Board Meeting

001Good evening. Okay. We'll go ahead and call this meeting to order. If you all please join me, stand for the flag slope. >> Ready? Begin. >> I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the republic for which it stands, one nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all. >> Wonderful. Well, thank you very much everyone and welcome to 2026 and our first board meeting. It's great to be here with all of you. Um, I'll go ahead and begin with roll call at this time. Uh, I am present. Miss White, Miss Bibbo is not present. Miss Hunter, Mr. Flity, our superintendent, Mr. Shoemake. Awesome. for public comment for items um that are not on tonight's agenda. This item is placed there for the purpose to give our public

002the opportunity to speak to a subject. Um we do have a two-minute clock that will countdown on the screen, but based on the Brown Act, the board of trustees cannot comment on items that are not on this evening's agenda, but we can refer those to our superintendent and Miss cabinet. for items that are on this evening's agenda. I can go ahead and point out at that time um when the best opportunity to speak is. But that being said, this evening's agendaized item is a board presentation. I'll turn it over to our superintendent. >> Uh good evening, Miranda. Great to see you. Thanks for being here this evening. Miranda was uh was unable to join us up until a few I don't know a day ago and her schedule got moved and she's able to join

003us tonight, which we're really excited about. We've received this presentation as a at the cabinet level and Miranda does a great job. Just to kind of set the table for tonight. Um, as you know, Miranda's with FM3. They conducted the survey for us two years ago and she shared that data with us and it helped us uh navigate the an eventual decision or lack of decision on proceeding with the bond. Um, based on our conversation, we've engaged with FM3 again and Miranda to do another survey this year to help inform us. Uh, tonight is intended really for us to receive the results of that survey. I know you've each you've all seen it. Ryan is going to be able to give uh provide some context and some layering to that that um uh is exceptional

004compared to what our team could do. You do have a matrix uh there in front of you also. That's also to help guide through some of the it's it's reflective of what you're going to hear tonight in the PowerPoint and some of it is just just some um thinking that I'd like to get from you. So, no need to put your name on the matrix, but I would as you're going through and you're just kind of um indicating where you think we might be. I'd like to collect that data. It'll inform our next um board discussion related to this item. Um Miranda is going to present plenty of time for questions. Miranda, I think um if you're going to be okay if they ask while we're presenting. >> Yes. >> Great. And then um so

005ask questions and then we'll engage in a conversation afterwards. And then really the next steps on this, we're not going to do any type of vote tonight. There's not many action or anything like that. It's really just for us to receive some data um which is eerily similar to two years ago and uh for the uh cabinet here to listen to the conversation that you have amongst each other. But then again, I'll collect that uh matrix um and then we'll determine what the kind of the next steps are. So Miranda, I'm going to kick it off to you. I don't Do you need to share with us or do you want us to advance the slides on our end? We we're prepared to do either way, whichever is easiest for you. >> Uh I just

006sent a request to share screen, whichever works for you guys. >> Okay, we'll do that since that gives you control of the situation. And thank you and welcome again, Miranda. >> Thanks for having me. Apologies for not being able to be there in person this time around. U my name is Miranda Everett. I'm a partner at FM3 Research. We're a public opinion research and strategy firm with offices up and down the West Coast that uh partnered as as uh the superintendent mentioned with you all just a I guess it was a little under two years ago to conduct a survey on uh the potential feasibility of a bond measure. Um what we found here um just to kind of dive into the the highle results before we get into the nitty-gritty details um is a

007challenging but not impossible path to approval. something that looks very similar to what we saw in 2024. Um, and I think what's notable about that is that, um, I can't say the same for many other clients across the state. Uh, in many ways, these last year, year and a half, two years have been a lifetime. Um, uh, increasing worries about cost of living, about the tax burden, things like that. Um, those were headwinds for you all in 2024 and are, uh, in 2026, 2025, end of 2025 rather, uh, as well. Um but there is a potential path to uh approval with the support of a strongformational campaign. So let me start by talking about our survey methodology. This was conducted November 12th through 20th of 2025. So just before Thanksgiving. Um this was done using

008our dual mode approach. So we contacted folks by landline, cell phone, email, and text message just about every way we know how. Uh we have 420 total interviews represented here and just about 5% margin of error. Um we'll also show uh as we go some comparisons to that 2024 data so you can look at how things have changed or in some cases have not changed um in those months in between. So starting with the big picture context um one thing to to note is that there are lots of parents and grandparents among your voter pool. 71% currently or in the past or future have a child or grandchild in the district. So, lots of people with that kind of direct connection to the work that you do. But important to note that there's another third,

00934% who say they don't have that kind of connection. So, just knowing that uh the the kind of population we're talking about here is your registered voters. You're likely to participate in November voters, um not parents and grandparents. So, a little bit of a different population here. Um so, one question we asked is whether people have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the school district itself. You can see we have our January 2024 results as well as our November 2025 results. Almost two years between the two, but a lot of consistency. 63% with a favorable view uh in 2024, 66% in 2025. Statistically, no difference at all. And what's notable here is that 33% have a very favorable view at the very top of the scale that we gave them. So, that's a a number

010that's pretty um positive compared to some other uh clients I've I've uh worked with and something to really um pat yourself on the back for staff and board. We also asked folks about the quality of education in the district and that was something we asked about both in January 2024 as well as November 2025. Again, statistically no difference between these two results. They're good in both cases. um twothirds saying that the quality of education is either excellent or good in the district, 28% going as far to say uh that the quality of education is excellent. So, um yet another sort of positive uh data point for your district. Now, notably here, uh we asked folks about whether the school has the school district has a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need,

011or no real need. Now, this is a question we asked kind of absent the mechanism, the amount, the actual specifics of the bond measure. Just do you see the need out there in the community? And I think this is kind of job number one if you were to move forward with a bond measure is to lift this number and help people sort of understand the need. You see just 51% see a great or some need for additional funding. Just 19% see a great need for additional funding and fully 29% say they don't know. Um so there's there's room for improvement there. there's room for folks to get a better sense and a better understanding of why you might make this ask to the community. Um so two other questions we asked um that just saw

012overwhelming agreement. Um that was a it's important for us to invest in our schools for the benefit of future students. 90% agreement with that. Um hard to disagree with in fact only 8% did. And then good schools maintain property values. That's something that folks also broadly agree with. 87% agreement, 59% strong agreement. And both of those uh figures are statistically no different than what they were about two years ago. So let's turn to views of the ballot measure itself. We provided folks with the language of a potential measure, that sort of 75word run-on sentence that everyone sees before they check yes or no on their ballot. Um, this was built based on what we had pulled in 2024 as well as some of the items in that that scored especially well. We wanted to make

013sure we're reflecting the things that voters have already told us are important to them um back at them. Excuse me. And our initial response here is support from 57%. So that is just over the 55% uh vote threshold for school bond measures in the state. Um taking into account our survey's margin of error um that leaves basically no room for for uh movement. What's notable here is 12% are undecided. So more than one in 10 are unsure of their vote. Excuse me. Um so this is why we say sort of a cautious optimism uh for your district. you're starting in a place where you have support from 57% but you need 55% to pass and there's just not a lot of wiggle room there. Uh we do have some demographic breakouts. Um so looking at

014this in a little more detail, we see men are slightly more supportive than women. Um and we also see seniors and voters under 50 are slightly more supportive than their counterparts ages 50 to 64. Excuse me. uh by party, by geography, and by their connection to the district through children or grandchildren. You can see some some significant differences in some cases. 76% of Democrats in the district say they would support a measure. 39% strongly support it. 52% support from independents and even 48% support from Republicans, which is remarkable. I I very rarely see that number. Um it's it's difficult given the uh makeup of the district. you don't have quite as many Democrats as many other California school districts do to kind of run up the score in terms of the uh demographic breakout. Um

015but seeing that broad support across party lines um is is notable. Um you do see stronger support in the Shingle Springs zip code than some of the other zip codes. Um but that's still above a majority in all areas of the district. Um and then notably the folks who don't have a child or grandchild in the district are just a little bit more supportive even than those who do. Um, so it's not necessarily just parents and grandparents driving support. Um, there are some folks outside of that more direct community who see the need. [clears throat] We asked folks to tell us if they were voting yes, a few word in a few words of their own, why uh, and then rolled those up into categories you see on this slide. 41% say their schools are

016aging, outdated, need repair. So 41% of our yes voters are telling us they see that need. 37% offer just a more general sort of sense of, you know, it helps the schools, I want to support education, uh something that's a little less about that specific bond measure need. Um, and then you can also see 13% uh highlighting the investment in student safety. And you can see a few examples of things people said in their own words on this slide here. Um so you can see here people mentioning safe and good learning facilities. We want the best school district. Um costs may be more when delayed or deferred. Um funds might be taken away at the federal level. Uh variety of different ration. We ask the same question of no voters. What's motivating the reason that

017you would vote no? Um, and for most of them, 36% [clears throat] they said taxes are too high already. They're concerned about uh the level that they're already paying. 25% believe [clears throat] that the district should be using resources that they already have more effectively. That's something we hear in a lot of different places, not just your district. Um, and then a lack of trust in government broadly or the district specifically. 15% mentioned bonds as a mechanism uh specifically. That's a little bit higher than we see in some other communities. So the folks are a little bit more aware of that mechanism piece. Um, but I think the the big takeaway here is that the opposition to new taxes is what's driving a lot of this opposition and and that's not uncommon. You can see

