, it actually went up. That does take into account some of the transfer information. The other data piece that's used on those projections is our capture rate. So, there's lots of phrases that sound really bad when you say them out loud between cohort
032survival and capture. Um, but the capture rate really looks at what percentage of births in the in the district then turn into enrollment. Now, that's not a onetoone correspondence, meaning we don't track identification numbers or anything, but if there's 400 births, do we have 400 kindergarteners? And and sometimes that number is higher or lower. Um, and you'll see kind of our historical data around that when we do our projections and utilize these numbers later. There's multiple lines on that chart. Some of them are woo way up here and some of them are way down here. We have used the mid-series projection for years in our staffing discussions and then the five-year average. And the five-year average literally is the five-year uh pieces of data previously that are averaged out. You'll see that those are really
033close to each other, the mid-series and the five-year average. They do encompass current district boundaries. So that means that anybody who currently lives outside of the district, be it staff uh members, children or sometimes they're homeless students or students who participate in the VIC program, they're not a part of these numbers. So if you were to compare this to our official enrollment numbers, they are slightly different because of the the um projections here used based on geocoding. We also are not able to take into account for kindergarten enrollment projections only. take into account any moveins that might happen when somebody has a three-year-old or a four-year-old before the kindergarten year. Um, that is taken into account with the following years because we can look at historical enrollment data uh for that. And I used, for
034example, when projecting third grade enrollment, the actual second grade enrollment is used and it continues to roll up that way. So, what did Dr. Coffron do for us? always updates the Kirkwood base map, which means there's a picture in there about everything being geocoded, and we just make sure that all the streets are still aligned with that geocoding map. Obtain the student records from September 25, and build out those class attendance cohorts, code to the kindergarten, and geocode and summarize live birth data, and then develop K12 enrollment projections for a five-year projection. So, one of the things the district has done for at least my entire time here, um, and previously to me as well, is that an enrollment projection comes to the board every year. Dr. uh, Rumpus can tell you that not every
035district does that. Some do it every five, some do it only when they think they need bond issue. So, the fact that the board continues to look at this gives us the most accurate projections that we can get on a year-on-year basis. Um in fact the projection for this year's IND district enrollment was one off of what we actually landed on. So pretty pretty strong uh projection there. You'll see data and and methods throughout. But what you can see on the left is the uh geo code and birth counts by kindergarten attendance area and why it says 2030 and 2029. That's when they would enter into kindergarten which seems forever off but um it's not. Yeah, I know. So, and then you can see on the right side just the residential birth locations for those
036that were born in 2024. 2025 is not finished yet, so that will be coded next year. There's always a year a year later. Um, you can see that the numbers for births are relatively similar year in and year out for those last few years. Tilman, we do split up and and show the board specifically and the public the knifer north split. And you can see that for these next couple years, it's heavier on the north side than on the Kiper side. Um, I can tell you having done the boundary adjustment work that it's usually a 60/40 between those two buildings, and they kind of flip-flop as to which one is the 60 and which one's the 40. So, at some point, that will likely uh even out. that is very small on the screen on
037the one side, but basically that's a geo code and count by attendance area uh using the current enrollment and those projections that go up. And so um again, you'll see that those numbers trend towards the downward trend whenever we see our enrollment projections moving forward most heavily on the kindergarten side. uh because the kids that are in third, fourth, fifth will continue to metriculate up and we'll have sort of you'll see on the charts sort of a middle school bubble and then a high school bubble projected. Um you can also see the residential locations that's by all of St. Louis County. You can see really tight clustering around the Kirkwood School District, but you can also see all the singular dots that are out there as to where we have current students um who are
038who are living. And those might be staff students, those might be students of uh who participate in VIC program, homeless, foster. There are lots of reasons why they may side of the district. Just as a reminder to our community and the board, this is our uh official enrollment number that we have residential. So, we pulled this one specifically because it is just those that live in the district. Uh it's 5590. Just again, as a reminder, enrollment trends for Missouri, you can see, have been trending down uh to the tune of about 20 to 30,000 students over the last several years. And then compared to other districts in the area since 2015-16, while our enrollment trend is going down, we still overall seen enrollment growth since the 2015-16 school year. So you'll see a lot of
039graphs that look like this. Uh so projection info, the projection as the district is continuing to decline. So what you can see on the left side of the red bar that goes up and down are our actual enrollments for those school years. Once the red bar is there, that's this school year. After that, the dotted line that goes up is what's considered the high series. The green dotted line that goes down is the low series. We look at the red or the yellow, which tend to overlap a lot, as the midseries in the middle. There is a snapshot, and that snapshot takes into account a couple other statistical factors, but the mid-series and the five-year average have been pretty spot-on year in and year out with. So, that's what we use our projections. You can
040see that our current enrollment based on uh resident students is 553 or projected to go down to about 5,62. It is a decrease of about 352 students total which on average is about 70 students across all K12 about 70 students. So that's eight buildings. 70 students is give or take nine each building, which isn't as bad as some may think, but that is more clustered at the elementary level. So, we'll see that on some of these charts as we move forward. This is the live birth data and you can see there was a big spike in 2020 um whenever we look at what year they would enter kindergarten. So, if you look at that and you say, well, wait a minute, in 2020 was COVID when that was happening. This is when they would have
041entered kindergarten, not when the students were born. Um, So the the dip that you see around 2025 and 2024, that's the COVID dip there. When it goes from 483 down to 436 and 434, uh you can see that the trend down to 385 with the class of 2028 kindergarten group, but then we start to trend back up. So this this current uh projected birth rate birth rate data is 403 uh for students that are born in the area. How does that compare to our actual enrollment? Well, the birth rate data and the birth numbers are the yellow line that's on top. And you can see how that compares to our actual kindergarten enrollment. Before the red line, um we had some areas where it was very close. That year 2018-19, we had 433 births and
042428 kindergarten students, almost 100% capture rate. That started to separate out a little bit um and peaked kind of in those CO areas and then has trended back in a different direction. Uh but you can see that our kindergarten enrollment since 2022 2023 has taken a decline. Um it does flatten out so that we're at 334 resident kindergartens this school year and we're projected to be about 337 at the end of this 5year cycle. So not a huge change in that kindergarten enrollment even though the birth rate has declined. That again is based on that historical capture rate. Uh but it's still down from a high of 434. So almost 100 student difference um from just 2022 2023 in the kindergarten area. Looking at just elementary projections, you can see again on the left those
043actual enrollments peaked at 2675 and you can see that it dips down with a projected elementary enrollment of around 291 or around 2100 which again is about a 600 student drop from where we had that peak enrollment area there. middle school, you can see a bubble that occurs because the current third, fourth, fifth grade that rolls up are fairly large classes. Um, and so that bubble peaks at around 1350. In fact, it would be our highest ele middle school enrollment in about the last eight or nine years. Um, and then it does see a pretty drastic drop um with the following years with kind of like the current second third grade class as they move through and metriculate up. So, uh, middle school projected to be around 1,220 students, currently at 1303. So, about a
04490 student decrease, but there is at one point where we're up to 1350. So, about a 50 student increase uh along those lines. And that is more heavily on the north side than on the Kiper side, as you'll see in a later slide. High school, because then that middle school bubble rolls up into high school. High school is projected to actually see an an increase in enrollment. um down still from the peak that we had around 1736 which was 2021 2022 uh to be around 1700 students at at kind of the peak between 16 uh 1650 and 1700. So high school will see that up and then what'll happen is as that eighth grade, seventh and eighth grade class that drops at the middle school moves into high school those enrollments will start to decrease
045as well. specifically around kindergarten projections. You can see the actual enrollment over to the left and you can see that the dip again from 2022 23 from 434 down to about 334. So a 100 student dip, but it's looking stabilized for the next several years. So what people may see from that is that we would roughly have the same number of students and potentially the same number of classroom needs as we have this year at the kindergarten level. The next few slides are going to be building by building and this is based on their current attendance zones, not anything that projected for for any difference or any transfers or any additional students that move into that area. So on the left side you'll see total resident enrollment and projection and on the right side it's