018a few examples of things people said in their own words on this slide. So, we also wanted to look at voters's priorities uh for the measure funding and also how to construct a measure that reflects um their uh desires for accountability and transparency. Um so, one thing we did uh is ask people about the annual property tax amount per $100,000. We asked them if they would be willing to pay [clears throat] willing to vote yes uh at $30, 23, and $16. Each time we asked, we kind of moved down the the list in order. Um and here you can see um there is some significant price sensitivity in the district. Uh 59% are willing to pay or willing to vote yes on a measure that is $16 per $100,000 of assessed property value. Uh but

019just 50% say the same for almost twice as much at $30. So there is price sensitivity. Um, and you do see that lowering that amount is helpful at broadening the base of support closer to that 55% that you need. >> Miranda, can I ask a question on this? And I'm sorry I didn't ask this. We've met. >> Um, when they're asked that question 30 23 16 that's in that's in sequence. So >> yeah, >> my first response is no way. >> Oh well maybe. Yeah, that sounds better. Mhm. >> on the bond, they're not going to have that opportunity. It's just going to be if we if we if the board was just to say it's 16. There's unless we did anformational campaign. Oh, I guess what is the implication of um or I don't

020even know if there's an answer to this, but you're just your professional opinion on when we ask things in sequence and they get progressively better. I think just naturally people go, "Yeah, I can get there." Versus we don't pres pro provide them with we don't share in the bond. We were thinking about 30, but then we went to 23 and now we're at 16, you know, like does that make sense? >> Yes, definitely. >> A great job asking question. >> No, definitely. Uh there is definitely an effect, a kind of psychological effect with the the sort of discounting that we're doing. Um I think the fact that we see I mean there are some communities where this number doesn't really move support at all. So I think there is some real price sensitivity here. Um,

021but I don't know that necessarily chopping the bond in half is going to actually raise support by nine points. I think that's something that could be a little bit overstated by the way that the surveys kind of had has to be structured. >> Thank Thank you. >> Yeah. [clears throat] Uh, another element of this bond, and this is a new question we asked this year, was whether they if they knew that every neighborhood school would receive a guaranteed share of bond funding for a priority project, would they be more or less likely to support the measure? And 48% said they'd be more likely to support a measure that included priority projects for every school, [cough] and just [clears throat] 6% said they'd be less likely to. What's notable here on the the right hand side,

022um this chart here, um the undecided voters, uh on this bottom row, 65% of them say they're more likely to support a bond that includes a priority project for every school. So, that's another potential element that could be really helpful in anformational campaign, especially for those 12% or so of folks who we really need to to bring toward a yes to get a successful measure passed. >> [clears throat] >> So, we also asked folks to tell us uh how important are potential individual projects and provisions for the bond measure, extremely, very, somewhat or not too important. Um, you can see at the very top of the list, the most important uh sort of way of spending money is requiring that all funds are spent locally. That is more important to folks than uh sort of

023how the bond dollars are spent in the classroom. 59% say that's extremely important to them. 81% call that extremely or very important to them. I think that's a really key finding for us and something we're going to see a little later on in theformational themes uh emerged again as well. Uh ensuring every school gets a share of funding to address their needs. So it's again that kind of concept maybe of priority projects or that every school gets some upgrades and some repairs. 73% calling that extremely or very important. Attracting [clears throat] and retaining high quality teachers with improved facilities. That's important to 72% and fully 46% called that extremely important the very top of the list. And then some basics like repairing roofs, upgrading fire safety systems, and just repairing school schools more generally. Um

024also important to seven and 10 or more. Becoming eligible to use state matching funds. That's another sort of fiscal um piece of the puzzle. Um and is also something that resonated pretty broadly. Broadshares also value improving school safety and security. Uh water and sewer systems, imu emergency communication systems more specifically when it comes to security and then providing classrooms that meet modern academic disabled access and technology standards. Um so here you can see different ways of describing the ways we would use the funds that are important to uh shares greater than the share needed uh to pass a bond measure at 55%. So all of these things are great ways to talk about the investments ways that really resonate with your community. Relatively less urgent priorities, and this is just relatively, um, include things like

025improved energy efficiency, um, energy efficient lighting, air conditioning, heating and windows, air filtration, and portable classroom repair, uh, replacement rather. Um, each of those things is important to, uh, about half or fewer. Um, and you can see those shades shades of blue. It's 80% or higher in most cases. It's just that the darkest shade of blue is less uh broad because it's just less of a high priority for folks. So, sort of in a a relative sense, um, these are things that are valued with in less intensity than the things we showed you on the first two slides. So next we wanted to provide some additional information both in favor of the measure and opposed to it to see how fluid are people's opinions. Are we able to lift above that 55% threshold much further?

026Um are we knocked back a little bit by opposition messaging? What are the individual themes that may move voters one way or another? Um and so the next few slides really run through that exercise in more detail. So [clears throat] here you can see support for the measure overall uh as we add that pattern of information. 57% yes to 31% no. It was our initial vote as I showed you earlier. After information, we're in essentially the same place. 57% yes, 32% no. And then after some negative messaging, we're at 52% yes, 36% no. So that's below the 55% threshold for passage after we model a negative campaign in the community, which may or may not be realistic. Um, but it is something we want to make sure we kind of test in in the sense

027of leaving no stone unturned. [clears throat] And what's notable here is that the definitely no share kind of increases as we add more information. The definitely yes share increases a little bit with positives and then drops back down after negatives. We also like to look at consistency. >> Can I ask you a quick Can I ask you a quick question? >> Yeah. >> On the negative messaging, >> can you define that? Is that a is that a another is that a campaign that is battling us against a ballot? >> Yeah. So, we'll we'll get into the the specifics of it in a little bit here, but essentially it models um yeah, a campaign in the community, op-eds, Facebook comments, kinds of things you might hear out there in the community. Some of them are very

028specific um to the bond measure and some of them are more broad and sort of anti-ax, cost of living, the things that you just might hear no matter what the measure would be. >> Gotcha. >> Yeah. [clears throat] So, we also like to look at consistency of support and I think this is one of the the bright spots in the survey um is that we have 46% of voters who consistently say that they are with us here. Um, so that movement as we move back and forth here is that 28% swing. Um, so obviously a successful effort is going to have to add uh swing voters to that consistent yes slice. Um, but our consistent no share is 25%. It's relatively static. Um, and I think that that's a good sign for us. Who is

029over represented in each of those slices of the pie? Uh, here you can see the demographics. Um, and it is sort of a familiar story for us. Um, it's very partisan. Democrats and younger voters are especially likely to be consistent yes voters. Republicans and older voters are especially likely to be consistent no voters. And then the swing voters, the ones who are undecided or maybe who shift back and forth throughout the survey. Those include non-oleducated women, folks with children at the district currently, um who obviously you have lots of different ways to communicate with and may actually see the need in more detail than other members of the community. Uh younger women, independent and Republican women. Um and then those with less than a college degree. So an interesting sort of demographic set of folks

030in the middle there that would need to receive information um to sort of help uh cement their opinion one way or another. Miranda, on the on the uh swing voters, I see children that currently attend Rescue Union School District. I I imagine that's because my kids are going to be gone by the time this bond happens. Is that because I when I look at the consistent yes, it's my kids are going to be going there, so I'm going to I know it's going to benefit my kid versus these folks might not feel and and it looks like on the consistent no like my kids went there, I don't want to invest any money. Is that a reasonable conclusion on that swing voter? >> I think I think so. I think there's some demographic overlay there.

031You know, the younger voters are more supportive um and they may be the ones who've got younger children at home who aren't quite in the K12 system yet. Um but I think that that um theory is is a good one. >> I I just think it's important for us to as we think about our advertising campaign. I was always I'm thinking about messaging this to our families visiting our current PTOs and I'm not s just watching this I'm not or looking at this I'm not sure if that's the segment if we were to proceed that we would be wanting to invest our time with as as much as this consistent note uh [clears throat] or I guess you're not going to work on the consistent note are you really want to work on that swing

032vote >> y >> okay okay that >> yeah swing votes exactly who you want to be talking to those are the folks who move back and forth they might undecided. They don't they don't fall naturally into one. >> Okay. >> Yeah. >> Miranda, hi. This is Michael. I was wondering if you'd go back. Thank you. Yeah. >> I just had a question about the consistent Yes. zip code shingle springs. >> I correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think we have any of our schools in the zip code. >> We draw from that area, but our 95672, which was not accounted for in this earlier one. I'm not sure if that just there weren't enough people that responded from the rescue community or how did how did that zip because that was on another

033slide earlier. >> Yeah. >> How did that zip code rise above 95 672 not 762? >> I think we had the two sort of more populous ones that we were able to look at in more demographic detail. I could look into the other one you mentioned and see where they would fall. >> Yeah. >> All right. >> Okay. So this should be Shingle Springs Park there. >> Okay. >> Because we do have representation in Cameron Park in rescue. >> If if you're able, Miranda, just offline to go back and look at 95672 because you've given us 9576. That's weird. They're so close. 95762 is our Elorado Hills, but the rescue zip code is 95672. >> Yep. if you're able to. >> Here you go. >> No problem. >> Sorry, I lost my battery on um