046specific to births and kindergarten enrollment for that specific building. Um so it's hard to see a little bit but Kaiser is projected to dip down to around 400 students which from a peak of almost 600 at one point is a pretty significant decrease for Kaiser in particular. Uh you can see that that's kind of uh portrayed by the live birth data. While there is a peak in one year and then it dips down, that overall enrollment as classes move up for Kaiser will still lead it to decrease over the next several years. North Glendale is actually very interesting because in five years it's projected to be exactly the enrollment that it's at currently. Um it's our only elementary school that doesn't see a significant decrease. In fact, you could say that's a fairly flat projection
047for Kais or for North Glendale. And you can see why when you look at the live birth data and look at the number of students that are projected to come in during kindergarten. Their live birth data for Glendale is higher than our other elementary buildings. And that is translating into bigger classes. They also have currently a few grade levels that have over 100 students or near 100 students. So, as those continue to move up, um that will stay fair fairly stable at at North Glendale. Robinson has been uh declining enrollment basically since 2020. Um and you can see that decline is projected to dip down to possibly under 400. Um you can see that the live birth data for Robinson has trended downward uh since the 2020 school year as well. Um but the the
048total enrollment for Robinson has steep decline there as well. Tilman has had a slower decline but is still projected to decline around 400 or right under 400. Part of that again when you look to the right you can see a sharp decrease in the birth and the birth data for kindergarten and the kindergarten enrollment for Tilman. It's been relatively stable for the last several years but there is a slight decline there at the end for Tillman. And then lastly, Westchester, which at one point had a peak of almost 600 students as well, should be dipping down to under 500, between 450 and 500 students, depending on um the number you're looking at. You can see there is a slight uptick. And if you look at the birth rate data, the last couple years for Westchester
049in particular have seen a bit of a rebound um when it comes to that birth rate data, which is still down from the previous uh peaks that we had back in 2018, 2019, 2020, 21. Um, but the Westchester enrollment projection is projected to decrease over time in the 2030 2031 school year. Moving on to our middle schools, you can see that Nifer at one point peaked at 704 students. Uh, is now projected to be right around 600. If you look at the number now, we're around 625. So knifer will be down from from where they stand now and where they were at a high of about 100 students less than they were in the 1920 school year. North we'll see a significant bump. Uh they're currently at 678 and you'll see a peak when the
050big classes come from Kaiser and Westchester in particular uh to 729 students. Um again both of these and all these are are resident enrollments. These do not take into account any staff children or any moveins. um that may occur during that time. But then north once those big classes roll up to the high school will drop down to about 632. So if you're looking between the two middle schools at one point Nifer and North will be about 30 students apart regarding enrollment. So not as far as they will be in the 2028 29 school year where they'll be a big jump to flip back. So 729 for north 621. So about 100 student difference uh between the two buildings for those couple years there. And then as those students move up to the high school,
051high school's at 1611 now, down from a peak of 1736, but projected to be around 1700 um whenever those bigger classes roll up and move into the high school. That 203031 school year will put us back to roughly where we were in the 202021 school year um for those students. But then once those bigger classes graduate out, that number will decrease in 32, 33, 34 after that. So this shows um just an example of midseries projections from K through 12, not building specific, but just as a district total specific. And the way that the charts read out, you can see the year going across. The column in white for 2526 is white just because it is the actual numbers. And then everything after that is projected. Um, you can see there's a birth number on
052top. We have the first several cells are white because we know those finalized birth rate data numbers. The last one, the 2030 31 hasn't been finalized because that's this current calendar year and there's still November, December for students to be born during that time. So those corrections, just so you can see those those changes will be made next year when we have the finalized birth rate data. Um, but you can see that the numbers continue to to grow each year. So, what is interesting about some of the enrollment numbers that we've looked at over time is that historically our kindergarten classes are anywhere from 50 to 70 to 80 students smaller than when they graduate. So, we tend to add students as kids move up through our grade levels. Um, you can see that the
053total K5 number today is 2445. That number is projected to be around 2100 at the 2030 31 school years. So again that's that 335ish student decrease. Middle schools 6 through8 is about 100 students less between two different buildings. And then the high schools shows an actual increase. So our enrollment overall is going to be again about 352 students lower over the next five to six years than we are today. Oops. So this is what I was mentioning earlier when we look at our district cohort ratios. Each one of these, think of it as basically a percentage of students that remain in that grade level. You can see our birth to kindergarten, we average about 83%. So that means that of the number of births in the Kirkwood School District boundaries, roughly 83% of that number