034that would be super helpful. >> Yep. >> Thank you. >> Sure. Um so here are some of the positive sort of themes we shared with voters. We asked them individually after each one, is this a very convincing, somewhat convincing or not too convincing reason to vote yes on the measure? And our sort of rule of thumb is a is a a message that is seen as very convincing by 40% or more is something that's highly persuasive. You can see that number running down the lefth hand side here. And there is one message that basically comes right in uh under the wire there at 39%. And that is about repairs. Um children deserve safe, clean schools so they can learn. But our schools need local our local schools need basic health and safety improvements. The oldest

035schools were built in the 50s. This would repair deteriorating classrooms, plumbing, electrical systems, air conditioning, roofs, bathrooms. So, this is really the greatest hits of of those things people told us that they were concerned about earlier on. Um, those basic repairs just helping make it more visual for people in terms of of what the bond funding would be doing physically in the schools. And then just behind that is the local control message um saying every dollar will stay in our neighborhood schools. It can't be cut by the state or federal budget. um that's been increasingly a a more uh resonant message across the state, especially as federal budget chaos and state deficits get more airtime. Um so that idea that we would uh raise our taxes locally, spend the money locally, keep it in the

036community is uh resonating more and more. And then a couple others that are in sort of the second tier uh have to do with safety, matching funds, accountability, keeping teachers in the classroom, and supporting property values. So, a number of other messages um that didn't do quite as well, but still uh resonated uh with 20% or more of the audience. Really, if I were to say, you know, you're trapped in an elevator with somebody for, you know, a couple floors, just the repairs message is the way to go. That's that's the way to really make it obvious for folks what the need is. And here you can see the vary and somewhat convincing combined. Um when you look at those together uh you see kind of a trunch of of messages that are um seen

037as affected by 70% or more. Repairs, local safety, matching, accountability, all of those resonating very broadly. Um but the intensity is really with repairs. So, we also look at this often by party and by those targets I showed you earlier, that pie chart to see what are the themes that are um really standing out to voters by those segments. Um for Democrats in the district, repairs is the number one theme. Fully 52% said that's a very convincing reason to vote yes. For independents, repairs and keeping the funding local is key. For Republicans, uh repairs and local funding are also uh the relatively most effective messages. And then for our swing voters, it's repairs. Um that is kind of the top message for them as well. And here are the negative messages as promised. Um the

038prior bond message was the one that ranked the highest. 39% said this is a very convincing reason to vote no. Um this is the idea that we're paying off a bond measure from 1998. They should pay that off before asking for even more. So, this is not necessarily a message that would be um in uh uh in the ether the way that the idea that taxes are too high or that the district district could just cut waste. Those other messages are um the ones more specifically about bonds might need to have an opposition campaign behind them to be uh really driven and more effective. And here you can see that that waste message is especially kind of a falls flat uh relative to the ones that are more about just taxes in general and uh

039the prior bond and and bonds being the wrong way to fund improvements. [clears throat] The reminder of the prior bond is especially compelling for independents, for swing voters. um that really kind of falls flat with Democrats um but does connect with Republicans as do a number of the other messages as well. So that takes us to conclusions. Um so as we found in 2024, lots of consistency um but again we see that a bond measure faces a challenging path to approval. Um but could be successful with a strongformational effort. You have support that starts at 57% based on measure language alone. That's within the margin of error of the 55% needed for passage, but it's a decent place to start. Lower bond amounts do enjoy broader support with 59% in favor of that $16 per

040100,000. So, that's another lever potentially to look at and and think about as you um design a measure if you choose to do so. Um, and at the same time, there's uh success. Uh, community sees the district very favorably. They rate the quality of education very highly. Um, and at the same time, and maybe you're a victim of this success in a in a in some ways, folks don't really see the need for additional funding for the district. So really, the job is to get out there and and make that that case clear. We see support dip below the 55% threshold after negative messaging, specifically ones kind of about the bond mechanism itself. Um, and then we see that idea of a of guaranteeing funding for a signature project at each neighborhood school is a

041potential boost, particularly for those undecided voters uh who are more on the fence. Top priorities for voters include attracting and retaining high-quality teachers, requiring all funds are spent locally, and ensuring every school gets its share of funding. Things like energy efficiency upgrades or replacing portables, sadly, um, are not as intensely valued by the community. And then we see voters are very receptive to messaging about basic repairs and about the need to keep funds local for our uh benefit of local schools. So ton of information in a short time but happy to take more questions. >> Miranda that was great. Thank you so much. Um Mr. Shimik, do you want to maintain the control of this meeting or >> uh I do have one question um prior on this last slide here. the as as you

042know uh portables are at the top of our list and [laughter] they're at the very bottom. Uh they're low on this. Was there a specific question to portables? I don't recall if there was. Can you can you >> would you mind pulling that back up? >> Yeah, I remember we asked about that in 2024 a couple different ways. So this time we just pulled forward the most effective way to ask about it which was >> There it is. Yeah. replacing outdated portable classrooms with up-to-date permanent buildings. >> Okay. >> And that's not uncommon. I see I see it quite often. I think until you have actually spent time in a portable, you don't really get get a sense of what might be deficient about them. Um and so for a lot of the average voters,

043since they're not in the classroom day-to-day, that might be harder for them to picture than just a leaky roof or, you know, electrical wiring that needs upgrading. >> Gotcha. I I do think just as we're kicking off the conversation piece, too, there's a way to I think message that with we can replace flooring, siding, roofs, and we can do that by building a new permanent building. I >> mean, we're just going to have to the through line to there. >> Um, it it ties into the some of the higher ranking, >> the repairs, the plumbing, >> the roof. >> Yeah. >> Okay. Thank you very much. That was I I just want to capture that because it was on that last slide, but Michael, if you want to facilitate the conversation, I'll leave it up

044to you. That's all right. >> That's great. Thank you so much once again. Thank you for the presentation. We appreciate it and the resources in advance. Let me go and open up some of the trustees and some questions maybe they have at this point. >> Rand, I've got a a couple questions. I'll start with two. Can you talk me can you talk me through the sample size? Uh I assume the sample size that you went after ties to a certain dollar amount that that we paid for the survey. But in your mind, is that adequate for a district of this size? you know, from your experience, is that more than normal, less than normal? I'm just curious. >> Yeah. Yeah. We actually um we targeted 400 interviews. We got a couple more, so 420. Um

045that's very typical for a district your size. And in fact, the response rate in your district was really fabulous. So, we were able to complete the survey in in kind of record time. Um for entire statewide surveys, we often do 600 interviews. So to have a comparatively smaller population have 400 interviews I think is is quite robust and and gives us a margin of error that's helpful for decision- making. >> Okay. Um and then it's probably a harder question for you. The 28% swing, right? We went after it. We'd really have to focus all of our focus there for the most part. From your experience, what percentage of that swing vote goes to a yes versus a no? And I realize there's a lot of variables in that answer. Yeah, it's hard to say. I

046think if you're lucky, about half of them do. Um, and if if you do your job right, not just luck. Um, but, uh, yeah, I think that's why there's some optimism for me there. That 46% consistent yes, plus about half of your swing voters would get you to to the low 60s, which is a comfortable place to be. Um, but of course, that's depends on whether you're able to get the information out there, whether the information is um the kinds of things that resonate with people. It's a very crowded media environment, especially looking at November. So, um there's a lot that's that that is up to scale and luck there. >> Okay. >> Yeah. >> And the $16 per 100,000 assessed value, what size bond would that result in? >> Might be a district question.

047>> We have a feeling for that. >> Is it about half? We got the the higher percentage we had was the $16 per $100,000 assessed value. Any what would that result in from a dollar stand dollar point? >> Yeah, >> we know. >> I think the 78 I I'll [clears throat] have to look it up to confirm, but I want to say it was somewhere around 65 was the full 30, but that was based on assessments from two years ago. >> Gotcha. >> So, um, we can we can pull that information and get back to you. >> Yeah. Just curious. >> You're taking notes, right? >> Yeah. Miranda, one last question here. You started off with a I thought a really strong number that 71% have connection >> to the school district. >> How does

048that weigh in? I mean, a lot of my questions go, how do you how do you weight all this right towards the probability of an approval? But I'm just curious on that one. How, you know, how where do you typically see that number? That sounds really much higher than I expected. >> But I just wanted to get your thoughts. Yeah, it's relatively high and I think part of that is the way we asked the question. We said child or grandchild, past, current or future. So that gives people a lot of ways to say yes. Um it it is higher than I see in some other communities. It may just be that you're a kind of family oriented community in that way and and kids there are kids and grandkids and that's part of why folks

049live there. Um, I think we saw that the differences are really uh a little more about things like partisanship and age um than they are necessarily about their connection to the schools, but there is some of that in the uh kind of segmentation analysis, whereas um the superintendent pointed out wisely. I think the parents of current children may be a little softer on it because they, you know, they're raising kids right now and they're thinking about the cost of living and things like that, but also, you know, their kids are in the schools. So, there's lots of crosscutting uh reasons that people might be thinking they're a yes vote or a no vote. And I think things like partisanship and age uh may be a little more powerful than uh connection to the school. >>

050Gotcha. Thanks, Miranda. >> Yeah, >> Miss White. [clears throat] >> Hi, Miranda. Thanks for being with us tonight. Um I uh I just have a couple questions. Um the margin of error is 5%. Yes. >> Okay. Just wanted to make sure I had that right. And then in your experience um do you find I I would imagine that you um look at the survey results that you get um and then if a district runs the bond then you look at the results and can kind of compare the two just to see how accurate they are. I'm wondering if you see that um support or yes uh is generally higher when people are asked on the phone, hey, would you support this? And there's that I want to be agreeable and yeah. Um and then we

051see when the actual vote comes back and we're doing the, you know, the breakdown and figuring out looking with the actuals um that that that didn't translate. Um, so I'm just wondering [clears throat] what your experience is and I'm just making an assumption that you probably do compare your surveys to uh the results, but yeah, if you could just shed some light on on that, I'd appreciate it. >> Yeah, so that for us there's a kind of a couple outcomes that can happen. We can have a client success, they have a successful measure and our polling was right on. Um, that is the most typical uh sort of outcome uh within the margin of error. There's another outcome where the client overperforms what we had uh said um that's a little less common and can

052happen if there's a really strong positive campaign um that was even more positive than the one that we modeled. Um and then of course there are times where we say this measure looks good and then it eventually fails at the ballot box. Um those are less common I think in part because our our survey results are also informative for decision-making bodies who might say now is not our year, this is not the time. Um, and so there's there's a group of folks who might our polling isn't very strong for that that don't eventually go out. Um, so I think that there's a couple different things at play there. And then when it comes to um trying to recall the second part of the question, um, >> well, it's just Yeah, it just seems to me

053just um knowing human nature. Oh, yes. >> That people tend to say yes. Yes. And so I'm wondering if the data after the election when you're going back and you're doing the um analysis if you find that wow this group fill in the blank the uh male uh Democrats or fill in the blank who said you know they were yes supporting it ended up not I I'm I'm trying to you know we've got a margin of error and I'm trying to determine you know we've got this yes number how likely is it that we can count on that is I in another way of looking at my question or do you see when you look at the data after the fact you are seeing that um it tends to pull better and then it's generally

054your results are 3% less or 3% more whatever it is >> yeah I will say we we don't typically have a problem with um getting people to say no um on the phone and especially online which about half of the survey uh responses were um I think the part where we uh you know the part that's the big question mark for us is all those undecideds, the folks who say, "I really don't know, but on the day of," there's no undecided option on the ballot, right? They're either a yes or a no, or they skip it. Um, and I think finding out where those folks are going to shake out is going to be the most important part. I think what's more frequent than not is for the results of the survey to be within

055the margin of error of what we predicted, especially if the survey is conducted um closer to the date uh that that the election actually happens. So some districts if they have the the resources will do another tracking poll uh in the summer and look at how people are feeling again look at the impact of theformational campaign and often those numbers are are pretty close to what we see uh actually happening in November. >> Okay. So if I'm understanding you correctly then the yes people that are uh are saying yes I'm uh I'm going to support that number is going to track out the same. The question is going to be in that mid group, the undecided group, but we should expect that the yeses should stay yeses and the nos should say nos and that

056tracks out with your experience and your after the election polling. Okay, >> got it. Thank you. Um I have one more question, but I'm not sure if it's for you or for Lisa and Jim. I just wonder what is the cost to the district for running the bond? like what does it cost us just to you know do any of our you know information to the community and um uh you know just having it on the ballot like is there what's the cost for that? >> I can address some of that. Go ahead. Why don't you take a stab and I'll add what >> Yeah, it depends on how aggressively we want to campaign. It depends on um I mean it really depends on do we hire an outside firm to help us with the

057campaign? Do we have enough volunteers to help us with that campaign? So it could be um you know somewhat costly to have somebody outside to really help us get us over the finish line. Um, it would be less costly if we found volunteers, but maybe not as successful because they're not experienced. And then as far as the cost to just put it on the ballot with nothing, that I would have to look to see because I cannot remember, but there is a cost just to put things on the ballot. Um, and then we [clears throat] would also have the cost of working with the financial advisor. So, there is some cost there. And I want to say that would run um I I would have to get a number from her, but I would say

058it would be anywhere it would it would be anywhere from probably a couple thousand dollars just for the financial adviser to run the numbers, come and do some presentations, um work with attorneys to make sure we're getting all the language correct. um because we do have some attorney fees that need to go in to make sure that the um information on the election ballot is legally compliant and all that. So >> yeah, I'm just >> But there's there's like a few thousand dollars in there baseline with no campaign, no nothing. Um >> yeah, I I just would I mean and maybe maybe um you know I I don't mean to um you know spring this on you here, but at some point I just would love to get a range just so we understand what

059we're spending in terms of making this like you know making this decision. I it it's helpful to know like what it's going to cost the district to um to to take the risk of putting it out there. >> Yeah. And we we can run some numbers based on, you know, we do nothing but throw it on to we get the absolute best marketing and then what does that look like in between? >> Yeah. If you recall two years ago, we had looked at if we just [clears throat] had a super aggressive and I want to say it was about 100 grand that they were sharing one to 120 and that was like wow. Um I >> So it stayed the same like no inflation. Let's go. Well, no, that was that was a two years

060ago that but remember that was a very aggressive private company coming in taking this all off our plate because there is there is a there's also a cost to the bandwidth of our team. We have a small you know we have a very effective powerful strong team and we're also running at you know we're feels like a daily sprint. So, like, um, I would I I would want to make sure that we pencil this out for you with some realistic like we're going to need some help and here's what the cost would be. One thing to consider too is there's a district cost that but we can only as far as the marketing piece, but we can only incur district expenses up until the day that you vote to put it on. So, let's just

061say we did a vote on at at the June meeting. So, we basically have five months at district expense to get things going. After that, we can we can't use district monies to publicize this. And that's where we'd have to start leaning on some of our vendors. I I was in communication with a a father of a kid at Jackson um that that does bond work all over the state. And um in fact, I saw him. I tried to introduce you guys at CSBA to him, but he was never there when we when we went. But he he was very excited about, hey, if you need some help for that post post uh vote day, he goes, our our company, because we're hoping to earn some of that some of the the the business here

062in the county, we oftent times will just reach out to all the people that are going to be bidding on this project and say, you know, we need we need two grand from you uh to help rescue try to get this across the line and you're going to be able to bid on this project, but you can't bid on it if we can't get it past that type of and he had just done that for Elkrove and I won't even tell you the amount of number they raised in him one day to help with the Elk Grove piece. Um, but he was, you know, there are people in the community that have kids in our district that are interested in helping us with an area that we're not very versed in going out and asking

063people for money and that's just not something that we do on [laughter] the on the natural. But we we could sit down and pencil out some kind of pre-thinking maybe on what this would be. Jamie, >> two questions. One is just clarifying and forgive me if I missed um the the exact of this. I understand that there were 420 total. Does that mean there were 420 contacts and we still maybe received less or we got 420 total responses? We got 420 total responses and I can actually look up on my screen how many we uh [clears throat] reached out to. It's going to be several thousand. >> Okay. Okay. Thank you. I thought maybe I missed something there. Um Okay. And then my only major question that hasn't already been asked was um one of

064the first things you said this will be a challenging battle, but it's not impossible. Um can you maybe just talk me through that a little bit more? That word challenging is is right there in my face. >> Yeah, for sure. Um I think because we see support initially being within the margin of error and it and it's pretty sticky as as people kind of stay in their corners for the most part. Um that's why we say it's challenging. It's something that in the survey we um you know we provided information in favor and that didn't move people too much. But I think the survey also helped us see what the information is that's the most compelling to people. And if we stay really focused on that, it's possible to drive that number up even more.

065Um it's just that there isn't within the survey a ton of evidence that um we're kind of getting out of that margin of error zone with the 55% threshold. >> So it's kind of a yellow light situation. >> Thank you. I appreciate it. >> Jamie, I I would say we had this conversation with Rand as well. I think for me a challenging aspect of this is we run a really um we have a thoughtful budget. We do not have leaky roofs and when we do we fix them immediately. We don't have broken windows. Our faucets work. I mean literally when I go to schools and I ask kids what is broken on this campus that an adult might not know about. It is the basketball is flat. It's the red one out at second lunch.