054ends up attending our kindergarten. What is very interesting is that once they're in our building, those numbers tend to stabilize out. They're usually 99 or 0.98 or 0.97 on up, which means we're retaining the the majority of students who start in our building through through uh high school. And in some cases, we're actually adding students. So, anything higher than a 1.0 means at some point student that that class grew or projected to grow. That's the mid series when we look at those projections. So, when Dr. Coffin gets his numbers and gets the actual data and then applies this multiplier to that. That's where those uh graphs come from. Same thing for the 5-year average. And those are the two that we tend to focus on the most. And if you look across at each one,
055they're relatively similar when you look at those ratios between the mid-series and the 5-year average. So, uh pretty stable numbers for us to look at our actual 5-year average and compare to that mid-series. As we look at staffing, we look at classroom needs, we look at, uh building space, these are the numbers that we focus on. So this year, uh, because I was doing this, I wanted to add just a couple things that could contribute, not saying that they did, but could contribute to decisions that families make when it comes to moving into the Kirkwood School District. So these cohort numbers are specific to people who are either born in the boundaries or who were already in our building. This is a picture that was recently in the Post Dispatch just about how monthly rent
056has changed over time. I was actually somewhat surprised um that you can see that even in the Kirkwood School District and sorry this is all orange colors. I know what next week I know what happens next week but this is one where you don't want to be read I guess. But but you can see that the majority of higher percentage increases in rent has occurred in North County. um in some cases probably taking advantage of of either rent that was already low and people were bumping it up or just the different housing market. You can see the average increase in Kirkwood is around between 8 to 12% of rental increase. Now this this picture does not take into account what that starting number is. So the starting numbers for rent in Kirkwood might already be
057very high and then that number didn't have much of an increase. There's also not as many rental opportunities um in the space. And then when you look at some of the newer construction, um those might have been factored in as well when you build the the condos downtown or there's a new building being built by the performing arts center as well. But across St. Louis County, we're in the lower end of that average when compared to some of the other areas. Where we're not in the lower end is when you look at average sale price for a home. Um I'll show you two different types. This first one is showing just all home types. So that could include single family, multif family, it could include condos that were for sale. The average price of a
058of a home in St. Louis County was just under $300,000. And you can see the average sale price in Kirkwood was just under 500,000. So $200,000 difference um between St. Louis County versus Kirkwood. And you can see the growth over the last five years. Uh if I were to only show you the one year, it was actually about a 30% increase in in sale price in Kirkwood School District. Then when we look at just single family homes, so when we're talking about affordability and opportunities for families to move to the Kirkwood School District, usually those families are are purchasing houses on the lower end of the price scale. You can see that in Kirkwood, we have had on average um a pretty significant price increase in terms of the sales. still well above the St.
059Louis County average. Um but it's even higher for single families. So just to go back when you factor all types of housing just under 500,000 focus just on single family homes right under 571,000. So pretty steep increase uh there. So um right around close to 600. This was taken with the most recent data uh from a real estate real estate site that kind of maps everything out. Other factors that might contribute into affordability for families would include things like mortgage rates, u inventory that's available, and and I just spoke to a mom today who said, you know, I'm looking in the Kirkwood School District and I'm not finding much and and either it's out of her price range or it's out of the area that she wanted to go to or it's a fixer upper
060that she's not wanting to get into. Um, so there are some challenges when it comes to new families moving into the district that might balance out some of that birth rate decrease to keep our enrollments where they're at. Um, but these are just a couple data points that I wanted the board to be aware of. I also want to make sure and clarify. These are not things that go into the enrollment projection. The only things that go into the enrollment projections are birth rate data, the cohort survival rate, current enrollment, and that capture rate. So, it's strictly a statistical piece. Um, we don't look at inventory that's available for housing. Don't look at housing prices. But, I wanted to include these as factors that might contribute to families being able to move into the district.