066you know, like it's not the bathroom stalls are broken, the the toilets don't flush, there's a leak in my roof. And for me, the challenging aspect of this I've um is how do you thread the line with there's a need and there isn't, you know, like because because they're not seeing that. I think um one of our one of our colleagues, Michelle, has said, you know, she's in her classroom. She's like, "We're killing it with our test scores and we're doing it in a portable. Why do we need a new why would I don't understand why you need a newer classroom? So, I think that's the challenging part for me is just how do you paint a picture that's realistic and people go, "Well, what's the problem?" You know, um >> you need lots of

067pictures. >> What's that? >> You need lots of pictures. Well, that's that's the concerning part is that when we because I was a I was pretty involved in the last campaign as far as walking precincts and the calls and and I did a lot of walking and the the district at that time leaned heavily on pictures and it was pictures of faucets and leaky things and I remember just as a as an employee in San Juan and kids in the district I'm like how on earth did they let this get to that? I don't even care if that's one picture at one site. That is like unacceptable, you know, in my mind. But I'm still out there walking for it. But in the back of my mind, I'm like, man, they're not using their money

068wisely or I'm not paying for my taxes for this. So that picture part is what I'm having a a struggle with. And I know, you know, Lisa and Dustin, everyone has said, get over it. But I also want to just I think they understand where I'm at is just like you know just how do you thread that line where you paint the need but it doesn't look like you've mismanage >> our funds. And then the other piece when we were putting in the solar for me was well this what an excellent selling tool this is going to be for why they should entrust a bond to us. Look what we're able to do without a bond. >> Yeah. >> Imagine what in the rescue imagine what we could do with a bond. And I think

069it has the potential to be the vice versa. >> Yeah. >> You guys are saving $18 million over the next three years. Use that money or the next 30 years. Use that money to build all the portables you can. You So that the challenging word I hear I hear what you're saying, but I'm just looking at it from the messaging piece. Like how do you get out in front of something that really is already people aren't going to understand the portable piece? >> Yeah. >> Because when they drop their kid off it looks fine. >> Yeah. And I think >> my caption you wanted I know you and I have a little different take on this >> and it's not even um different because I I do understand and I was actually just sharing with

070Dustin how happy I am that we have in the last four years our facilities team [clears throat] and our facility budget has fixed three major leaks that has been happening for years um just in the last four years. One was at Green Valley Library that was really bad for many, many years. We finally found a contractor who could who fixed it. Um same thing with um a classroom at Lake View. I want to say it's been 10 years that when it heavily rains, >> just maybe share where the leak is. So it's not it's not like in a bucket in a classroom, it's down the >> It's through the wall. because at at [laughter] Lake View there's um it's on a hillside, right? And so one of the kinder classrooms was buted up against the

071the actually hillside. And so the way that the concrete and all of the, you know, way that the water kind of and everything, it took a really long time to figure out how the water was intruding into the walls of the classroom. Um, we finally after I don't know how many years figured it out, got a contractor out and fixed it. We just went through this big heavy rain in December and nothing. So, um, and then there was a third one at the multi-purpose room at Pleasant Grove. So, the every time it would rain heavily, it would literally come up through the floors um in the multi-purpose room. and we got that fixed two years ago, I think. So, [cough] I'm sharing all this because on the one hand, we do really address the big

072things, right? We're we're we're able to utilize some of the funding that we got from the state modernization dollars, reimbursement, and we have that and we're using it wisely. And so that's really great, but it is very difficult to message this need that they don't see with portables because it's not something that's super visual to see. And I think that's where it's really important for us to um and the messaging that really needs to happen is difficult because it's not necessarily about a leaky roof, but about a roof that will eventually leak. It's it, you know, roofs only last so long and they are really old. We've got HVAC units, they only last so long. They've extended their their lifetime. Portables again, they only, you know, we can only replace sighting so much. But that's

073a really difficult message. And that's where um it's tricky to know if we just throw it on what would happened or do we spend a lot of money with people who know how to message those things. That's what their experience is. That's where their expertise is. >> They're the ones that are going to know how to message these things that are very difficult to make important to the community. >> Totally agree, Lisa. If we if we 100,000 is still a lot of money. If we did it, where would we pull those dollars from? >> Um, that's a that's a really good question. I would say right now we would use our special reserve. I would um so we opened up fund 40 last year or two years ago and we put in we have about

0741.5 million in there. Um, so I would say it would probably come from our special reserve because it's not specifically for construction for the bond. I would need um board approval to pull from that fund for that. But >> that's the account you we brought to you two years ago. I want to say that we're funding it x amount of dollars. I forget what it is. >> Yes. And then we're so right now we are taking um so we did some one-time dollars and we were able to um shift over two years um some onetime funding over into that fund. And right now we are annually putting 500,000 which is an average of our 25 year savings for PG. we're transferring $500,000 a year >> just so that we don't have to say we're have

075to calculate what the savings is every year and um wait for those savings to grow because right now the savings are very low but the savings for the solar increase as P Gen rates increase and we're not paying those increased rates we have a flat rate. >> Gotcha. Miranda, big [clears throat] picture, what what's our downside as an example? And we may have asked you this two years ago. I think we did. If we failed and didn't it didn't pass, how does that affect our probability if we wanted to reconsider it at a presidential election in two years? >> Yeah. Um, you're you're obviously going to have a different set of voters. Um, but a lot of the same voters are going to turn out in 26 and 28. Um, so you'll be kind of

076putting it in front of the same folks twice. Um, I think it's relatively rare that folks succeed on a second try. Um, but it's not impossible. Um, and we could uh run the numbers and and apply some 2028 weights and look at if there's a a market difference between the two if you guys were curious about that thought experiment. C >> can you repeat that? You'd run what? Um, we could run the run uh the numbers again using a 2028 turnout model. So, we could look >> the presidential um >> you you could run this current this current data with a 2028 model. >> Yeah, it wouldn't be perfect, but we could get, >> you know, 80% of the way there. Yeah, >> I I I would be curious to see what that might look

077like just because we we've heard we've this board's done a lot of work on bonds the last four years. And that's a consistent message we've heard from every presenter is that the presidential election does tend to yield more. I do think we've got a lot on our ballot this year with um the governor and this uh being on the ballot. I think there's we are going to get a fairly decent turnout. um >> because it's going to be it's more of a contentious election this year, I would say, than maybe it has been in the past. But yeah, that'd be that'd be intrigued to see that. >> Yeah, we can run that. >> Yep. >> Um Miranda, one more thing. You just said, um, and I think I'm quoting you perfectly, but something to the

078effect of, it's relatively rare to succeed on your second try at a bond. We just did this four years ago and did not succeed. So, I'm also a little stuck there. Can you walk me through that? >> Yeah, I mean I I would say meaning more kind of back-to-back elections. I think um >> two years is is less time in the political mind than >> what would it be? Six or eight. >> What did that look like? How close or not close was it? >> I would need I think I've got that here. Not. >> So, while Jim pulls it up, I do recall the presentation um two years ago heavily discussed that it was um beginning of COVID and that was very influential in the uh polls and in maybe some of the the

079lack thereof marketing and etc. >> Yeah, there was a lot there was a lot of unknowns. It's it's I mean similar to why we didn't go two years ago. was there was a presidential a new president was going to be coming in. There's some current concern about what that would look like. The inflation numbers were significantly worse than they are today. Um and they're they're not great today either. I'm looking up I don't see what are I'll have to get that for you because I'm not finding it. >> Right. While Jim's looking for those numbers, um I had a few questions if I can throw them your way. Mhm. >> Do you know off the top of your head the bond success in a midterm election percentage-wise? >> No, but I could get that figure.

080>> I I do show on that that last November 71 this would have been in 2022. So that bond 71% of the bonds in the state passed. I've got that. I just happened to see that. And I know from our county all all three of the bonds passed during this last election. Black Oak Mine, Pollock Pines, and South Lake Tahoe. South Lake Tahoe has taken the position. They were just slapping it on every two years. I'm like, "You're going to vote for this at some point." And they he said they did a very limited uh advertising campaign. It was just And I asked him when I just saw him. I said, "We're going to be exploring this." Mother Load is trying to figure out to navigate this. They're not gonna be do anything in time

081to get on this November, but they have a tremendous need right now. Um, so we were just talking Bond at the LA at our last meeting. And uh, Pock Pines didn't do uh, much either. And, uh, Black Oak was so small that he Gabe said they literally just went down to the diner and and got the owner on board. And the owner talked to everyone that came in the diner about passing the pond and and they put a sign up at the corner of, you know, one of the major Wentworth Springs out there and and that was about all they did out there and it and it passed. But they also uh those districts, Pollock Pines and um Black Oak Mine in particular, they had issues that they could take pictures of and they were

082unabashedly just like this is where we're at. This is what you want your kids to live in. and they they were both prepared both uh superintendents were prepared to just face the backlash of how did you let it get to this spot. They were new both newer superintendents in the district. So they they didn't feel like they had any skin of the game. So they was easy enough for them to not worry about that commentary because they weren't part of what created it. [clears throat] Randa, with um the years you've been doing this, I is there a chance I can ask you to try to think of a case study that's similar in data points as this one that we are discussing tonight and to share what the outcome was. >> Yeah, I have um

083you know I have other partners who do lots of work across the state on school bonds and I think they have all kinds of data like that. So, if I can defer that question until I can look at that resource and come back to you all, um, I would prefer to do that if possible, just because they've got just so so much experience and I've only been here 10 years. >> Yeah, only only 10 years. >> [laughter] >> Um, if I believe one of my colleagues asked you, what is the percent of the swing that typically votes yes vote no? And you um I would say you'd share that roughly 50% goes one direction, one goes the other. Is that accurate? >> Yeah, that's kind of the rule of thumb. So if in fact [clears

084throat] that's rather consistent, it appears that we have a strong path with the swing with half of the swing vote percent leaning half to the yes and half to the no. It would give us our clear path of passage above 55%. Correct. >> Yeah. And that's, you know, that's predicated on a a communications and information campaign that expresses the need that the staff has been talking about. So, >> am I correct in saying also at a $16 per 100,000 assess that actually gives us a level of passage as well? Correct. Based on the data you revealed. >> Yeah, that's possibly um something that's really helpful as well as the sort of upgrades for every school. But both of those things I think stood out in the survey for me. >> Am I correct that I

085also heard you say that one of the one of the wellsupported subjects was pri priority projects in communities. >> Showing connectivity and association to maybe their neighborhoods of the projects at their respective schools. >> Um the way we phrased it is ensuring every school gets a share of funding to address their needs. I thought I thought there was something on there if you could be assured that there was going to be prior was there one question about the priority um signature project. >> We didn't call it a signature project. I think you called it a priority project. It's on slide >> 20 because I just Where was it? >> There's slide 20. >> Um, let me go to slide 20. >> Oh, sorry. >> Neighborhood schools would receive a project. >> Yeah, there. Yeah. Yep.