061These are also these two things, three things are also things that are out of our control as a as a district and as a board. Um, that we can't really tell people how to set rent. And I think everybody knows that when you're in a a very strong school district that performs well, you're a desirable community. housing prices tend to be higher for for communities that people want to move into um because you can ask for more and people will will make that happen. There's also the factor of tearowns and and new construction that happens a lot and those factor into some of these sale prices as well. So, in summary, projecting uh a continued decline in total resident enrollment through 2031, roughly a 6.6% 6% decline between this school year and the 203031 school
062year. Again, it's approximately 70 students per year. On average, 83% of district resident births enter into our kindergarten, but we do a very good job once they're in of of staying in our schools, roughly 100%. Housing sale prices in Kirkwood have increased by 31% over the last five years compared to 11% average for St. Louis County. So that may be a factor that contributes to people's ability to move into the district. Overall, elementary enrollment will continue to decline but possibly level out in the 203031 school year. Overall middle school enrollment will show increases through the 2930 school year and then likely decrease. We say likely because you may have a bunch of moveins high school. In fact, today I was talking to somebody at the high school and they already had four students just today
063transfer mid- semester from private schools into the high school um because of of various reasons, but those transfers in are hard to account for. Overall, high school enrollment will show likely increases through through 2030 31 and then a likely decline mostly because those big classes that are currently in our are our fourth and fifth grade will have worked their way through the system at that point. And then these are best practices and again this is uh borrowing from Dr. Coffron and the reports that he has but the best practices for these uh these processes keep resident student counts by attendance area current with fall enrollment. So that's the presentation that I gave last month with the uh official enrollment the last weekday of September. We keep resident birth data by attendance district or attendance area
064current using the Missouri Department of Health and Human Services. that is that birth rate data. We have to sign off on it. We have to promise to destroy it. It's very confidential lockdown stuff. Um and very interesting with that and then continue to refresh enrollment projections annually using updated birth data and current enrollments. Uh by doing this on an annual basis, we get a more comprehensive picture of where our enrollment projections are and where we're looking at. And it does help with our decision making regarding long-term plans, regarding staffing, buildings, space allocation, all those things like that. Budget helps helps lots of different pieces. And I do want to thank Dr. Coffron for the very comprehensive report uh that he was able to share. I know you guys have access to that and I will
065do my best to answer any questions. >> Miss Neman. >> Yeah, thanks. Really helpful information. Definitely appreciate the for us to look forward. Um it seems from a novice standpoint that that decline is pretty significant. Um that the numbers are really expected to change um for individual buildings and then across the district. I know you mentioned at the end that you use this information for all kinds of decisions or at least kind of thinking forward and planning. Do you mind giving a little bit more detail as to um whether these declines or anticipated declines are currently impacting or how they shape your thinking about whether it's staffing or use of buildings or budget >> more detail would be great. >> And I will openly say that a lot of those are going to be group
066decisions. So I'm pointing to these guys next to me especially when it comes to the the HR department or finance department for looking at what that is because as as Mr. Cook alluded to when you look at state adequacy and funding that comes from the state. Those enrollment numbers allow us to project out budget projections um allow us to look at where staffing allocations need to go. Um I know the board in particular has really explored class size and class sizes throughout the elementary school. This does give us a perspective and an opportunity to look at what those class sizes could be and what the needs are based on staffing situations. Um, I know that last year the board heard roughly the same number that we're looking at a 350 student decline and and hiring
067freezes and all kinds of other discussion and yet we still added three positions at the elementary for class size allocation. Um, and I think that was the right call. And so these gives us an idea when we look at the day-to-day operations of do we have enough teachers? Are we looking at who may or may not be retiring? Are we looking at attrition? Do we have um guidance from the board on what you guys want to look at regarding class sizes and how those projections play out versus the number of teachers that we currently have? >> I I think that last point, Dr. Bailey, is important that 50 to 70 students each year seems like a lot, but we have 129 sections K5 throughout our five buildings. And so, um you know, it'd be great
068if it were 22 students in second grade at one building that left and we could say great, we would eliminate one classroom teacher. But that's not how the numbers play out. The other thing that is interesting that back to the information that Mr. Cook shared, um, when you look at that change over five years, if we realize that and we were fully reliant on the SAT, it's about a $2.5 million reduction in our budget. Um, we are reliant on our local property tax. So, in our situation though, really, it's only about a half a million dollar change in the budget. So, a while you think five um that number of students, you'd have to eliminate a lot of positions. Um we need to be mindful of it and always making decisions, but it's not quite
069as drastic as it sounds. >> Thank you for that insight. Um one other quick question. Um appreciate you bringing in the housing kind of rental and average house prices and really trying to anticipate or think through other factors that might affect the enrollment um beyond live births. Um, I'm thinking that other economic factors might come into play, right, with students transferring either deciding to go to private schools or transferring back from private schools or um people being able to afford the rent or housing in certain locations or having to move away because they can't. Um, does that even though that's not part of Dr. Catherine's estimations, do you think about that or include that when you're thinking through? There was a time when I thought about that way too much and I will say um
070several meetings and and lots of different pieces. Um yes and no. And so because our our attendance areas are so set the way that they are um what we tend to look at is is there any available housing in there to give us rough projections as to where people might go. As you can imagine there's not a ton of just open land to build on or open spaces to build on. So, a lot of it comes down to so what do we anticipate in terms of possible tearowns or possible rebuilds? Um, we haven't seen a ton of change when it comes to new construction that is residential in construction outside of some of those apartment complexes. A couple years ago, when we took a look at how those apartment complexes and those those luxury condo
071areas might have an impact, we learned that we really don't have a lot of students that move into those buildings. But what they tend to do is open up for people who live currently in Kirkwood are tired of cutting their grass and dealing with that and they move into those buildings and now that opens up a house that a family could potentially move into. Um that's why I think that we see give or take we looked at historically our kindergarten classes grow from the time they go from kindergarten till senior year by about 75 to 80 students. And so when we project that um upper upper elementary is probably going to be a little bit bigger than when they're at lower elementary, we can factor that in. The challenge is that at the current moment
072our class size also increases at the same time. So what might have needed four sections at kindergarten, even though it grows, might still only need three sections at fifth grade. Um and those are factors that that we look at. Um and lastly, we haven't done kind of a heat map of rent affordability in the Kirkwood school district. I'd be interested actually to look at that. That may give us an idea of where potential future housing could be. Um, what I can tell you from the phone calls that I get in my district or sorry, my office is we have a lot of people that are trying to find lots of different ways to come into the Kirkwood School District and and either by moving here or by moving in with somebody or by other ways.