086How often um that you're familiar with and if Lisa if you know the answer as well to lean in that a district of multiple schools who passes a passes a bond doesn't relatively equally share those funds across their campuses. Is that common or uncommon? >> Um I think it depends. uh in some places we've had pl you know places where maybe there's a school that's especially old and and rundown and has more needs than others. Um I think it's common that every school would get some portion of the sort of infrastructure funding, but there may be one or two school facilities that are especially in need of upgrades. >> Yeah. And I think that goes to the challenging part, too. Thanks for bringing that up. is we've got a Lake View school that that community

087[clears throat] I think understandably so is going to wonder what's what's the what's this bond going to generate for this campus because it's not brand new but it's the newest versus a rescue jack the Jackson community with their portables. Um so I do think that's a challenging aspect as well. And then just on the term of portables my kids went all through this district. I had no idea Lake View or Lake Forest was portables. You walk by there, they're sitting on the ground in my mind. I I mean, you know, there's a couple out there, but many of those are portables and by our definition, but when you walk by, they just don't they just don't look. Same with Green Valley. You walk by on that campus and it doesn't feel like a portable all

088jacked up with tires or anything like what you would normally say. Um, I did look in 2019 when the survey was done. It was it was the exact it was 57% was what was messaged in 2019 with uh of those saying they would vote yes or >> and it failed. >> So it's interesting how consistent our community has been on this uh on this topic. >> Jim when we >> so >> that ties into my my sorry if I can interrupt ties into my next question. when we did it at that time. Actually, I'm gonna rephrase it for Miranda. The 28% swing, you know, you just answered it for Michael and you answered for myself earlier. It's 50. It can go typically goes 5050. How does that change if we spend 2,000 on outreach versus

089a 100,000 in your opinion? >> Yeah, I think there's a much I mean there's sort of increasing uh gains the the kind of more you invest up to a certain point, right? there's there's kind of only so many voters in the district and only so many times you can send them mailers and that sort of thing, but um there are folks out there who could tell you um more about where that cutoff is. Um but I think uh this is definitely something that I would advise needs needs a strong campaign behind it. This is not something I would just put on the ballot and and hope it passes. And Jim, in 2019, do we know what did we budget for? I keep calling it community outreach. >> I don't have a note on that. I

090don't think Dustin was here. I don't think it was much. The one of the things I've heard is um from our labor partners is they don't want their fingertips dialing phone phones on this one. It was it was there was a lot of community involved, a lot of walking and the the flyers were not I wouldn't say were super professionally done. It was some I mean someone did a really nice job, but it wasn't like they hired a company with a QR code where you could go learn more and and it was also very strategic. We were given um it wasn't this blast campaign. It was you're going to we know who the Democrats are in your community, so you're going to go put this on only on their doorsteps just to make sure they

091got out and voted because I I just remember walking around skipping four houses to go to the address that I was told to put one on. So, they had a very targeted >> campaign. It wasn't a massive blast like we're talking about here. And Dustin, maybe I don't know if you have any other comments. Is that pretty? You went to deliver them. Sorry. So, I walked as well and then had a set list to deliver flyers and then to knock on doors and then to try to talk with folks. And it was it was very targeted based on what was perceived as these are the voters that we want to talk to to try to get to to do it. So, >> at that time, was it going after the swing or was it going

092after the nose? I think it was more the swing uh voters as well as I felt like that some of the ones that were on there were yes voters as well wanting to make sure that they they voted so they wanted to make sure that they were going to get out there. >> Okay. But what I hear you saying is at that point in time it was not a robust campaign. I I felt like they did a nice job, but it was on the backs of volunteers and I think district office staff were were expected to be out walking. >> And we had we had we access social media. We had a few a few videos that we used to try to um to to illustrate the campaign and to um take video of the

093campuses, the needs, that sort of a thing that was put on um Facebook and some other social media spots as well. >> What was the bond amount at that time? It was 757 75 million. >> It was the the the $30 a year that with that 57% passage rate that that was quoted in 2019 was at the $30. >> Okay. So, that's a big part. If we decide to do it, we need to understand what that amount is. What do we want to go for? >> I did want to touch on the um passage rates. So, in March of 2020, um there were 121 local school bonds in California. Only 44 passed. In um general election, um it was a 70 Oops, where'd it go? >> Mind you, 2020 was a presidential election year, >>

094right? In 2022, it was um 71 out of 99 for the general election. And in 2024, it was 205 out of 267. So over 70% passage rates versus the really low 2020 of March. So I I I know it was really difficult for us to hear that our bond didn't pass. And what I'm looking at is it looks like we got just under 40% yeses in 2020. But I do think that that was a really an anomaly year and it was unfortunate for us that we were in that year. Um, but I do want us to really think about overall California has a a really high between 72 to 75 or 77 passage rate typically for school bonds. Um, so I just want to throw that out there, and and now it's kind like so

095I'm I'm having a little bit of trouble with math. Um, so I'm wondering why you think that this is going to be challenging for us if we have 57% yeses, which is like pretty accurate, and we're going to get half of the undecideds, which is like another 13%. So that's putting us at 70. So that would make me feel very confident. >> And then I guess I'm going to kind of just combine my thought together even though they're kind of separate questions. But just to what Lisa was saying, so we had a presentation and we had surveys done before that 2020 election. In that polling, we had 57% yeses and then it was plus or minus the margin of error, but then when we got the actual results back, it was under 40%. So my

096question is, what am I missing? Yeah, >> you're you're telling me that, oh, no, no, those 57% stay and then we get half of the others and the numbers beforehand and after tend to align almost exactly. It's just those undecideds. But we had 57% yes polling before we went in and the end result was under 40. So I guess what happened >> crisis >> and yeah I mean that could be and and is that like some kind of anomaly that we should not be concerned about? >> Yeah, I would say kind of it was a little early. It was before the the kind of lockdowns happened with the pandemic, but I think there was plenty of um unease in the in the in the world uh happening when that vote occurred. I think 2020 is

097definitely um you know, as I think Lisa just ran through the numbers here, it was a it was a really unique year and so I think that's part of what happened there and and something that's not to be um ignored. Uh and then in terms of the the kind of math problem you were mentioning, so we're at 57% yes, our undecideds is 12%. So that's that's kind of within the initial vote. What I was showing you later on is the sort of consistent vote. Um, so that's a a sort of different set of numbers. If we got half of our undecideds, um, we would be at 57 plus 63, which would put us at 55% plus the 5% margin of error, that would put us in a safer place. So, I think that's why we

098say this is kind of a yellow light because if we can actually win over some of those undecided folks with a strong positive campaign, we're in a good position. And I think hearing that 2019 we were at 57, we were at 57 in 2024, we're at 57 in 2026 and I just took a look at the 2028 numbers and we were at 58. Um there's just a lot of consistency with the voters in your community and it's just about telling that story of need to make sure that those undecided folks actually fill in the yes bubble when the time comes. Rand, I'm a big believer in track record and and we understand going back, you know, we keep using the word anomaly, right? >> Um, but do you have a track record with other municipalities,

099other school districts where you can show similar results? you know, you know, you you you're you the the the survey said, you know, 54 to 60% whatever those numbers are. Uh the district went for the bond and this was the the result. >> Yeah. >> Good, bad, ugly. Where did the true percentage come in after uh the actual measure was put forward? Do you have that that you could share with us as a district? >> Yeah, I can dig that up. I think we did a pretty comprehensive um rundown of that in 2024 and probably there have been some scattered elections since then, but 2024 will have a lot of numbers that I can share with uh staff. >> Okay. >> And just not to put Miranda on the spot here, but they provide a

100moment in time and then there's a lot of work we got to do. Yeah. On our end. So they they had a level of predictability and if the district just decided to slap it on like South Lake Tahoe did and it failed. >> Yeah. >> And they slap it on again and it finally passed versus versus if you have a very coordinated and thoughtful professional approach, they don't have any ownership in that part. No doubt about it. So yeah, >> and you can throw I mean may maybe you can preface that Miranda and I asked that question earlier, right? >> Like I get that that affects the probability. you know, you throw a sign up, put in, you know, you invest two grand versus a 100 grand. Understanding that as well. >> Yeah. >> And