073And so, lots of folks are are definitely still looking for how they can come to us. >> That's great. I'm glad to hear you keep your finger on the pulse of what's happening across the housing in the area. Um because I know there are lots of changes happening. So, >> thank you, >> Miss Heburn. >> Yeah, I wanted to echo that. I think in the past when we've looked at the enrollment data, it has felt like a little bit of a gap and I know it's not as hard data as the birth rates and the cohort data and the capture rates and all that, which is a lot easier to, you know, make these enrollment projections. And clearly the data we've used has been very accurate. But when you're living in Kirkwood and I mean
074I think all of us can speak to it is definitely the real estate situation is a major factor. We all see you know these houses that have you know one lovely older lady move out and then that house gets, you know, expanded on or replaced and then a family of five moves in. and you know anecdotally you know you see those things and and you know we know how desirable it is to be there. So I just appreciate some acknowledgement in this to you know so that we know that that's just some nuance and some context in it. So even though it may not factor in with as much hard data I just appreciate that it's part of the conversation. >> Yeah and I can say that when we've looked at those will be considered
075our moveins the the transfer ends and so why we continue to look at the transfer numbers and and the in-n-out piece is because of those those factors. Um, why I included the price is that some of those may get harder and harder for younger families to take advantage of. Um, but at the same time, it hasn't yet. So, we've seen folks that have been able to purchase that house and in many cases tear it down and put something else in its place that barely fits in the property line. But, it it's what there was a definite trend. If you go down Rose Hill, for example, 20 years ago versus today, it's very different. Um, look, there's a street right near I can't remember the name of the street right near Tilman, but it's like every
076house has been replaced down there. I would not be surprised if when you're driving down towards Westchester, there's a lot of, you know, two, threebedroom houses there, and then you see three or four of them in a row and then you see a tear down, new construction. And I'm going to guess at some point those will be potentially sold and done the same thing. So, what I've learned in my time here is that if you see what looks to be a threebedroom, two-b house, that's a candidate for what will soon be a fivebedroom, fourb house at some point with a tear down because that's what's happened. Um, and usually if you're building a house in the Kirkwood School District, you're probably bringing your kids with you. You're not doing that after your kids have aged
077out. So, we do need to keep an eye on that. Um, and so we can keep working with the city of Kirkwood on are there any new permits being pulled, any housing pieces that go up? Um, but the good news is that we know we've got some room to fit those kids in based on our current enrollment, projected enrollment um, with our current facilities. >> Yeah, I'm certainly not concerned about an enrollment boom or anything. And and I think these projections have been very accurate, but I just like knowing it's part of the conversation because in the past when we've had these presentations, it has felt like kind of a missing piece because when you're talking to people, it's definitely one of the things that comes up. Um, I mean, I know of at least
078two new subdivisions being built up, you know, in the Robinson area and, um, like you said, there's streets where it's small, there's like three big ones and you're like, well, this is just, you know, the clock is ticking. >> Um, so anyways, I appreciate that. And then I just wanted to say that um I thought you did a great job of presenting Dr. Coffin's data. So, thank you very much for >> doing it. >> Mr. M doesn't know that joke. I'll have to fill her in at some point. >> Dr. Shern. >> No, I'm good. Thank you, >> Miss Andrew. >> Um, so to what um, Miss Neman and Miss Heburn had talked about with the housing at one point, we did do a housing study and so that housing study and I think it
079might have been before your time, Dr. Butler. >> You stuck with it >> and Dr. before Dr. at least I need to. Um, so anyway, we did a housing study and so it's on board decks. I can try to locate that and really it looked at the types of housing that we have and and kind of determined like how likely um a house would kind of turn over and that kind of thing. And so >> yeah, we'll have to look to see. I know that a few years ago we also did something with um the age of a student in a building versus just the birth rate piece and it wasn't quite as um strong connection as what we see with birth rate and just rolling up the enrollment. Um and also the challenge was
080that we were looking at well an eight-year-old could be one grade or another grade depending on what month of the year they were born. So, it was hard to line it up exactly, but that was based on um tax data that was reported and pulling that information. But the housing market in Kirkwood is certainly one that um doesn't seem to struggle with buyers that are out there. I think where the struggle is is not just inventory that's available, but inventory that's affordable for some to be able to come into. So, >> so the other thing that I just always like to kind of make sure that we're aware of is that the difference between the number of students that are born and the number of students that are coming. Um that we have to be
081ready um in case those students who >> are are um you know born here but may not be choosing to come here. But we need to be able to be ready ready for them. And so that's why um it's so important that we continue to to monitor this and and do this. >> You're correct. Yeah. That if if that 17% that's not coming to Kirkwood decided one year to come to Kirkwood, we have to have the space and availability for that. You're correct. >> Thanks. >> Thank you. Um Dr. Billy, and and one thing that I think will be interesting talking about the housing and everything, I know um a lot of the um high-end apartments and condos probably aren't familyfriendly, but there's a new housing development going in over on Filillmore um where the
082public works area was and they were talking about, it's just what I've read, um 200 residences, and some of them are almost going to be like standalone Okay. >> Homes or attached homes. They're not all going to be big tall things. So, I think that will be interesting because that could be a way for a young family to get into Kirkwood >> and um send their kids to our schools. I will say that in some districts, one benefit of not having large tracks of land where a big developer can come in is that we haven't had to talk about the word tiff in a very, very long time. And having been in other districts where um there was going to be a large uh tiff available to a developer and the school district was like,
083"Whoa, whoa, whoa. You might be adding 300 kids to our enrollment and zero dollars to our to our uh revenue." Those are challenges that we haven't had to to face, but I'll go check that out. I haven't I haven't heard about that new development um that's there. So very interesting. >> And there's one more thing and this I have no idea about but where pair hospital was >> on Barrett Station that's going to be developed into something else and that could be some real prime real estate. >> Yeah, absolutely. >> That's Kirkwood schools. That is the very boundary of >> Yeah, there's some unbalanced. >> I know because I knocked on doors. >> I was Yeah. No, I was going to add to your point and basically what we all have been talking about with
084um the housing situation and now that I know this year there's been a um more of a reconnection with city of Kirkwood like Miss Neman's been going to meetings. So maybe there's an opportunity for conversations around just like our schools and our needs and how um you know pricing like there's things that they can do to possibly help make it at least >> afford feasible for you know to ensure that our schools remain um diverse. [laughter] >> Thank you Dr. Bailey. Dr. Dr. Rumpus, did you have anything for this >> future events? We have Okay. Yeah. Okay. Sorry. Sorry. Um, this Wednesday, Kirkwood School's community conversations at Pioneer Bakery from 8 to 10. It would be great to see everyone there. Next week is Turkey Day spirit week. We all know what that means. Uh
085the Turkey Day game is next is a week from Thursday, but sat is it Friday or Saturday night that the boys play down in Farmington? Saturday. So, um that could have some fun impacts on the Turkey Day game. Go Pioneers. Um, we have uh meetings on December 8th, work session. December 15th is the business meeting and the board candidacy filing notice is also up. The window begins December 9th, 2025. And the strategic planning survey is open online through tomorrow and maybe a day or two longer. Um so especially encourage your friends and neighbors who don't have kids in the schools to fill that out. Um because that's a voice that's very hard for us to get. And with that we will adjourn and go back into closed for personnel. We need a motion for that.
086>> So move Kathy. >> Miss Nean. >> Miss Hern. >> Yes. >> Mr. Kathy. >> Yes. >> Dr. Shern. >> Yes. >> Miss Andrews. Yep. Miss Motika. Yes.