101how that may have uh trended that those results would be good to know as well. >> Yep. I know Michael's been want to ask questions. >> No, it's all right. Go ahead. I was just going to share that there's there I have in talking with colleagues and then I I was at uh NorCal Soups um Thursday and Friday and I asked a few of them that have run bonds and there was a there was a contingent of them that said we put up very little signage just because we didn't want the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association to get in front of us. So it was very just like it's out there and they didn't want to run a campaign because they were concerned about in their community a a you know vicious reaction to that with

102an anti- campaign they got really well established and run. So, um I think there are, you know, it could be played a lot of different ways, but I I trust Miranda when she says this the pathway to victory is is uh well, there's pathway to victory, pathway to defeat. Pathway to defeat is paved and the pathway to victory is a cobblestone that we're going to have to navigate and be real thoughtful with it. And I think having a professional approach to it, um, I think we're going to have to pencil that out for you so that you can get an idea of what that cost is going to look like or could look like. I think it's fair to say also that our campaign techniques probably have advanced from 2019 to present day don't necessarily

103rely so many feet on the steps on the ground as much as can be achieved through creative um approaches and reaching people and targeting people based on demographics, high voter propensities um particular parties so on so forth. So >> sounds like a kids helping kids uh we could reach out to Right. [laughter] Um, okay. Any other questions? >> Thank you, Miranda. >> Thank you. >> Yeah, thank you very much. Good to see you. >> Likewise. >> Thanks, Miranda. >> Bye. >> Okay. Um, >> can I just ask our team, is there Lisa, Dustin, are there any salient questions that you feel like you need to put out there or ask? And then I just also want are there questions on the matrix there in the themes that you don't that you feel like well maybe

104that'll be my first question is um so be thinking if you have if either of you have one, but I would be curious on the themes and that matrix are the themes that are listed. Do you feel like you have enough data to take a stab at where you where you sit, not where anyone I mean based on the people you know, the circles you run in and your own knowledge, this is where I I feel like I can score this within this fairly. Okay. Or is there is there more data that you would need to complete that matrix? And you're not putting your name on this matrix. You're just completing it and feeling like I could have a solid. Yep. I feel comfortable marking it. >> Before we get there, can I ask a

105question? >> Yeah. >> Um not necessarily a question, but another thing that I heard that I'm a little um I I heard a couple times um in these past elections, California has a very high percentage pass rate of these bonds. my brain immediately says, "But our county and our district doesn't vote the same way that most of California votes." And so to me, that's a little bit concerning. >> Yeah. Does anybody share that same concern or am I completely on >> I think she she prefaced that with this. >> So I I would say um yes, I understand the concern and I would also say that we could probably get some data that demonstrates the majority of the bonds that have gone out in our county for school bonds have passed. I mean, Mother Loads

106passed in 2016. >> Um, Black Oak Mines just passed and I think they had another one passed not shortly before. >> The high schools had two bonds passed. They didn't pass in 2020, but I think they went back out >> the following two years and it passed. Um, >> has passed what, like that was like two years ago. So, I I understand the concern, but I have rarely heard outside of 20120 where a school bond in our county didn't pass. What I could see as a valuable data point or point of information is working from county and then outward to the state is how many communities are actually or how many districts are assessing residents on multiple bonds at the same time. >> I don't know. I'm not sure. I I don't >> how easily

107I could track that down. I I thought you were going a different way with that. The um so I'll answer what what where I thought you were going, but I'm not sure. I'll I can see if I can find that if there's a database on that. I thought you were going to say what who in our county or in our region is considering going out for a bond in 2028. I will tell you the high school district is considering a bond in 2028. And that was one of the other detriments on the um for us when we went out in 2020 was there was two high school districts there. The comm the um the Los Rios bond was on there and so was the state. Yeah. So there's a lot of like you're voting for

108if you're pro bond, you're voting for four bonds that year that were going to land on your tax records. That was really unfortunate. Uh, no one right now in the county is going out for a bond um in 2026. We would be the only bond um out there and and really it doesn't matter what the other K8s do. But if the high school's on there and we're on there, I I I mean, boy, that's a tough not to correct the community service district. I've reached out to them and they have not been they've been non-committal. I've even talked to R Pimentel, the president about it. and he says, "Well, we're we're exploring." So, they're they might be where we're at, where he just doesn't want, but if they go out in 2026, that's not a

109great thing for us, too. But he did say they were he felt like they were leaning more towards trying to get on the presidential ballot because it does have a higher. So if if we were to wait another two years and just say let's go on the presidential that the odds of us being on there with three with two other the high that would be impactful to us the high school and the um community service district is much much higher than it is to go out if we went out in 2026. Yeah >> we already have >> Yeah. when we were at the CSBA conference, I believe another or two trustees potentially attended um a workshop on on bonds. And I approached the presenters at the end and specifically just asked what is well I

110first asked if if we can use bond money to pay off previous bond to maintain only one bond, right? and he didn't seem to think that that was possible to use bond money to do that. But then but then followed up by saying it it is more uncommon that there are districts especially districts of sizes that don't have more that h it is more uncommon that they don't have more than one bond assessed to residents. It's not uncommon in that case. So let's just say that that we agree that we want to give our voters that decision-making power in 2026 and they in fact vote in favor of a bond and we have one seven years expires. Is that is that the length of our previous? So for seven years our residents would be assessed

111by rescue twice. He he said that that's not an un it's not an anomaly. It's not uncommon. However, um >> one one thing to add to that that you and I were talking about was um the our bond if we were to pass a new bond, there's a there's a lag before it just hits. So, if we could get out in front of families like, hey, I know you're going to have two on, but it's going to take us two years to get >> an architect and the planning and the sales. So now you're half and then we're not even going to take all 70 million immediately. We're going to take >> what were your distributions Lisa was like 15 15 or 20. So we're taking a third of that not five years out and

112then seven years out we're taking the next third and that bond falls off. So, you know, how do you paint a picture for someone that >> right >> I'm not taking on the full $30 like there's going to be a little bit of an overlap? a graphic of some of some sort for for um >> marketing or maybe just educating I think would have great value to our residents to to visually see some type of >> timetable of laps um and what that looks like >> dollars and cents to their household on a day on a on monthly or annual basis. I think there's value in that. I think ultimately and I really struggled with this last time it came before us, but I think ultimately um and I only could speak for myself as

113a trustee that we have done an amazing job um in being great listeners to start with. I mean, I think our superintendent and cabinet have done an incredible job in providing us thorough data um from reputable sources and I think um really well educated and ultimately in the end as a trustee I feel as if the information that I have been shared with I have to have enough confidence in that this is now in the hands of our community to make a decision if they in fact want this imposed upon them or just that's their voting power. That's that's their ability. Um, I also have a a feeling as if those who have a great interest in um a bond being passed in the modernization of some of their schools or the improvements to some

114of the schools and by not allowing for me as a trustee to allow for this to move on to them is almost not giving them the opportunity to vote in favor of something that they in fact want. Um, and so I I guess I've I've really um analyzed what my role as a trustee is when it comes to bonds. Um, and I'm really simply just a conduit of taking in information, finding finding the the the um the appropriate um value in it to give my community members the opportunity to vote yes or no if they want this imposed upon them. And I think that's kind of where I'm at with it. And I I think I'll continue to reserve my judgment until we have some of these final pieces of information that we're seeking collectively

115that we've asked Miranda and also a couple to our to our cabinet. And then I think um I I am ready to move forward once I have those to make some decisions in my opinion. Can I ask for um some direction too? >> At u the last time we chatted about the bond, there was a little bit of question about whether or not we would still move forward with a facility master plan and so I have paused that just based on um not knowing really where this was going to go. Is there a desire from the board for me to move forward with that just so we have a current assessment? They're always good to have. They they can get a little expensive, but they're always good for us to have, especially with all of

116the new stuff that we have, just to see where we're at with current construction costs um and current needs, or do we want to wait until we make a decision regarding moving forward with the bond before I update a facility master plan? >> Yeah. Make sure you turn your mic on. How dated is is what we have now and how much would that cost? >> So, it is um the last one was from 2022. Well, it really was the end of 2021. >> Okay. >> Um I think it was board approved in 2022. And that is an excellent question. As far as the cost, I do have an estimate. He said, "Didn't we receive a presentation prior to our last bond conversation?" >> And wasn't our last bond conversation in 2020? >> Was 2022 the

117last discussion or 2024? >> It would have been 2023 when we were having the conversation. >> Yeah. Okay. So, right. >> Yeah. restoration. So the um >> so we received a presentation three years ago on our current condition of our facilities >> and our draft uh facility master plan was dated 2022 and approved by the board in 2023. So for me, I suppose I would struggle in answering that question without um I guess an answer I would seek is, you know, first off, how often are these evaluations of facilities done? If in fact it's predicated based on having a more accurate understanding of costs, can't we simply identify what the increase in costs have escalated over the years and assume that can be imposed on our uh suggested maintenance? >> Well, uh um so I

118don't always know what new portables cost, what new I mean that's timely to to know how much construction costs you're looking at. um you know foundations that they have to do. So there's groundwork, there's lots of things that go into getting an estimate for those things that is not my expertise as far as >> I wasn't necessarily asking what what work needs to be done as much as what is the standard increase in in uh >> escalation like escalation. Exa Exactly. Um they've been varying, but I can tell you lately they've been averaging between 10 and 15% a year. >> Okay. >> Um so, you know, we we could just assume that at this point. Um >> so we're looking at a minimum of 30% increase in costs based on our last evaluation. By the

119time Yeah. By the time we actually would have a bond, I would say that'd probably be a fairly decent estimate. >> Michael, from my from my experience being in this industry, I think it's very hard to put a percentile, especially when we're talking portables that are arguably past their shelf life. >> Stuff just comes up. >> Yeah. you know, it's uh when it comes to deferred maintenance on older structures, I think it's my opinion, it's hard to put a percent. I think it varies. >> I and I don't I don't want to speak for uh Michael, but I what I was understanding his question was more in relation to do we need to do another uh you know update to our plan and he was saying well has has our have our needs changed so

120much? Are they pretty much the same ones? and the update is just going to give us a higher number where we could estimate. In other words, had something catastrophically changed on our campuses that it's going to be completely different. >> So, it's not going to be catastrophically different. Um, because our, you know, the outline of our campus is somewhat similar. the needs are somewhat similar, but I would say we would want to reflect what is the most upto-date because things do age over time and what may not have needed replacement may need replacement. Um, you know, so the facility master plan does two things outside of just looking at the buildings themselves. It also provides the construction costs and then it also updates the um amount of state matching funds. Now, could could we get

121those elsewhere? Potentially. And that's why I I prefer always having like if we're going to if we're going to go do it bond and maybe we just decide to wait until we know that that's where we want to go. Um, but it is not uncommon for every couple of years you update your facility master plan. So, I'm I'm completely fine waiting until we have more information because it does run about $50,000 for an updated plan that is comprehensive like we would want and need. So, I'm fine waiting and when we have another discussion, we can revisit that. Um, but and I'm also happy to share the last one with you all. And maybe I said I would and I didn't yet, but I'm happy to reshare that one because now as I'm saying that out

122loud, I'm thinking, did I say that already before? >> Um, so we can get you the most recent facility master plan that you can peruse and then you can just kind of see what it entails and then if there's um a desire at the next meeting. I just wanted to throw that out there so that you know we have not gone into contract to to do a new one yet. Um, and if there's a desire for us at some point to update that, >> what's the timing once we would approve that? And I would think >> it takes a couple months. >> Okay. Uh it it I mean generally what they will do is they will meet with staff at every site including our you know district office here, our transportation office, our food service

123um and they will go through and meet with staff to see where where are the needs. So it's not just their eyes on something but what are the needs of the site? Um much like when you think about if someone was just to visually go up to Green Valley four years ago, they would not have just necessarily seen the need for another TK um and move the staff room. So, it's how are our needs changing? A lot of our needs are changing with the increase in TK and the fact that we don't have restrooms in every TK and kinder classroom. And so that's a big need that we need to address in a facility master plan because that does become an issue when you've got kinders in and then you've got TKers having to walk

124to restrooms or you know you've got even kinders because there's more kinder classrooms. So, it's things like that that you would find in a facility master plan. And as those numbers continue to grow compared to what it was in 2022, are there any other costs we're missing? Because I feel like it's it's it's not 100, it's 100 plus 50. Really, we're going to want to do that to provide proper due diligence. you know, we owe it, you know, we owe it to our taxpayers to have that done in have it in place before we go out and bond. So really, it's 100 my mind I'm thinking 150 maximum. >> Yeah, I think when we bring back what those numbers are going to range because we want to make sure we include whatever the um county

125fees are for putting the measure on the ballot. We need to include costs for our FS um financial advisor as well who's going to run all the numbers who's going to there's attorneys that need to be involved as well. So we'll we'll pull all those numbers and get some estimates. >> You can't just take care of you can't take care of everything personally. Sir, >> I wish I had my law degree. If I had gotten my law degree what I wanted to, we would have been set. [laughter] >> All right. Are there any other uh questions or inquiries from cabinet you need from the board at this time? >> I I would just want to share that in my mind our next steps are um I'd like to collect these matrixes. If you don't feel

126comfortable tonight handing them to me, there's it's not time sensitive. So, if you just want to have some time to process it, but I would like to get those um from you. I will reach out probably tomorrow with just an offer to meet one-on-one with anyone that just wants to just chat through their thinking um with me. And if you have specific questions that you'd like me to answer the questions, I've captured the questions. There are quite a few here. I'm looking at at least probably 10. Um 66% of our team is gone the next three days at a negotiator symposium. We have an active investigation going on next week. We have a math adoption pilot that is two days where staff is out of the office. Uh Lisa is down our fiscal analyst. So

127our bandwidth right now is like the rubber band I feel is as tight as it can be. So we're really good I think about getting feedback back questions back to you. This you're just going to have to be patient on these questions because they're going to take us a little bit of time. And we also have to on some of these we're going to have to wait for people to get back to us. So I just want to set expectations like you're not going to get an email with a with a graph and everything by the end of the week. That's it. It it may be within two weeks. Um yeah, >> I'm filling out not what not what >> just where you where you think. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's just your assessment of and

128if and if I've missed the mark on any of that and you like you really should just put a note on there that says Jim you didn't even you whiffed >> you think the voters feel right now >> and and just from your perspective >> I >> and some of those are more specific to how do you feel? I mean there's a couple >> Yeah. >> Um I I'm still just but yeah I think the only information um that would just help me answer like the first one. So, you'll notice I might be I don't I don't care. You can identify this one as mine, but like there's kind of there's kind of a range. I don't I understand what Lisa was saying about, you know, COVID and whatnot, but that was that's that I

129I was stunned when we had our meeting and it was like 57%. You know, this and I said, "Well, okay, the margin of error is five, so it could drop below." And and when we got the results, >> yeah, >> it wasn't like I mean, if it had been 53%. I got you. No, that that's that's what you that's >> Yes. >> It was so it was very significantly different. So that's what and maybe I don't know maybe I'm not articulating the questions. I'm like if and again I I hear the um you know COVID but I'm like man does co explain that much of a >> I don't think that was co as much as the level of unpredictability that was in front of us at the time. I mean there's mmings of a

130virus in China. Inflation was uh what let's see when that was that would have been 2019. I'm trying to think what was going on there. I don't think our I think our state was entering into um I think we were starting to see deficit some significant def deficit spending because Brown had just exited if I'm not mistaken or maybe that was the end of him. I remember I I can just tell you I had kids in the district. My wife was a teacher in the district and there was a length lengthy uh and polite conversations between my wife and I as how we were going to vote on that initiative. And I can't recall what it was, but I vividly remember for the first time in my life going, I'm not sure I'm going to

131vote on this because of my own fiscal like questions about what was out there. But I I can't for the life of me remember what it was. >> Yeah. Yeah, but I remember I'm always pro pro school and that was one where I was going, what am I are we going to cancel each other out? Are you going to get on my like what are we doing here? >> But does anyone else remember what was going on then? >> Oh, I I know that the >> that was a long time ago. [laughter] >> There was just a lot of um unpredictability. >> It was just before everything completely shut down, but I think everybody knew this >> something was >> was coming. And um there was also I know it was for schools anyways uh

132I don't I don't remember I don't really know about how the private sector was really feeling at that point but I know for schools just before COVID there was a big deficit and we were really going to get hit hard budget-wise and what ended up saving us was all the co relief that came in. >> That's true. Yes. Um, so but we didn't know about all that COVID relief money at at the time that the elections were. >> What was the date? What was the date of that election? >> Yeah, >> it's the first Tuesday after the first Monday. >> Oh, it was the March. >> Yeah. >> Oh, it was the March election. >> Oh, it was the March. >> Yeah, that >> we're not in a global pandemic. >> No, we we but

133we knew that that I didn't realize the election was on March 4th. We closed seven days later. >> Yeah. >> So I mean >> the entire state >> we were in conversations about >> after after that >> no prior to that in education. >> Yeah. >> We were meeting with our unions that wanted us cuz now you remember Elk Grove closed >> I think three weeks before the state even closed two. >> They did. They don't shut down until like >> Right. But but we already knew coming. you're you're you're hearing about CO in China. You're it was already I remember I was my folks in January and February like please stock your because they always have like a muffin and something. I'm like there's something going on. >> Let's just be thoughtful. I forgot.

134I was thinking that was in November that but yeah, it was definitely >> already aware the world was at the end of March. >> Yes. No, you weren't aware that aware, but you knew something was happen shut down, but felt like that was too early in it, but I hear >> Yeah, it was it was the there was so much unknown that week before. >> Yeah. >> Um there was also a state school bond on the ballot that also didn't pass that year >> and we had the high school bond was on that same year. So, there were three school bonds on all at one time. And none neither none of them passed. >> Everybody fro. >> Does anyone have any other questions related to the current agenda subject? >> Okay. Therefore, that has us

135moving to German. Miss White.